Pro Pundits - Mark
16 October 2020 3031 comments
Mark Mark
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Mark Sutherns explains why he’s sticking to his guns amid the Liverpool defensive firesale.


I remain defiant when it comes to Liverpool’s full-backs. An avalanche of goals is flushing funds from Fantasy Premier League defences and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andy Robertson (£7.0m) are rapidly being classified as disposable. But I’m not having it.

I’m not denying the logic. Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches since the restart and the injury to Alisson (£6.0m), a crucial component in Jurgen Klopp’s defensive jigsaw, nudges a hapless Adrian (£4.5m) into the firing line.

That worrying scenario provides a sub-plot to a season that, so far, has seen 144 goals scored, a rate of 3.79 goals per game. That’s a ridiculous figure: the record for a Premier League season was set in 1992/93 when we witnessed a rate of 2.65 goals per game.

So FPL managers are reassessing their team structure and flooding to the major benefactors of the goal rush, notably Spurs’ Harry Kane (£10.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

Expensive defenders are being sacrificed and, should Alexander-Arnold and Robertson fail to return in Saturday’s Merseyside derby, the evacuation will only gather pace.

But the recent explosion from the Spurs pair isn’t enough to convince me to give up on my two defensive investments. I may well move funds from Lucas Digne (£6.1m) and Reece James (£5.1m) and replace them with £4.5m options, but I’m remaining steadfast on the Liverpool full-backs.

At this stage, FPL managers normally start to seek out trends and patterns vital to drive our decisions – our transfers, our early-season Wildcards.

But we’ve never experienced a start to the season like this. We’re in the midst of something extreme that, to my mind, makes it impossible to find the comforting foothold of reliable data and form.

So with just this small and extraordinary sample of matches as my reference, I’m refusing to write off a player who, prior to Gameweek 1, was the first name on almost every FPL teamsheet.

At the time of writing, over almost 240,000 managers have sold Alexander-Arnold heading into Saturday’s deadline.

Admittedly, his performances have contributed to that trend. He has been short of his best by some margin and has been strangely peripheral to Liverpool’s play. However, Alexander-Arnold’s numbers remain impressive: only West Ham’s Ryan Fredericks (£4.4m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) have created more chances among players in his Fantasy position, and with seven efforts on goal, no defender has bettered his direct threat. If you are brave enough to use data given the bizarre four Gameweeks we’ve had, there’s little in the numbers to drive you to sell.

Alexander-Arnold is a player that has provided 28 assists and five goals in his previous two campaigns, with his points tally improving from 185 points to 210. Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) and Jack Grealish (£7.1m) have created more chances and on Boxing Day last year, the right-back coupled that creativity with an eye for goal to haul of 24-points, a record for a defender in the history of FPL.

Is this really an asset we can reject on the basis of four bizarre Gameweeks?

On Liverpool’s opposite flank, Robertson appears to be reaching new levels as an attacking outlet. He’s overshadowed Alexander-Arnold since the restart, creating more chances (22 vs 20) and more big chances (six versus three), while he’s surely passed the eye test.

The Scot is pouring forward on the left flank, overlapping Mane time and time again. He already has a first goal to his name and there should be more to come.

Fabinho bolsters Liverpool defence as Werner shows promise ahead of West Brom

Liverpool will be backed to be second only to Manchester City for goals scored again this season and, collectively, their full-backs have provided 34% of the assists since the start of the 2018/19 season.

So while the chances of clean sheets in the short-term may be diminished by Adrian’s tenure, Klopp’s side will have to score more goals to win matches and that will surely benefit their primary source of creativity.

And I’m not giving up on defensive returns, either.

We have to expect Klopp to react to the Villa Park mauling. He will surely focus on shutting down the gaps that were exploited in that defeat. The return of Jordan Henderson (£5.4m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) – both vital to Liverpool’s pressing game that denies opponents the time to exploit a high line – must also be factored in.

That aforementioned record of four clean sheets from 13 outings includes eight matches when the title was almost in the bag. But Liverpool cannot show any complacency now. Pep Guardiola will demand that his City side match Liverpool’s own relentless consistency, so Klopp will know that he has to quickly find a solution to their defensive frailties.

The fixture list convinces me that I can give him time.

Liverpool face just a Gameweek 8 trip to the Etihad and a home clash with Spurs in Gameweek 13 as major tests before the deadline for the first Wildcard.

So for this FPL manager, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson remain at the status they held before the madness ensued: unique assets who can present outstanding value.

They are investments worthy of that extra five million, particularly when I can compensate for that spend by investigating mid-price assets in attacking areas. We’ve already seen that Grealish, James Rodriguez (£7.6m), Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) are options that offer the potential of returns that keep pace or even better the top tier players.

It’s going to take a Jose Mourinho team to go on scoring five and six goals a game to convince me otherwise. At that point, the madness shifts to a whole new level.


Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,031 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Kanteisking
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Hi all on a wildcard. Do I ditch Mitchell considering all the returning palace defenders or keep and hope with a bit of coin in the bank to upgrade If need be

    1. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      I ditched on mine

    2. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      no

    3. ChampChomp
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      I'm ditching

      1. Eastman
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Who for at 4m?

        1. ChampChomp
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 10 hours ago

          No starters at 4m anymore. Killman would be my choice

  2. JIMMY TUGGINS
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Start Lamptey or Dallas?

    1. King H
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Lamptey

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Lamptey

  3. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    KDB out for >

    a) Sterling
    b) Son
    c) Grealish

    1. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Son for me

  4. KDB4PREZ
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    RMWCT please and thank you.

    Martinez/Forster

    Taa/Semedo/Lamptey/Dallas/3.9

    Salah/Son/Pulisic/Grealish/Trossard

    Kane/Richarlison/Brewster

    1. Shark Team
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      9/10

  5. Shark Team
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    1)Marcal + TAA
    2)Semedo + Robertson

    1. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      2

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      2 just about

  6. In Bale We Trust
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    KDB to Sterling worth a hit? Otherwise have to play KWP or Bissouma...

    1. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Possibly yeah

  7. Mortal.Swinbat
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Ings > Kane for a -4?

    1. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Na

      1. KDB4PREZ
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Not for me

  8. Kodap
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Benching KDB for a week.. who would you play instead?

    A. Burke
    B. Lamptey
    C. Dallas

    1. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      B

  9. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Should I get Kane in for Vardy for a hit?

    Cheers!

    1. Shark Team
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Vardy will score next gw but Kane will too so idk

    2. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      U would need a minimjm 1 assist to break even

  10. Feed tha Sheep
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    McCarthy
    TAA Taylor Saiss
    KDB Foden Salah Soucek
    DCL Werner Wilson

    A. KDB > Son
    B. A plus Werner > Kane (-4)
    C. Other

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      A seems fine

  11. Kingtekkerz
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Which move would you do?
    2FTs
    A) KDB, Jimenez—> Grealish, Kane
    B) KDB—>Grealish

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      A

    2. Feed tha Sheep
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      A

  12. Ramsays Raw Steak
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Can i bench james rand play brewster?
    It doesnt look like i can
    Emotionally

  13. Shark Team
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Captain?
    1)Salah
    2)Son
    3)Kane

    Bench?
    1)Semedo
    2)Lamptey
    3)Rodriguez

    Thanks!

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      3
      Pass

    2. _Ninja_
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      3
      2

    3. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      3
      2

  14. arndff_
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    4th Oct: Bruno to Son -> 0FT

    Then, KdB injured.

    That will hurt BUT I can be pissed off at myself only.

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      That happens after every national break
      Just 1 injury is fine

      1. arndff_
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 11 hours ago

        Yup but one must not rush like that.

        1. ZeBestee
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 10 hours ago

          You still got that .2 rise I reckon, so thats a positive.

          1. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 10 hours ago

            Yeah, caught up the 1st rise but is that the most important thing? Points > pounds.

            Asked this Q on the previous page but... would you WC this team?

            McCarthy
            TAA Justin Ayling
            Salah KdB* Son Podence
            Jimenez DCL Mitro

            Steer Bissouma Mitchell Taylor

            0FT, 2.5M ITB

            1. ZeBestee
              • 12 Years
              6 years, 10 hours ago

              Not a bad team mate, think you can bide more time for now.

              Maybe you do; Kdb 》 Salah and

              1. ZeBestee
                • 12 Years
                6 years, 10 hours ago

                Kdb 》 Mane *

                1. arndff_
                  • 14 Years
                  6 years, 10 hours ago

                  If I go for Mane, I won't be able to do: Podence to JamRod next GW, so I'm looking for a KdB replacement up to 11.5 MAX.

                  1. ZeBestee
                    • 12 Years
                    6 years, 10 hours ago

                    Hames is not bad, he can fill the gap long term as well. Grealish also in for a shout, he is Villa's talisman. I think for Pulisic I will give him time and see how Chelsea do before jumping to their assets. But with Mane, you are almost guaranteed returns every other gw til Kdb is back.

  15. MY DJ NAME IS PIMP CURRY
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Is Mitchell retaining his spot that unlikely? PVA's contract expires in the summer, he could even be out in Jan. Roy trusted AWB when he was an unknown and Mitchell's performances don't really warrant dropping him.

    I suppose the question is, is Mitchell worth that 0.1 on the off chance that he starts a few games here and there?

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Mitchell was terrible against Chelsea, so it depends if Roy's gives the kid another go or goes for experience

  16. nerd_is_the_werd
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Anyone know how long De Bruyne could be out for?

    1. nerd_is_the_werd
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      And also..

      De Bruyne to Mane?

    2. ChampChomp
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      No one knows exactly. I've seen 2 weeks rumoured

    3. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Pep doesnt know

  17. ChampChomp
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Zouma or Saiss or any better defender for 5m?

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Fixture saiss

  18. Bagayokeso
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Start Brewster or Soucek?

    1. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Brewster

  19. ZTF
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Start 2 from Ziyech, Barkley and Brewster in draft

    1. Mane
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 11 hours ago

      Barkley Brewster

      1. ZTF
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Was thinking the same. Could also bring in Webster and start him.

    2. Old Bull
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Ziyech/Brewster for me

      1. ZTF
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Hmm. Do you reckon Ziyech gets enough minutes to make it worthwhile?

        1. Old Bull
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 10 hours ago

          Gotta happen for him some time

  20. Catastrophe
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Who to bench?

    A) Justin (AVL)
    B) Saiss (lee)
    C) Digne (LIV)
    D) Brewster (FUL)

    Cheers..

    1. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      A

  21. STHH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Happy with my WC team but just need to work out which three of these five defenders I should field this weekend:

    - Robertson
    - Van Aanholt
    - Dallas
    - Saiss
    - Chilwell

    I'm leaning towards Dallas, Chilwell and Van Aanholt but it feels odd to bench Robertson, even if it's likely he'll replace PVA as a sub.

    1. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      I’d play Robbo. Maybe in place of Chilwell who is coming off an injury and may not play the entire game

    2. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Robertson Van Aanholt Chilwell

      1. Belli2007
        • 16 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        This is a very expensive defence if your only ever playing 3

        1. STHH
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 10 hours ago

          I had money in the bank but made a late switch to PVA from KWP. I've still got Kane, Son, DCL, Rodriguez, Grealish and Salah further forward...

          1. Belli2007
            • 16 Years
            6 years, 10 hours ago

            Cant argue with that

            1. STHH
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              6 years, 10 hours ago

              Thanks everyone for your help! There are so many possibilities...

  22. Nightf0x
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    Kdb davis -4 to which duo? Itb 18.4

    A) Ings antonio kun vardy
    B) Puli grealish jrod barnes foden sterling

  23. cravencottage
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 11 hours ago

    A couple of questions as I finalize my team:

    A) Dallas
    B) Lamptey

    1) Saiss and KWP (5th defender)
    2) Semedo and Mitchell (5th defender)

    1. STHH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      I'm keen on Dallas and have him in my team. Lamptey rarely plays 90 minutes and Dallas can expose the Wolves defence.

      I've transferred out Mitchell as he's unlikely to play. PVA has confirmed on Twitter that he's back, so a lot of people with Mitchell and Burnley's Dunne could be exposed this weekend or next.

  24. Salah(c)
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    guys am i g2g

    pickford

    saiss vvd justin

    sterling salah foden podence jrod

    kane(c) jimi

    macey ayling mitchell brewster

    0.0 1ft left

    1. Sterling Malory
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      I'd take a punt on Brewster over Podence, home to Fulham, might start.

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Gtg gl

  25. bso
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Who of 4.5 def start for CP?
    Thanks

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      A regular starter.

    2. ZTF
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Sakho is 4.5 right?

      1. bso
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Not sure he will keep starting now the first choice def is back...he only played 900+ mins last year.

  26. Dwotle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Final WC dilemma: Sterling (C) and Watkins, or Kane (C) and Grealish? Already own Son.

  27. grooveymatt65
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Hi guys How does WC team look?

    My team is:

    Martinez Martin

    Chillwell, Robertson, Justin, Mitchell Bernado

    Salah Son(c) Pulisic Grealish Bissouma

    Kane Wilson DCL

    (1.3 itb)

    what do you guys think? I did have Zaha instead of Grealish but took him out as apparently he's a doubt.

    thanks!!!!

    1. Dwotle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Looks great GTG

  28. ZeBestee
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Is Brewster going to start this week?

    1. Old Bull
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Read that he’s going to feature

      1. ZeBestee
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 10 hours ago

        Cheers

  29. Sterling Malory
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Would you drop Lacazette for Cavani in 6 man draft league?

    Rest of team looks like this.

    Lloris
    TAA Chilwell AWB
    Sterling Havertz Mahrez Willian
    DCL Jimi Laca
    Pickford Mount Bellerin Pereira

  30. Kodap
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 10 hours ago

    Final decision, captain one...

    A. Salah
    B. Son
    C. DCL

    1. Kanteisking
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 10 hours ago

      Sonnnnt