Planning anything in this crazy Fantasy Premier League season is proving rather difficult. Even as Iโm writing this, the Blank Gameweek 18 schedule has changed once again.
Aston Villaโs meeting with Tottenham Hotspur has now been officially called off, and in its place, Spursโ home game with Fulham has been added.
I keep telling myself to โembrace the chaosโ, but it does make planning kind of hard! However, as Fantasy managers, we need to adapt quickly, so in this, my latest column, Iโm going to talk Blank Gameweek 18, with a heavy focus on Manchester City and their opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion.
I will also touch upon some of the other teams involved this week, and highlight a few standout statistics relating to them.
BRIGHTONโS DEFENCE
Cityโs opponents in Blank Gameweek 18, Brighton, shipped another three goals against Wolverhampton Wanderers last time out, which takes them to a total of 28 this season. Only West Bromwich Albion (39), Leeds United (33), Crystal Palace and Sheffield United (29) have conceded more.
However, the defensive statistics suggest theyโve been a bit unlucky. Based on expected goals (xG), they should have conceded just 18.66. Theyโve also conceded the third fewest shots.
When analysing the goals theyโve let in, we can see six have been from penalties and seven from set-pieces. That suggests a lack of concentration, or discipline. Whatever you want to call it, itโs worrying, and to highlight it, you just need to watch Dan Burnโs (ยฃ4.2m) performance against Wolves in Gameweek 17.
The fact they tend to switch-off could also stem from the keeper. Before he was dropped, Matt Ryan (ยฃ4.3m) was obviously struggling, and I have doubts that Robert Sรกnchez (ยฃ4.4m) is the long-term solution. To be fair to him, he has made some good saves, but heโs still young and will make mistakes.
So, knowing Brighton are susceptible to conceding from set-plays, finding a place in your squad for one of Cityโs biggest aerial threats, Rรบben Dias (ยฃ5.8m) or John Stones (ยฃ5.0m), makes a lot of sense to me. Dias is due a goal too, having racked up an xG of 0.76 without scoring. It goes without saying that Kevin De Bruyne (ยฃ11.7m) is a good option too, but his set-pieces could be really important this week, which gives him the edge over team-mate Raheem Sterling (ยฃ11.4m).
MAN CITYโS DEFENCE, AND THE IMPACT OF DIAS AND STONES
City have conceded 13 goals in 15 Premier League games this season, and just three in their last 12 in all competitions. Dias has played a huge part in that, and has probably been their best player this term, but Stones has offered real balance alongside him. As a partnership, theyโve given up just one goal in eight starts together!
Pep Guardiolaโs side are clearly the best defensive play this week, and when you look at their schedule to follow (see below), a defensive double-up is really appealing.
CANCELOโS POSITIONING
Joรฃo Cancelo (ยฃ5.8m) has looked really sharp this season, standing in at left-back most of the time.
However, with Kyle Walker (ยฃ6.1m) out of action, heโs moved to the right, and has often found himself pushing ahead of the holding midfielder when in possession, and occupying spaces on the edge of the oppositions box.
To highlight this, hereโs his combined touch heatmap from the recent games against Newcastle United and Chelsea:
In Blank Gameweek 18, City will have a lot of possession in Brightonโs half, and will surely turn to the likes of Cancelo to unlock their defence. I know I say this a lot, but attacking returns look imminent here!
GUNDOGANโS NEW ROLE
Another player whose role has changed in recent weeks is Ilkay Gรผndogan (ยฃ5.4m), who has been taking up a more advanced position. Thatโs coincided with goals against West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle and Chelsea.
Rather than playing as a second player in a double-pivot, heโs now more of a number eight and taking up some smart positions in the box, something he touched upon in a recent interview:
โโฆ even though I like to be included in rotating the ball, when I am playing as a number eight and more offensive position, I try to put myself in the spaces where I think something could happen or I feel like the space is not occupied by a player of ours or the opponent. Both goals I scored in the last games were similar in the way they were from the right side and Raheem assisted me both goals and I tried to be in a space where I am free and able to get the ball and finish with one touch. It worked out quite well and as long as I am playing in that position I try to continue like that.โ – Ilkay Gรผndogan
His seven shots in the box and four big chances in their last four matches are more than any team-mate, and his five shots on target are joint-top with De Bruyne. Here you can see where heโs been shooting from over that period, with his attempts on target in green:
If Gรผndogan continues in this role, I think heโs a viable option, and if youโre not comfortable with a defensive double-up, pairing the German international with De Bruyne could be a nice play.
So, moving away from City, hereโs a few standout statistics and observations relating to some of the other teams involved this week:
- Manchester United have scored 21 goals in their seven Premier League away matches this season, averaging three per game โ not bad, is it? Itโs also worth noting Marcus Rashford (ยฃ9.6m) is yet to blank on his travels, registering six goals and four assists in seven appearances. Yes, Burnley are a decent defensive team, but can be exposed by better sides, and a midfield double-up involving Rashford and Bruno Fernandes (ยฃ11.3m) looks sound this week.
- Since Boxing Day, Arsenal have scored eight goals. Theyโve also taken more shots and had more attempts in the box than any other side during that time. This week, I see the wide players being key, so Bukayo Saka (ยฃ5.3m) is near the top of my Watchlist. Since moving to the right-flank, no midfielder has taken more shots in the box, and heโs also been on corner duties too. However, if youโre working with a smaller budget, Emile Smith Rowe (ยฃ4.4m) is another nice option.
- Though there have been signs of improvement at Arsenal recently, Wilfried Zaha (ยฃ7.4m) can cause them problems. Letโs not forget, the Gunners have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this season. I also think they look vulnerable against quick players who like to run at them, which should suit Zaha. If you can fit him in, he should do well.
- Over the course of the season, only two teams have given up more big chances than Sheffield United. Bearing in mind Callum Wilson (ยฃ6.6m) has been directly involved in five of Newcastleโs eight away goals in the Premier League this season, plugging him into one of your forward positions makes a lot of sense this week. The Blades are also on a club record 20 league matches without a win, and are yet to keep a clean sheet.
- In this climate, filling your Free Hit benches with Sheffield United and Newcastle players looks wise, seeing as they kick off shortly after deadline. The likes of Ethan Ampadu (ยฃ4.3m), Jayden Bogle (ยฃ4.3m), Rhian Brewster (ยฃ4.5m) and DeAndre Yedlin (ยฃ4.3m) are all cheap and should get some minutes, and at least contribute a few points from the bench in case of any disruption to Wednesday or Thursday nightโs fixtures.
So, best of luck in Blank Gameweek 18 everyone, and thanks for reading!
