As teams begin to settle into the league, it is perhaps interesting to note the next few weeks pose some interesting tactical changes which may redistribute the goals/assists in the top teams.
The focus is mostly on the ‘Big Six’ and Everton, because they generally kept up a high level of goalscoring into Gameweek 5 (this is explained in the conclusion section).
Admittedly, tactical trends can be fairly irrelevant to Fantasy football. We do not need to know why Andrew Robertson (£7.1m) is getting forward more than Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), or why he is getting more shots in the box and a higher xG, we just need to know it is happening. Generally, though not exclusively, there is a positive correlation with xG, or shots in the box, and goals.
Whether Liverpool play better or worse, is not entirely something useful for Fantasy managers, unless it is reflected in the numbers.
As such, this piece approaches tactics from the angle of “Kane scores more when Eriksen plays, and this is why Eriksen might play in the next few weeks” (the writer never looked into this so cannot say if it was a myth or a fact).
(Note: Given the length of this piece, I would personally only read the teams you happen to be interested in!)
Everton
The most interesting event is the suspension of Richarlison (£7.9m) for the next three games. We have had one sample already in the Brighton game, where Richarlison left the pitch inside the first 30 minutes and Alex Iwobi (£5.9m) came on. Iwobi noticeably attacked the box a lot less. In the Brighton game, he had no shots, and only three touches in the box.
Meanwhile, Richarlison averages seven touches in the box, and four shots (three in the box) per game.
The boost seems to be with James Rodriguez (£8.0m), since Brighton was the only time he had high xG shots.
James has only had six shots in the box all season (seven touches in the box). It is why he is a quirky option. His assists have come from set pieces, and all his best passes are for runners from deep (rather than vertical passes for Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m)), with his owners hoping that Richarlison takes some of his passes and takes a shot on himself. He also rarely attacks the box, reducing his goal threat to free-kicks and long shots.
Crucially, however, three of James’s shots in the box (and two goals) came in the Brighton game. Some of this may be situational, since Brighton had a gaping hole with their back three dragged towards Iwobi or Digne, which teams who play a left-back will not allow.
But the suspension of Richarlison is worth taking note. James’s best route to open-play assists is gone with others looking to set up Calvert-Lewin. However, Everton are dominant enough in the air for his set-piece assists to tick over. And given how rarely Iwobi attacks the box, it is possible James now starts attacking the box more.
Tottenham
The big part about Tottenham is the duo of Harry Kane (£10.8m) and Son Heung-Min (£9.4m). They have been involved in 13 goals already, nine of which they assisted each other for. With the introduction of Gareth Bale (£9.5m) however, who does not possess the defensive ability (or willingness to stretch the play) like Lucas Moura (£6.9m), tactics may change.
For FPL managers who own both Son and Kane, what you want is Bale increasing Tottenham’s goals (like Salah did for Liverpool), rather than taking goals away from them. It seems certain that there will be some change to Spurs’ attacking patterns given three narrow attackers in the central area, and also off the ball to compensate for Bale’s lack of defensive ability. It just remains to be seen who will benefit from it the most.
An example is Son staying wide more often, while Bale effectively becomes the most advanced attacker, which benefits Bale and hinders Son.
Liverpool
Liverpool are heading into uncharted territory but the early signs are positive after a good 0-1 win away to Ajax, despite a backup goalkeeper, a new CB partnership, a new DM and RCM.
Robertson was very attacking in the Ajax game, with four touches in the box (around his average). James Milner (£5.3m) covered whenever Robertson went forward, with Robertson often forming a front four. The full-backs are still absolutely key to Liverpool’s system, two-way attacking threat without sacrificing defensive security (their midfield three press well, rarely give the ball away and cover the flanks). It helps routinely overpower deep defences, so they are unlikely to shift away unless it stops working. For those wondering, there was not any change in Alexander-Arnold’s role in the Ajax game as well.
If Liverpool keep clean sheets (only one, where Chelsea missed a penalty), Robertson could become the best defender in the game. If they do not however, the right £7.0m midfielder (e.g. Jack Grealish (£7.2m)) could outperform Robertson’s attacking returns and occasional clean sheet.
The only system used apart from the standard 4-3-3, was the 4-2-3-1 during 2018-19 when Xherdan Shaqiri (£6.4m) was too good to be dropped. He would play on the right, Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) dropped as the CAM and Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) became the striker. Diogo Jota (£6.3m) might slot in if that’s the case, but this seems unlikely for the next few games.
Chelsea and Man Utd
Both sides emerged with creditable results based on good defensive performances in Europe. Man Utd returned to a 3-4-2-1 formation against a good PSG side, the same formation which they played in their last three games against Chelsea.
On the other side, Chelsea seemed very relieved with a clean sheet against Sevilla (who beat Inter Milan and Man Utd last season, and since both Bayern Munich and Barcelona have failed to beat them over 90 minutes). The returns of Edouard Mendy (£5.0m) and Thiago Silva (£5.5m), coupled with solid performances from the full-backs bodes well, with Chelsea’s defence depending on if they remain fit.
This seems a game where both teams cannot afford to lose, rather than needing a win. Solskjaer may stick to the 3-4-2-1, where successfully defending against Kylian Mbappe was a good way to prepare for Timo Werner (£9.3m). Lampard seems wedded to the 4-2-3-1 right now, but he successfully used the 3-4-3 last season against Man Utd for the FA Cup semi final. As such, we might see both teams roll out a back three.
Man Utd could be unchanged apart from replacing the suspended Anthony Martial (£8.8m). If Chelsea roll out the back three, expect Reece James (£5.0m) to start, and perhaps a surprise in Chelsea’s front three. Chelsea’s version of 3-4-3 requires pace up top, and the striker is normally expected to be a focal point. We may see Werner as a wide forward, perhaps Christian Pulisic (£8.3m) benched for Mason Mount (£6.9m), or even an unlikely benching for Kai Havertz (£8.4m) if Lampard wants to go for all-pace.
More on Chelsea
There is a perception that Chelsea assets will fire with Hakim Ziyech (£7.9m) back. If you are investing in Chelsea’s attack, it might be worth treating each attacker like a new signing of sorts. You are banking on unseen returns emerging early. It might happen, and it might not.
If Chelsea keep a 4-2-3-1, it is unlikely they will immediately start dominating games. As we have seen till now, that does not mean they won’t score goals. Chelsea have no continuity from previous seasons (few on-pitch player relationships), and only one week of pre-season. With no training time due to three games every week, the only time to gain match fitness and develop an understanding is during games. This is not like Everton, who brought three experienced players to play in already familiar roles.
The attackers will eventually understand each other and overwhelm many opponents given their immense talent. But with young age, a new league, six new starters, it most likely will not happen on their first starts; especially factoring in squad imbalances.
Most of them attack from similar spaces (Werner/Pulisic center-left, Havertz/Ziyech center-right), without a lot of width to stretch play. It will take time to work out rotations, like how Sheffield United use them to ensure players do not get in each other’s way on the flanks.
Generally, the players in attack to target would be Werner, Pulisic or Havertz, depending on the budget and the numbers; but it is too early to tell who will emerge the best option once they sort it out.
Arsenal and Leicester
Mikel Arteta’s team are more pragmatic than former Arsenal sides, but they struggle massively with chance creation. They average 8.0 shots per game (only Crystal Palace have taken fewer). By contrast, Liverpool and Man City average over 15.0 shots per game. In good news though, their non-penalty xG per shot is 0.15 (highest in the league), indicating they create high-quality chances. They have also been good defensively, only conceding six goals in five games (second best in the league).
Leicester City, meanwhile, have been poor offensively (8.40 shots per game, 0.09 NPxG/shot), mostly relying on penalties. They nullified Man City with a 5-4-1, but were completely undone playing the same formation against West Ham (no chance creation, could not control their counter-attacking threat). While they were defensively solid against Aston Villa with a 4-5-1, they went for a win with attacking substitutions, and conceded a late goal after Ross Barkley (£5.9m) had a lot of room in midfield.
This game has the potential to be very cagey, given how little both teams create and their defensive organisation. Both teams seem to be building a strong defensive structure for now, relying on scoring from a few chances and remaining solid. As such, defensive assets, or the goalscorers with high conversion rates, might be the best route for these teams.
Manchester City
The only side left out here is Manchester City, where this writer has no clue what to think about them. They seem to like cutting inside and shooting a lot more, rather than creating a bunch of open goals through crosses. Despite their ever-changing tactics, whichever attacker you take from Man City, provided they start, should do well. They keep changing their tactics to remain unpredictable, but still end up top scorers each season.
Conclusions
Gameweek 5 actually saw a real regression in goals scored, which was slightly overlooked. We saw 40+ goals in Gameweek 2 and Gameweek 4, but only 28 goals in Gameweek 5. The xG remained similar for each week, between 25 to 30 goals, indicating teams began to stop comprehensively outperforming their xG.
The number of players who got one attacking return remained similar, but the players who hauled (hauls = getting two, or more, attacking returns) dipped significantly. There were only six players who returned hauls in Gameweek 5, whereas Gameweek 2 and Gameweek 4 have 14 or more such players.
Why this massive drop in goals seems overlooked (it seems just bonkers right now) is the profile of players who hauled in Gameweek 5. Only one player (Che Adams (£5.8m) hauled from a non-Big Six side, but five players hauled from Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham. This is a massive change to previous weeks, where non-Big Six teams had around 10 players with hauls. The Big Six sides remained around 5-6 players with hauls every week.
It is too early to draw correlations, but we have now seen a Gameweek where many teams dipped from their previous unsustainable levels, but the Big Six teams as whole (and Everton for now) did not. Given many of these teams are embarking on tactical changes, they may keep up their level of goalscoring but see a redistribution of goals/assists across the team.
3 years, 6 months agoGreat article, very informative.