Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. Is the Joe Lepper's Goal Imminent Table the Best Way to Forecast FPL Points 15 days, 12 hours ago

    I actually looked at this statistically. How can a "notoriously bad finisher" play for a side which has been a disaster for 2 seasons, not even be on pens consistently, play out-wide most of the time, and yet get 13 goals! Richarlison has had a conversion rate of 15% in each of the last 2 seasons. It is only slightly below overage when you look at all the players with 10+ goals over the last 3 seasons (19%). He gets away around 90 attempts a season, which is above average average (80 attempts. again, for players who get 10+ goals in a season). To complicate this further, Richarlison had 90 attempts, but only 13 big chances. The average ratio is that for most players (again, for all players with 10 or more goals in the last 4 seasons), for every 4.5 shots, you get 1 big chance. Richarlison averages around 6.50 shots per big chance, which might perhaps explain why he has a low conversion rate. But here's the kicker to your "he couldn't hit a barn door", according to the xG model us… » Read

  2. The Emerging Case for Zouma and Chelsea's Defence 16 days, 17 hours ago

    Oh, on Kante, again I am not sure how underlying numbers change with/without him. The overall picture did not change significantly. His main run of starts came mid-season where Chelsea's defence got a bit better (partially due to fixtures) but their goalscoring went off a cliff, despite chance creation remaining relatively alright. Out went the days of beating Burnley 4-2, Southampton 4-1, Wolves 5-2. And in came the days of losing 1-0 to Bournemouth, Newcastle and West Ham. In GW1-12, our top scorer was Abraham with 10. From GW27-38, it was Giroud with 8. From GW13-27, it was Jorginho with 3. Hard to make too many conclusions based on that however. He looked really good in the first 3 games of restart as a lone DM in a 4-3-3, but according to journalists in The Athletic, Lampard does not see him in that role anymore (he feels Jorginho/Kante leave the DM spot too much while pressing). The one thing I was cautiously optimistic of (when I sent this article) was the signing of Declan… » Read

  3. The Emerging Case for Zouma and Chelsea's Defence 16 days, 17 hours ago

    Thanks! Here's what I'd think on it. - I never understood the West Brom benching. Zouma did very well in the first 2 games (easy to forget that Brighton dominated the ball, had Lamptey doing well, but never really got good chances due to CBs). I can't seem to find any journalist following up with Lampard on it. While Lampard does some stuff that makes little sense (to the outside) - one thing he does seem to do is reward good performances with further stats. - I am not sure about Arsenal, my personal opinion with shots/xG (used alone) is that it is very good at what's going on (predicting), but not necessarily at telling you why it is going on (coaching). There could perhaps be more information from match-by-match data. I'll re-explain what I saw with Arsenal just incase it confused people--- Basically, both Liverpool 17-18 and Arsenal 18-19 conceded an abnormally high number of goals away, while being good at home. However, Liverpool's total goals conceded went from 38 to 22 (so… » Read

  4. The best strikers to buy, sell and hold based on FPL goal threat from open play 23 days, 13 hours ago

    Small twitter thread, but basically a slight rebuttal to the idea that Salah's assist potential seems to have increased (it's possible, but there's not a lot of data to suggest he'll do any more than last season yet). If you like it, please share it: https://twitter.com/melonlord22/status/1311961897437192194 » Read

  5. Southampton make one change for trip to injury-stricken Burnley 28 days, 17 hours ago

    I agree with the positional analysis but this seems to not give Lampard credit. This is a manager who took 4-5 Championship youngsters and got his team to the top 4. Loads of players look a lot better under than him than they did previously, just look at Pulisic. 4 goals max in 30+ Bundesliga games per season for Dortmund, yet he made him look like a 20-goal-season winger after just 7-8 months in a new league. Havertz looked incredibly good in a 4-3-3 at the start of second half (Kante lone DM), something Lampard used to great success in the restart until Kante got injured. I feel we move to that eventually. You can easily see Havertz as an #8, and Werner LW (or an ST for the high-line games where we may not need a focal point as much). I also disagree with "always going to try to shoehorn Mount and Hudson-Odoi". He got an incredibly consistent front 3 towards the end of last season (Pulisic-Giroud-Willian), and made no attempts to disrupt it by giving Hudson-Odoi or Abraham minut… » Read

  6. The Fantasy Flutter: Can Nelson Semedo be the new Matt Doherty at Wolves? 29 days, 15 hours ago

    Thanks for suggesting! » Read

  7. The Fantasy Flutter: Can Nelson Semedo be the new Matt Doherty at Wolves? 29 days, 15 hours ago

    Help me pick one please! A) James/Coady, Foden, Son B) TAA, Podence, JRod » Read

  8. The Fantasy Flutter: Can Nelson Semedo be the new Matt Doherty at Wolves? 29 days, 15 hours ago

    Not a hit looking at the fixture (Brighton susceptible to long shots/counters/individual skill too) » Read

  9. The Fantasy Flutter: Can Nelson Semedo be the new Matt Doherty at Wolves? 29 days, 15 hours ago

    Think this is really: Salah vs Sterling and Foden vs Zaha I'd go with Sterling + Foden personally but that's me. » Read

  10. The Fantasy Flutter: Can Nelson Semedo be the new Matt Doherty at Wolves? 29 days, 15 hours ago

    Somehow ended up WC-ing into this power 7 lot (I feel Vinagre/Mitchell can be worked around with FTs since there will be a downgrade from Son to someone eventually). Can anyone talk me out of that defence haha? Martinez (Steer) James Coleman Lamptey (Vinagre Mitchell) Kdb Sterling Son Foden (Burke) Werner Jimenez DLC » Read

  11. Why I'm lining up for FPL Gameweek 3 without any Chelsea players 29 days, 20 hours ago

    Last game (the 3-1 win) season was the first time in 6 games that Spurs have scored 3 goals against Newcastle. Here's the results before that: 0-1 (loss). 1-0. 1-2. 1-0. 0-2. I'll admit wrong on the West Ham one and that's prob a good fixture the more I think about it (esp if Rice leaves), though again it is dicey. It's a London derby, they lost 2-0 away last season, but won 1-0 away the season before. West Ham do have a habit of turning up on these games, they beat Chelsea twice last season when Chelsea were in great form, and they were terrible. » Read

  12. Why I'm lining up for FPL Gameweek 3 without any Chelsea players 29 days, 21 hours ago

    I'd agree on the streakyness, him and Kane share that.... I've personally had him for the hauls so I liked it, but the fixtures put me off when you got the potential KdB-Sterling-Foden on WC. » Read

  13. Why I'm lining up for FPL Gameweek 3 without any Chelsea players 29 days, 21 hours ago

    Don't get me wrong man I love him, been a transfer in each season (in the last two seasons, I've done Salah->Son atleast 3 different times). I just don't think Mourinho's the same as Poch tho, he's only allowed that freedom (the kind Salah has for example) in certain games now :/ Even in Saints game, it took until half-time for Spurs to figure out this is the channel to attack, whereas in Poch you'd have thought Son would've been in far more often in the first half. Under Mou, I really like him when Kane's not playing though. » Read

  14. Why I'm lining up for FPL Gameweek 3 without any Chelsea players 29 days, 21 hours ago

    Don't really get the Son bandwagon in these circles. Spurs haven't really looked that good bar moments (i'd say more due to Saints than anything). Playing against Newcastle (no space in behind, likely out wide to keep the width for Alli or AM/Kane unless Reguilon prompts a change of role). Then it's followed up by playing against Wan-Bissaka. Then it's West Ham home (always dicey given since West Ham seem to always win against Spurs) and Burnley away. » Read