Pro Pundits - Mark
16 October 2020 3031 comments
Mark Mark
Share:

Mark Sutherns explains why he’s sticking to his guns amid the Liverpool defensive firesale.


I remain defiant when it comes to Liverpool’s full-backs. An avalanche of goals is flushing funds from Fantasy Premier League defences and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andy Robertson (£7.0m) are rapidly being classified as disposable. But I’m not having it.

I’m not denying the logic. Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches since the restart and the injury to Alisson (£6.0m), a crucial component in Jurgen Klopp’s defensive jigsaw, nudges a hapless Adrian (£4.5m) into the firing line.

That worrying scenario provides a sub-plot to a season that, so far, has seen 144 goals scored, a rate of 3.79 goals per game. That’s a ridiculous figure: the record for a Premier League season was set in 1992/93 when we witnessed a rate of 2.65 goals per game.

So FPL managers are reassessing their team structure and flooding to the major benefactors of the goal rush, notably Spurs’ Harry Kane (£10.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

Expensive defenders are being sacrificed and, should Alexander-Arnold and Robertson fail to return in Saturday’s Merseyside derby, the evacuation will only gather pace.

But the recent explosion from the Spurs pair isn’t enough to convince me to give up on my two defensive investments. I may well move funds from Lucas Digne (£6.1m) and Reece James (£5.1m) and replace them with £4.5m options, but I’m remaining steadfast on the Liverpool full-backs.

At this stage, FPL managers normally start to seek out trends and patterns vital to drive our decisions – our transfers, our early-season Wildcards.

But we’ve never experienced a start to the season like this. We’re in the midst of something extreme that, to my mind, makes it impossible to find the comforting foothold of reliable data and form.

So with just this small and extraordinary sample of matches as my reference, I’m refusing to write off a player who, prior to Gameweek 1, was the first name on almost every FPL teamsheet.

At the time of writing, over almost 240,000 managers have sold Alexander-Arnold heading into Saturday’s deadline.

Admittedly, his performances have contributed to that trend. He has been short of his best by some margin and has been strangely peripheral to Liverpool’s play. However, Alexander-Arnold’s numbers remain impressive: only West Ham’s Ryan Fredericks (£4.4m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) have created more chances among players in his Fantasy position, and with seven efforts on goal, no defender has bettered his direct threat. If you are brave enough to use data given the bizarre four Gameweeks we’ve had, there’s little in the numbers to drive you to sell.

Alexander-Arnold is a player that has provided 28 assists and five goals in his previous two campaigns, with his points tally improving from 185 points to 210. Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) and Jack Grealish (£7.1m) have created more chances and on Boxing Day last year, the right-back coupled that creativity with an eye for goal to haul of 24-points, a record for a defender in the history of FPL.

Is this really an asset we can reject on the basis of four bizarre Gameweeks?

On Liverpool’s opposite flank, Robertson appears to be reaching new levels as an attacking outlet. He’s overshadowed Alexander-Arnold since the restart, creating more chances (22 vs 20) and more big chances (six versus three), while he’s surely passed the eye test.

The Scot is pouring forward on the left flank, overlapping Mane time and time again. He already has a first goal to his name and there should be more to come.

Fabinho bolsters Liverpool defence as Werner shows promise ahead of West Brom

Liverpool will be backed to be second only to Manchester City for goals scored again this season and, collectively, their full-backs have provided 34% of the assists since the start of the 2018/19 season.

So while the chances of clean sheets in the short-term may be diminished by Adrian’s tenure, Klopp’s side will have to score more goals to win matches and that will surely benefit their primary source of creativity.

And I’m not giving up on defensive returns, either.

We have to expect Klopp to react to the Villa Park mauling. He will surely focus on shutting down the gaps that were exploited in that defeat. The return of Jordan Henderson (£5.4m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) – both vital to Liverpool’s pressing game that denies opponents the time to exploit a high line – must also be factored in.

That aforementioned record of four clean sheets from 13 outings includes eight matches when the title was almost in the bag. But Liverpool cannot show any complacency now. Pep Guardiola will demand that his City side match Liverpool’s own relentless consistency, so Klopp will know that he has to quickly find a solution to their defensive frailties.

The fixture list convinces me that I can give him time.

Liverpool face just a Gameweek 8 trip to the Etihad and a home clash with Spurs in Gameweek 13 as major tests before the deadline for the first Wildcard.

So for this FPL manager, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson remain at the status they held before the madness ensued: unique assets who can present outstanding value.

They are investments worthy of that extra five million, particularly when I can compensate for that spend by investigating mid-price assets in attacking areas. We’ve already seen that Grealish, James Rodriguez (£7.6m), Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) are options that offer the potential of returns that keep pace or even better the top tier players.

It’s going to take a Jose Mourinho team to go on scoring five and six goals a game to convince me otherwise. At that point, the madness shifts to a whole new level.


Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,031 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. RyanMK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    1. Watkins or Mitrovic
    2. Grealish or Zaha

    1. Balance
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Mitrovic (because prefer no AVL double up and Grealish > Watkins)
      Grealish

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Watkins>>>>Mitrovic

    2. pratul09
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      M & G

    3. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      1. Mitrovic
      2. Grealish

    4. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Probably Watkins and Grealish
      But double up on Villa is too much
      Mitrovic could be interesting if the likes of RLC make an impact

  2. Stupendous
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Likely chelsea 11?

    1. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Caballero
      Azpi, Zouma, Rudiger, Chilwell
      Kante, Jorginho
      Mount, Havertz, Pulisic
      Werner

    2. Balls of Steel
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Kepa
      James Zouma Rudiger Chilwell
      Mount Jorginho Kanté Kai Puli
      Werner

  3. Balance
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Keep Vardy ?

    Or replace him for a -4.

    First sub is Reece James...

    1. pratul09
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Keep

      1. Balance
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks!

    2. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Ye keep

      1. Balance
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks!

  4. Tempestic
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Alright thats it, Werner(c) over Salah and Son... yay red arrows

    1. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Might be the differential move of the season

      1. Balls of Steel
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        You've just stolen my balls 🙂

    2. Mile Plankton
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Good Luck Sir.

  5. Ibralicious
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    All comes down to this for my WC (for real this time):

    Martinez - Forster
    Robbo - Chilwell - _____
    Salah (VC) - Son - J. Rod - Grealish
    Kane (C) - DCL - Maupay

    (Forster) - (_____ - Mitchell - Bissouma)

    A) Castagne + Ayling
    B) Reguilón + Lamptey

    Cheers, and good luck this GW lads!

    1. pratul09
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I'd go with B

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        B for me too.

        1. Ibralicious
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Heard he's not nailed on over Davies, so I guess I'll pass

    2. Balance
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A for me. Not sure about regulion

      1. Ibralicious
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah that's what I heard, cheers

    3. Vlekz
      5 years, 10 months ago

      If you choose A I would go for Dallas. Ayling will play cb for a few games
      I prefer B though

      1. Ibralicious
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Oh, is he confirmed to play CB?

        1. Vlekz
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Till Cooper is injured

          1. Ibralicious
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 10 months ago

            Didn't Bielsa say Cooper is a 50/50 for the upcoming game, so misses 1 game at max?

            1. Vlekz
              5 years, 10 months ago

              Yes.

  6. baines is god
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Semedo Saiss Ward Lamptey Konsa

    I need to start 3 of those 5.

    Currently going for the first 3 but open to ideas?

    1. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I'd play Lamptey over Ward if I had him

      1. baines is god
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        already have Ryan in goal forgot to mention

  7. Threat Level Midnight
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Kun (C) LOCKED INNNNNN

    Ride the wavEeEeEeEeEeE

    1. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Just like old times huh

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Might as well crash and burn in style if I am going to do it

  8. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Play Mitchell or Lamptey?

    1. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      The one that's worth 0.6 more

  9. pratul09
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Since KDB is out for more than 1 week,
    1. Keep Him, hoping he will be fit for the next GW
    2. Get Rashford
    3. Get Sterling
    4. Get Bruno
    5. Get Grealish and save money for next GW

  10. zotter
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A. Bench kdb and play Romeu or Lascelles
    B. Transfer out kdb for a -4
    C. Wildcard

    Have 2m itb

    McCarthy.
    Bellerin. Trent. Ayling
    Kdb. Salah. Son. Soucek
    Ings. Dcl. Wilson

    Steer. Romeu. Lascelles. Ferguson.

  11. Stupendous
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Last try tonight for any replies regarding anything...

    Saiss Zaha Brewster in a 3 5 2
    Or
    Reguilon (Bissouma) Maupay?

    Thanks

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B because I wouldn’t go zaha

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I think he plays and I have a feeling I'll regret not picking him up and will want him next week.

        Can't have em all!

        Maupay is such a dull pick.
        Zaha is the fun pick.

        1. Boberella
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Maupay is a dull pick, yes. Zaha just seems so hot and cold.

  12. Boberella
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Play Lamptey or Podence?

    1. Balls of Steel
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Podence

  13. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    I brought Zaha on after Utd game when I saw all theese green nice fixtures in front of him. Those fixtures start this gameweek, but I am on wildcard now and I more and more think about Grealish. I was thinking of giving Zaha a chance vs Brighton and if he blanks I would go with Jack, but now Zaha has a minor groin injury but is expected to start.what would you do in my spot?

    1. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      It's a tough one. See above.
      Many in same spot!

  14. saurabh.06
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Is vardy to kane for free worth it or should I save ft here?

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Yes, for free as Vardy may be injured (although I’d go Kun over Kane this week)

      1. saurabh.06
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks. Kun might come in the 2nd half for 1 pointer. If I go kane, I might as well captain him.

        1. Boberella
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Kun might also come in 2nd half for a 10+ pointer. I always get scarred by Kane so will never own him again, but yeah, worth captaining if you do go there.

          1. saurabh.06
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 10 months ago

            Yes you are right about both kun and kane..

            1. Bushwhacker
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 10 months ago

              Kun seems a massive risk after 4 or 5 days training ..,

              1. D_R_S_PORT_S
                • 9 Years
                5 years, 10 months ago

                Kun next GW probably fit n fire but not this GW.. if jiminez blanks probably i have money itb for kun despite of their fixtures.

  15. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Repost.

    Hey guys, how’s PVA as a pick for WC? Attacking and potentially on pens? Is he nailed on?

    Cheers

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I think he’s a good pick on a WC.

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Who knows when he will start

  16. BenDavies
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Don't normally ask for FPL advice here, usually just contribute to discussions but I am panicking over KDB and have no idea who to transfer him to!

    Any suggestions?

    1. PocketZola
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      pulisic, arsenal will batter city

      1. PocketZola
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        but on a serious note, son, grealish, jrod seem popular

    2. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Depends on who you own already. Don't double up Villa or Wolves, maybe Everton. Salah, Son, J. Rod the obvious must-haves out there, but a lot of good differentials too!

      1. BenDavies
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Already own Salah, Son and Jrod. Thinking Bruno?

    3. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What’s rest of your mid?

      1. BenDavies
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        See above. Also I have Foden!

        1. Boberella
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Grealish then

    4. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Grealish

  17. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Ryan
    Chilwell, Semedo, Reguilon
    Salah, Pulisic, Son,James, Zaha
    DCL, Kane

    Button, Brewster, Justin, Mitchell

    What do you think? Grealish or Zaha? Who should I pick as captain, Son or Kane?

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Grealish
      Kane

      1. KanteTouchThis
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        G and kane

  18. davies
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Pick one:

    A) Mahrez > Pulisic for free + Sterling (c)
    B) Mahrez/Jimmy > Son/Watkins for a hit + Son (c)

    1. PocketZola
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Im hoping watkins is last years pukki

      1. davies
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Can’t see it really - Grealish will provide consistent chances and he’s a good finisher

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B

  19. OptimusBlack
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Martinez or Guaita For WC
    I want Guaita as low Ownership as Gamble and easy Fixtures

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      You answered your own question

  20. PocketZola
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Im panicking with my wc now. I wish i had never activated it 🙁

    I want to play 3-4-3 but somehow I ended up with 3-5-2

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Change it back to 343 then

  21. TheOneAndOnly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Who to start?

    Brewster (FUL)
    Digne (LIV)

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Digne

    2. KanteTouchThis
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Brew

  22. KanteTouchThis
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Sorry for the repost
    Kdb issues. Helppp

    Kdb to Pulisic? - 4
    KdB to someone punty like rash or Bruno? - 4
    Play podence and keep

    Current front 8

    Kdb* salah son jrod podence
    Werner dcl brewster

    Thoughts appreciated

  23. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    1) KDB > Sterling
    2) KDB, Davis > Trossard, Kane (-4)
    3) Save FT and bench KDB
    1FT, 1.5itb

    McCarthy, Nyland
    Trent, Saiss, Justin, KWP, Mitchell
    Salah, KDB, Son, Soucek, Podence
    Ings, Jim, Davis

    1. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Oh. Or could do Davis > Bamford for free.

  24. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    would you do KDB > ???

    a. Bruno
    b. Stirling
    c. bench and play Podence

    this move would be for a - 8 arghhhh 🙁

    1. KanteTouchThis
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      For - 8 def c

      Going through the same issues btw

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        thinking just bench him and sort out next game week for free too.

    2. tokara
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      C otherwise u buy Pod for what????

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        yep agree with you there Tokara lol

  25. juho
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Pick one, please

    A) Robbo + Hames (0.5 ITB)
    B) Saiss + Rashford (0.7 ITB)

    1. Sanchit
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A clearly

  26. Ojpsan1
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Best long term?

    A) Brewster
    B) Mitro

  27. Stupendous
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Semedo can't attack from what I heard, and most have Leeds beating Wolves. Wolves haven't kicked on from last year.

    Reguilon isn't nailed on over Davies, and do Spurs even so clean sheets?

    They seem to be very popular picks.

    I'd rather Robbo I think and Chilwell as my 2nd def

    1. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Do

    2. tokara
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I think Neto is denting jimenz

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I dont really care about that mate sorry. Post is essentially about picking defenders.

  28. Sanchit
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    McCarthy

    Robertson James Chilwell Digne
    KDB Son Hamez
    Kane Jimenez DCL

    Bench is fodder

    On a -4 and with KDB.

    Just move KDB for a hit? Or WC?

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Kdb out

    2. Vlekz
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What will you change on a wildcard? Most of it looks good. Salah for a -4 could be a break even trade or better so just go for it.

  29. Tsparkes10
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Anything worth a hit? 2.8itb

    McCarthy
    TAA, Doh, Egan
    Son, Barnes, Grealish, Jamez
    DCL, Ings, Werner
    (Nyland, Mitchell, Podence, KWP)

    1. Sanchit
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Doherty? I preferably wouldn't keep a 6m defender who's not nailed.

    2. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Do you have a WC???

      USE IT!

    3. Tsparkes10
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Think he plays this game tbf, no way am I gonna use a wc now lol

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Glorious opportunity wasted. Your team has many flaws sorry

    4. Vlekz
      5 years, 10 months ago

      If Egan Doherty and Mitchell don't play. You won't be able to field 11 players

  30. RyanMK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    McCarthy or Ryan?