Pro Pundits - Mark
16 October 2020 3031 comments
Mark Mark
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Mark Sutherns explains why he’s sticking to his guns amid the Liverpool defensive firesale.


I remain defiant when it comes to Liverpool’s full-backs. An avalanche of goals is flushing funds from Fantasy Premier League defences and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andy Robertson (£7.0m) are rapidly being classified as disposable. But I’m not having it.

I’m not denying the logic. Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches since the restart and the injury to Alisson (£6.0m), a crucial component in Jurgen Klopp’s defensive jigsaw, nudges a hapless Adrian (£4.5m) into the firing line.

That worrying scenario provides a sub-plot to a season that, so far, has seen 144 goals scored, a rate of 3.79 goals per game. That’s a ridiculous figure: the record for a Premier League season was set in 1992/93 when we witnessed a rate of 2.65 goals per game.

So FPL managers are reassessing their team structure and flooding to the major benefactors of the goal rush, notably Spurs’ Harry Kane (£10.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

Expensive defenders are being sacrificed and, should Alexander-Arnold and Robertson fail to return in Saturday’s Merseyside derby, the evacuation will only gather pace.

But the recent explosion from the Spurs pair isn’t enough to convince me to give up on my two defensive investments. I may well move funds from Lucas Digne (£6.1m) and Reece James (£5.1m) and replace them with £4.5m options, but I’m remaining steadfast on the Liverpool full-backs.

At this stage, FPL managers normally start to seek out trends and patterns vital to drive our decisions – our transfers, our early-season Wildcards.

But we’ve never experienced a start to the season like this. We’re in the midst of something extreme that, to my mind, makes it impossible to find the comforting foothold of reliable data and form.

So with just this small and extraordinary sample of matches as my reference, I’m refusing to write off a player who, prior to Gameweek 1, was the first name on almost every FPL teamsheet.

At the time of writing, over almost 240,000 managers have sold Alexander-Arnold heading into Saturday’s deadline.

Admittedly, his performances have contributed to that trend. He has been short of his best by some margin and has been strangely peripheral to Liverpool’s play. However, Alexander-Arnold’s numbers remain impressive: only West Ham’s Ryan Fredericks (£4.4m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) have created more chances among players in his Fantasy position, and with seven efforts on goal, no defender has bettered his direct threat. If you are brave enough to use data given the bizarre four Gameweeks we’ve had, there’s little in the numbers to drive you to sell.

Alexander-Arnold is a player that has provided 28 assists and five goals in his previous two campaigns, with his points tally improving from 185 points to 210. Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) and Jack Grealish (£7.1m) have created more chances and on Boxing Day last year, the right-back coupled that creativity with an eye for goal to haul of 24-points, a record for a defender in the history of FPL.

Is this really an asset we can reject on the basis of four bizarre Gameweeks?

On Liverpool’s opposite flank, Robertson appears to be reaching new levels as an attacking outlet. He’s overshadowed Alexander-Arnold since the restart, creating more chances (22 vs 20) and more big chances (six versus three), while he’s surely passed the eye test.

The Scot is pouring forward on the left flank, overlapping Mane time and time again. He already has a first goal to his name and there should be more to come.

Fabinho bolsters Liverpool defence as Werner shows promise ahead of West Brom

Liverpool will be backed to be second only to Manchester City for goals scored again this season and, collectively, their full-backs have provided 34% of the assists since the start of the 2018/19 season.

So while the chances of clean sheets in the short-term may be diminished by Adrian’s tenure, Klopp’s side will have to score more goals to win matches and that will surely benefit their primary source of creativity.

And I’m not giving up on defensive returns, either.

We have to expect Klopp to react to the Villa Park mauling. He will surely focus on shutting down the gaps that were exploited in that defeat. The return of Jordan Henderson (£5.4m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) – both vital to Liverpool’s pressing game that denies opponents the time to exploit a high line – must also be factored in.

That aforementioned record of four clean sheets from 13 outings includes eight matches when the title was almost in the bag. But Liverpool cannot show any complacency now. Pep Guardiola will demand that his City side match Liverpool’s own relentless consistency, so Klopp will know that he has to quickly find a solution to their defensive frailties.

The fixture list convinces me that I can give him time.

Liverpool face just a Gameweek 8 trip to the Etihad and a home clash with Spurs in Gameweek 13 as major tests before the deadline for the first Wildcard.

So for this FPL manager, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson remain at the status they held before the madness ensued: unique assets who can present outstanding value.

They are investments worthy of that extra five million, particularly when I can compensate for that spend by investigating mid-price assets in attacking areas. We’ve already seen that Grealish, James Rodriguez (£7.6m), Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) are options that offer the potential of returns that keep pace or even better the top tier players.

It’s going to take a Jose Mourinho team to go on scoring five and six goals a game to convince me otherwise. At that point, the madness shifts to a whole new level.


Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,031 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. dshv
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Starting WC or keep kdb ???

  2. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Which combo is best?

    a) Robbo, KWP, Martinez

    b) Trent, Jamal Lewis, Ryan

    1. AF90
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A

    2. The Mandalorian
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A

  3. carlosice
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    A) Mahrez and KDB to Salah and Son (-4)

    B) Or just one of those moves?

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Maybe just KDB to Salah and other move next week.

      1. carlosice
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Thanks. Think Salah outscores Son this week?

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I think Mahrez is a better option than Son this week, I'd keep.

    3. batman_sux
      6 years, 1 day ago

      KDB to Salah
      I don't think son will get more than a goal or assist at best, so not worth the hit.
      If anyone will do well in the absence of strikers and KDB, Mahrez could b a nice differential.

  4. Niho992
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Which move is best lads. Help me here please ?

    A : KdB to Son for free
    B : KdB and Adams to Son and Watkins/Maupay/DCL for -4
    C : KdB and Adams to Hamez/Grealish and KAne for -4

    Dont fancy hits, but feel i must ditch Adams.

    Opinion ?

    1. Davido989
      6 years, 1 day ago

      B with Grealish.

      1. Niho992
        6 years, 1 day ago

        you mean C ?

        1. Davido989
          6 years, 1 day ago

          Ah, yes C with Grealish.

    2. MIGHTY JOE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A. Dont shut down kdb

      1. Niho992
        6 years, 1 day ago

        dont get it

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son DCL long term

      1. Niho992
        6 years, 1 day ago

        that's what i think but dont like DCL as player tbf

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          6 years, 1 day ago

          I like his points so far 😉

  5. Royal5
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Who would you rather have this week?

    A. Grealish
    B. James

    Decided I can't ignore their form any longer even though I've had a good start. KDB is going.

    1. Davido989
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Grealish.

  6. baines is god
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Start 3

    Taylor, Saiss, Rodriguez, Brewster, Antonio?

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Saiss,Rodriguez,Antonio

  7. Fuddled FC
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Would you do

    A) KDB & Werner > Son & Kane (÷4)
    b) KDB & Dier > Son & 6m defender (-4)
    c) KDB > Son

    1. Aubamewho
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A

  8. MIGHTY JOE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Mahrez cap madness surely????

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Like it a lot - go for it

    2. Autopick XI
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I've got Mahrez in my XI I think he's a solid option

    3. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Not madness no, there isn't a clear cut captaincy option this week IMO and I can see Mahrez doing well against Arsenal. If I owned I'd be tempted for sure, explosive differential.

  9. Isco Disco
    6 years, 1 day ago

    What are the chances of Brewster and Pulisic starting this weekend?

    1. Davido989
      6 years, 1 day ago

      High x2.

    2. The Overthinker
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Expect both to start

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      6 years, 1 day ago

      both start

    4. Clintymints
      6 years, 1 day ago

      99%

  10. AF90
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Boring question but on a WC...any preference for Dallas or Ayling or flip a coin?

    Or ignore & go for a different 4.5 def?

    1. Davido989
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Ayling likely to play CB given injuries, so Dallas.

      1. AF90
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Cheers

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Dallas

  11. Oggle22
    6 years, 1 day ago

    2.7m in the bank: KDB to Son done ewt worth a -4?

    Mccarthy
    TAA Taylor Mitchell
    Salah SonBruno Rodriguez Neto
    Mitrovic Jiminez

    Nyland KWP Saliba Davis

    Cheers

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Yeah it worth i would say.

      1. Oggle22
        6 years, 1 day ago

        I did KDB to Son with my free transfer already anything else I should do for a -4?

  12. andrinho
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Free Transfer:
    Auba to Salah??

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I don't think the two compare at the moment, Mo a superior option currently.

    2. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Absolutely

  13. DMP
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Is it worth an hit to move Ben Davies out to Semedo/Chilwel/Reguilon? Any chance he starts deu to Dier injury?

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Who will play for you if Davies doesn’t play? I have him but don’t think it’s worth a -4 to get him out

      1. DMP
        6 years, 1 day ago

        KWP.

  14. Bobby_Baggio
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Evening all - some help on which to go with please? Davies does worry me as subs are not amazing.

    McCarthy
    Davies - TAA - Justin
    KDB - Hamez - Salah - Podence
    Ings - Mitro - Jimenez

    (Martin) - Lewis - Johnson - Stephens

    A) KDB > Son
    B) KDB > Sterling
    C) KDB + Mitro > Sterling + DCL (-4)
    D) Davies + KDB > Saiss + Sterling (-4)
    D) Davies + KDB > Saiss + Son (-4)

  15. Boss Hogg
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Anything I need to change on this WC?

    Ryan, McCarthy
    TAA, PVA, Dallas, Lamptey, Mitchell
    Salah, Son, Pulisic, Grealish, Bissouma
    Kane, DCL, Wilson

    1. Gomolon
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Not sure about double Brighton defence and 2 playing keepers

  16. Feed tha Sheep
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Son, Grealish or JRod in?

    1. Autopick XI
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son but all 3 solid options

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      6 years, 1 day ago

      depends who you got but Son

    3. Shineonme
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Jrod

  17. Autopick XI
    6 years, 1 day ago

    PVA, Chilwell or Reulion?

    already have Robbo and Semedo

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Chilwell

  18. Tsparkes10
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Gtg? 2.8itb

    McCarthy
    TAA, Doh, Egan
    Son, Barnes, Grealish, Jamez
    DCL, Ings, Werner
    (Nyland, Mitchell, Podence, KWP)

  19. Niho992
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Adams to DCL for -4 ?

  20. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    McCarthy
    TAA Robbo Taylor
    Salah KDB Rodriguez Podence
    Mitrovic Maupay Jimenez

    Steer Burke Lewis Ferguson

    1.9 ITV

    What to do with KDB?

    A KDB > Son -4
    B Hold and hope Burke plays against Fulham
    C Any other suggestions?

  21. doppelganger
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Guaita Steer
    Trent Saiss Justing Mitchell Dunne
    Salah Kdb* Barnes Zaha Reed
    Ings Jimenez Dcl

    a. kdb - son
    b. kdb+ings - kane+grealish -4
    c. kdb+ings - kane+pulisic -4

    Help me here,please

  22. Will J 256
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Currently have R James and Lamptey. Considering starting R James but there is a chance he misses out. Shall I put Lamptey or Brewster first sub? Playing 3-5-2 by the way! Hope this makes sense.

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I own them both too, currently starting Lamptey, with Chilwell declared fit im struggling to see how James gets a start and would rather a full match of Lamptey than 5 min cameo from James.

      1. Will J 256
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Cool thank you!

  23. Boss Hogg
    6 years, 1 day ago

    As part of a wc...

    a. Robbo and Brewster
    b. PVA and Wilson

    ???

  24. Obamawang
    6 years, 1 day ago

    (a) Soucek & Ings;
    or
    (b) Grealish and Wilson/Maupay? If (b), which?

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Grealish/Maupay

  25. Jolly Good
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Ok I know neither are popular but
    Werner or Bruno for captain

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      werner

    2. Ady87
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Bruno pens

  26. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    KDB to Mane (have Salah and Son), Grealish or J.Rodriguez

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Mane

    2. Aubamewho
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Grealish. For this week

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      6 years, 1 day ago

      grealish

  27. Autopick XI
    6 years, 1 day ago

    On a WC:

    Martinez
    Robbo Chilwell Semedo
    Grealish Pulisic Salah Son(c) Mahrez
    DCL Maupay

    Subs: Lamptey Dallas Brewster

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Almost similar only i have kane and zaha and you have mahrez and pulisic. gl

  28. The Orienteer - find me in …
    6 years, 1 day ago

    What should I do? Please help.

    1. Jolly Good
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Weed

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      What's up ?

      1. The Orienteer - find me in …
        6 years, 1 day ago

        I need help with my team.

  29. Niho992
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Thinking to C Jimenez ahead of Salah or Son. Madness ?

    1. Autopick XI
      6 years, 1 day ago

      He's due but could get max 6-9 points.
      Son or Salah could brace.

    2. Jolly Good
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I think he will score ... counterattack suits wolves

    3. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Madness indeed.

  30. Atimis
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Keep Mitchell on WC ?

    1. Zrinkec
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Worth trying no much better option on that money.