Studying Tactical Trends of the Top Teams

After a successful first iteration of this edition, onwards to another edition of tactics affecting FPL. This week, I will mostly look ahead on Chelsea and Liverpool in depth, followed by brief notes on some other teams. As always, it might be worth skipping over the teams which you are not at all interested in.

Liverpool

Since my last piece, Liverpool have lost Joe Gomez (£5.4m) to a long-term injury, while Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) will potentially miss two Gameweeks. As such, it is a week too early to predict Liverpool as Jürgen Klopp may change everything.

Diogo Jota (£6.5m) excelled as part of the front three in the Champions League, played as a RCM/RW against Sheffield United (similar role to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (£6.3m) vs Atletico Madrid last season, where the Ox lined up as RCM but often played as a right-winger), and was used as a right winger in a 4-2-4 against Manchester City. His best numbers have come when he was in the front three, displacing Roberto Firmino (£9.2m).

Defensively, since Virgil van Dijk’s (£6.3m) injury, Liverpool have conceded one goal in each league game, and kept three consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League.

During my last piece, I talked about how attacking Andy Robertson (£7.1m) was against Ajax. It was a false dawn and his average position has been a lot more defensive in every game since (Atalanta shown since it was the closest formation to the Ajax one). Perhaps what is noticeable is the absence of James Milner (£5.3m) as a LCM, he covered Robertson’s runs during Ajax.

Liverpool defensively are a wait and see, with three tough fixtures in the next five. Some questions I am looking at:

• Will they keep a high line without both Van Dijk and Joe Gomez, given the relative slower speed of their replacements?
• Their main source of chance creation is often using Trent Alexander-Arnold, how will they compensate (Thiago (£5.9m) could solve this problem if he can stay fit)?
• Will they persist with a Southampton-like 4-2-4 as they did against Man City, or is Jota seen as competition for the front three?
• Will Robertson become far more attacking again since Trent Alexander-Arnold is out (more set pieces as well)?

Despite the questions in defence – Liverpool have the most shots, and the highest xG in the league. Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) and Sadio Mané (£12.0m) remain top-tier options. Jota might prove the best mid-price-value player for those willing to risk the games he may be benched (or in a deeper right-sided role).

Additionally, if Klopp can sort out his defence, they may have really cheap defensive options as well depending on who nails down a centre-back spot (David Ornstein from The Athletic says that Liverpool do not plan to buy a defender in January). 

Chelsea Defence

Chelsea have made massive strides recently. While I predicted their defence would improve after Gameweek 4, few predicted that so many new signings would fit in so quickly. There were times where Chelsea made Burnley and Sheffield United, two sides who have not been blown away in any other game, look like Sunday league opposition. Obviously, consistency over several months will determine if this side can genuinely challenge for the title.

Much of the credit falls to Frank Lampard and his staff for moving to a 4-3-3 formation, which was successful last season but shelved this season due to wanting Kai Havertz (£8.3m) as the No 10.

The main difference from the 4-2-3-1 is the midfield solidity. Mason Mount (£6.8m) and N’Golo Kanté (£4.9m) have formed a really good midfield screen, with Mount’s energy and pressing suiting Kanté a lot, who can focus on covering the width of the pitch (rather than the length e.g. pressing centre-backs).

These two have been good in ball progression from defence to attack as well, which was a potential weakness. Alongside them, Havertz has adapted well to the defensive roles in a midfield three, while Jorginho (£5.2m), Mateo Kovacic (£5.3m) and Billy Gilmour (£4.4m) provide good backups. With Thiago Silva (£5.5m) proving to be a Terry-like presence at the back, and Edouard Mendy (£5.1m) and Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) exceeding all expectations, Chelsea have only conceded two goals in the eight games when Mendy has been in goal.

The only worry is they do not have a good backup to any of the latter three, or even Kanté. The first test is against Newcastle. Silva is likely to miss the game since he started against Uruguay on Wednesday ahead of an early kick-off on Saturday (he missed Gameweek 5 in similar circumstances), while Chilwell is also a doubt. If Chelsea can pass this test, and then cope against Tottenham, they will cement their status as a top FPL defence.

Chelsea offence

Chelsea played a 4-3-3 for 20 minutes against West Brom and scored two goals in that time. Since then, they have scored three or more goals in every game it has been deployed. They are now the top scorers in the Premier League after eight games.

What has also been encouraging is how Chelsea have not missed Christian Pulisic (£8.2m), or Havertz, in recent games. Against the Blades, they were also able to impose their main style of play on a weaker opponent (rather than match their back three). Too often last season, Chelsea ran out of ideas and failed to score against defensive, bottom-half teams.

One pattern worth analysing is Timo Werner (£9.4m), who is played “out of position” on the left.

Werner has been incredible in the box (scoring goals, assisting, winning penalties, and now scoring penalties), but poor outside of it. Despite lining up as a left-winger, his goal against Sheffield United saw him positioned towards the right of Tammy Abraham (£7.2m) in a front two. He was in the same position on the right flank when he got a pre-assist for Hakim Ziyech‘s (£8.2m) goal against Burnley.

Since Werner and Ziyech often occupy central positions, Chelsea have occasionally looked like a 4-1-2-1-2 with both full-backs providing the width, which is not how you envision a 4-3-3 in attack.

In other moments, they look like a Liverpool-style front five; both full-backs pushing up with the front three. There was serious criticism of Lampard early on for playing Havertz on the right, or Werner on the left, but this seems to be a squad blessed with a plethora of versatile attackers, without many rigid positions in attack.

The other trends which feel relevant from an FPL standpoint: elite two-way threat on the right with Reece James (£5.0m) and Ziyech providing different crossing angles; Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) providing a regular threat on the far post; Ziyech rotating with the RCM e.g. Kovacic and Mount ran into the box against Sheffield United for the first goal as Ziyech gave a David Silva-like pre-assist from the RCM position.

This mainly leads to three overarching changes: Chelsea have a lot more avenues to break down a defence now; and they are using them through trying a lot more risky, line-breaking passes (more risk takers in possession, and more confidence in the defence to stop counter attacks); and they have at least one elite finisher to score those chances on the pitch.

While Chilwell, Ziyech and Werner are the best attacking options for now, Tammy Abraham is a good differential for those looking for budget routes into the attack. He had 0.67 goals-per-90 last season, which was the third best in the league behind the two Man City strikers.

This season, Abraham has had a goal contribution in every game he has started (seven games in a row in all competitions). He provides a significantly better focal point than Werner, and is ahead of Olivier Giroud (£6.7m) given the latter’s age (if Abraham can further improve his hold-up ability to near-Giroud levels, he will serve Chelsea for five+ years).

The only thing is the rotation threat due to Christian Pulisic, who may push Werner into a central position. For now, though, Pulisic will be eased in very carefully given his recurring muscle injuries.

Man Utd

Man Utd surprisingly did not play a back three against Chelsea, keeping a consistent 4-2-3-1.

They have not improved their poor form from the end of last season (then attributed to the first XI being overplayed), with no good options on the right flank and Bruno Fernandes (£10.6m) not firing every game. New signing Donny van de Beek (£6.7m) has only played 75 minutes of league football.

They have very few reliable ways to score goals from open play. The only two times they have racked up the score came via a flurry of counter-attacking goals after the 80th minute against Newcastle and Leipzig.

In some good news, however, the United defence has improved a lot. After conceding 11 goals in the first three games, they only conceded three in the next four.

Man Utd now face West Brom and West Ham (two deep defences) as well as Southampton (high press) in their next three. Fernandes and Marcus Rashford (£9.6m) are the best options. Both have assisted each other multiple times, and Fernandes justifies his premium due to penalties and set-pieces. Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) has also looked promising if he can become a starter.

Their attackers remain high-ceiling differentials for now.

Everton

Mostly including Everton for accountability since I had a prediction on them last time.

Everton’s goals, and xG, have dried up. Rather than potentially attacking the box a lot more as I thought, James Rodriguez (£7.9m) is now posing questions for his own defence. Multiple opposition left-backs have had key roles in plenty of recent goals that Everton have conceded, with James’s defensive ability called into question.

Given their favourable fixtures, Everton seem to be in the “don’t buy, don’t sell” category, unless you are favouring a punt on the returning Richarlison (£7.8m). Something worth monitoring is if Rodriguez stays at right wing.

Leicester and Arsenal

Leicester and Arsenal still struggle with chance creation, the former relying massively on penalties whereas the latter has not scored an open play goal since Gameweek 4.

Much of this is by design; both have a defensive back three.

With Arteta, this is because of a broader recognition of defensive stability given how often Arsenal got outshot under Emery and late Wenger, even if the side effect is chief goalscorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.7m) having historically low attacking stats in every department.

The question is, given how the goals have fully dried up, whether he sticks to the current system or compromises some areas for short-term gains.

With Rodgers, he is compensating for the absence of Wilfred Ndidi (£4.8m). Leicester have had one exceptional result, a 1-4 win against Leeds (a fairly unique team), with low shots and NPxG (non-penalty xG) in every other game.

You never know though, Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) still has scored 3 non-penalty goals this season at a NPxG of 2.8, nothing remarkable but something he can definitely build on with easier fixtures upcoming. Or he might keep scoring penalties.

Tottenham

The addition of Gareth Bale (£9.5m) did not seem to massively change the prospects of their other attackers against West Brom. Son Heung-min (£9.6m) still had very few shots, but he missed his big chance against West Brom, which he had converted in every prior game.

And despite his occasional Pirlo-like positioning, Harry Kane (£11.0m) still had seven shots, created four chances, and got his goal at the end. The next two fixtures get really tough, but both players are fairly fixture-proof with great big-game records. It would take a brave move to sell given there have been no equals to Kane or Son’s 10.0+ ppg (over the last eight games) yet.

West Ham

West Ham have form and fixtures. Through a bad fixture run, they showed impressive defensive resolve in a new 5-4-1 formation even without their main attacking outlet, Michail Antonio (£6.2m). The only issue is consistency.

West Ham are a notoriously inconsistent side post-Dimitri Payet, never stringing more than four good results together before going into a run of poor results. Even when they picked up their two recent clean sheets, they conceded a last-minute penalty to Fulham, and were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Leicester (poor 1v1 miss by Vardy, then Harvey Barnes (£6.9m) goal disallowed, both after the 88th minute). This switching off late in games is a scary sight for FPL managers. 

Last season, they kept three clean sheets in a row from Gameweeks 4-6, with Aaron Cresswell (£5.1m) impressing. They then only kept four clean sheets in the next 32 games, each very isolated from another.

Cresswell could be a great pick if he maintains consistency with a run of easier fixtures incoming, but the consistency relies on West Ham finally having turned a corner. Else a run of poor results, calls to ditch the back five, renewed fan hostility with the board, and player-manager tensions, may all erupt again.

Final thoughts

Last time I predicted a significant regression in goals and hauls to normal values, which has come true. The next thing is probably rotation, and potentially going back to five substitutions. Gameweeks 12 to 17 happen over 18 days (three days between deadlines on average). Players who till now are rotated over Champions League/Europa League fixtures, will be rotated in Premier League games. This will affect each team differently, so it might be worth starting to think about that.

Also I did not include Manchester City, because it is hard to predict them right now. While their defence has been impressive, their attack has remained in flux without a centre-forward.

For now, I am just going to play the fixtures and pick one of Kevin De Bruyne (£11.5m) or Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) by Gameweek 10 given both have had decent, if not consistent, performances and look for more data before committing to a double up.

I also did not include Aston Villa or Southampton, really good attacks who have fairly set tactics which do not change regardless of opposition. Or the other teams, because of space. Let me know in the comments if you’d like a certain side covered in the next edition!