Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Why an FPL manager’s identity is so important

A much-needed international break is a great time to consider that identity is still the most important element of playing Fantasy Premier League.

The game has evolved so much in the last few years. Ever since Mark Sutherns set up Fantasy Football Scout, information around it has grown at an exponential rate. We have so many websites and content creators at the moment (which in my opinion is great for the game) and for someone who is just starting at FPL, it is more about filtering through the gigantic amounts of information and opinions available. 

It was different during my time when I just started discovering the nuances of the game. Fantasy Football Scout was the start and finishing point for FPL information and the boards were where we discussed ideas about how to play this game and took it on as a group study project. These days, the discussions are spread further afield and the number of opinions has skyrocketed.

For me, this is where identity comes into play. At its core, FPL is about watching the football games and highlights and/or going through the statistics after which you pick players that are going to get you points for goals, assists and clean sheets. 

Does early FPL team news really provide an advantage?

Where everyone differs as FPL managers are primarily in three aspects:

  1. The mode of consumption of information. Some managers watch all the games, some watch a few games and the highlights while looking at some statistics and there are some who don’t watch the games at all but spend a lot more time looking at statistics.
  2. The interpretation of information. How every interprets the games and the statistics is different.
  3. The application of information to FPL. Managers differ in their patience levels, risk tolerance levels (temperament is such a huge factor here) and play-style.

When I started out as an FPL manager, it was the risk-takers (Mark included) and their play style that attracted me. In 2012/13, my first full season as an ‘involved’ FPL manager, effective ownership was not a thing, the focus was on picking good players and, at times, looking for good differentials. 

I have generally found a lot of the old-school managers or those who I am still (fondly) in touch with pay a lot less attention to effective ownership compared to the newer breed of FPL managers. Furthermore, a lot of the managers who are not on social media pay even less attention to it.

And they are all good FPL managers with consistent top finishes. There is a current narrative that if you grind your way through the season playing relatively safely, it is the only way to achieve consistent top finishes. I very much disagree with this narrative as I know of lots of top managers who are at the top not because they take risks or because they are risk averse, but because they are good at collecting and interpreting information and applying it to FPL. 

This is where we revisit the matter of filtering FPL information. For people that are just starting out, you first need to rely on objective articles and highlights for the information. That’s the easy part. How you interpret and apply this information is where it gets tricky. 

I have realised that you develop a ‘flexible’ style of FPL over the years and this will not happen overnight. The more you play this game, the more variety of content you consume, you will find yourself relating to some and not relating to others. 

When you’re relating to someone, it essentially means that it is probably your comfort zone in terms of playing the game. You come up with ideas (and sometimes adopt good ones) while talking to others on the forums and social media platforms and consuming content and that builds you as an FPL manager with your own identity. What you then become is an amalgamation of the experiences and interactions you have had as an FPL manager and that is constantly evolving. 

Even your style as a manager is changing, week on week. Psychology and temperament have such a huge effect on you every week and you don’t even know how your subconscious is affecting you each time. A decision you make as an FPL manager this week might change based on the size of the green or the red arrows. 

I have generally found the good managers are the ones that are not affected by the results but focus on the process. Temperament is an incredibly underrated thing in FPL and a lot of the managers who are risk averse grafters have an amazing temperament who remained disciplined for the course of nine months (incredibly difficult to do this which is why it is so commendable). 

I do not have this discipline and temperament and have realised, on many occasions, the risky calls I take when they come through hide a lot of the smaller errors I have made during the course of the season. 

I also know that subconsciously, there is a reason why I am always chasing the ‘ideal’ team on paper week on week and I am very attracted to having the high-reward picks. 

Before 2012/13, you will see seasons in my history where I’ve had 500 and 1200 points. This was a result of having monthly competitions with my closest rival which led to us taking multiple hits at the end of every month in an attempt to win the next ‘month’. I have realised this has affected me subconsciously as an FPL manager which is why I am always chasing high upside hauls in the short term, which I am very comfortable with.

This season, I am sitting outside the top one million ahead of Gameweek 30. This most recent international break helped me understand why I made bad decisions at the start of the season. When we play FPL, you can honestly find any statistics or rationale to back whatever narrative you want to believe. 

I started this campaign at the back of my personal best in 2020/21, where I came 30th in the world and finished top of India for the second time in my career. However, I definitely had a weaker filter than I normally would and my confidence in my own ability and arrogance that whatever idea my brain concocted was correct led to me not questioning my own ‘narratives’ enough due to which I made some bad calls. 

Something similar happened to me in 2016/17 when I finished with an overall rank of 49,211. I went into that season at the back of three years where I finished 189th, 2,212th and 77th. I mentally noted the same tendency in that season as well and I definitely have this as one of the reasons for my poor season. 

Coming back to identity and finding the ‘right’, I strongly believe that there is one fact.

There is no right or optimal way to play FPL.

It completely and fully comes down to identity. By identity, I mean you could be better than someone at interpreting statistics compared to eye-test, you might be better than others at consuming information rather than applying it or you could be really good at dealing with a disastrous Gameweek because you have a strong temperament.

The right way to play FPL is the one that suits your skill-set (you will discover this over time), your ability to adapt and your temperament. I have mentioned so many times there are so many managers with varying play-style that are consistently finishing well. Some are safe. Some take a lot of risks. Some look at only statistics. The season I finished 189th, I looked at zero statistics for the whole year. 

I know for sure I will do a lot poorer as a safe manager because I get no enjoyment from the game having a ‘fully’ template team. I absolutely hated my template Wildcard and was so downbeat about it. I enjoyed the games a lot more when there are one, two or three differentials in my squad. 

Also, I simply lack the discipline to continue ‘grafting’ for a whole FPL season. I would die a slow death playing that way and it would suck the enjoyment out of me. 

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

I am aware of my identity and even then I am looking to improve every year. FPL Salah on Twitter did an excellent thread about how to avoid a bad start in FPL and I’m contemplating starting next season more safe than usual (I generally always start poorly). 

FPL Salah has a great identity as a grafter. Mark is the perfect example of someone who is placed correctly between both sides of the coin. Simon (analytic_fpl) is a manager who swears by xG and I admire that because he has found his identity as an FPL manager. 

My fellow Pro Pundit Tom Freeman has one of the most astute eye-tests in the game and more often than not looks at things many others don’t while making his decisions. RoysCallerAnne and Epic Fail who are regulars on the Fantasy Football Scout boards have many outstanding finishes and are as maverick as they come. 

Point being, there is no set formula. Do not look down upon people who have carved their own identity as FPL managers if it differs from yours. I personally admire and encourage people who go behind their own philosophies very strongly. And, for what it’s worth, FPL is not just about getting consistent high finishes. Most play this game for fun and what fun are you having if you are not discovering and sticking to your own identity?

361 Comments Post a Comment
  1. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC draft? End up with 0.1atb but Castagne is downgradable.

    Mendy (Areola)
    Shaw Cresswell Castagne (Rudiger Coady)
    KDB Bruno Jota Lingard Neto
    Kane Vardy (Iheanacho)

    1. b91jh
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      It is for gw31***

    2. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Looks great, honestly can't fault it.

    3. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I like the side. What is your OR?
      If high, I would be tempted to go more outside the box.
      Think of Alonso, Mahrez. You have the subs to cope.
      No Pool apart from Jota could cost you.
      Arsenal fixtures could help too.
      Still like the side though if in top 100k

      1. b91jh
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        99k currently. I like Arsenal's fixture and ownership but the Europa rotations may be an issue tho. Mahrez is surely a good shout too as long as the bench is strong enough. Cheers.

  2. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    How do we rate Aubameyangs prospect for points Vs Liverpool?

    1. thegaffer82
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I want to sell him.

      Might not even start 🙁

  3. The Rumour Mill
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    So much conflicting advice on FF strategy going around. On one hand you have the likes of Az and lateriser advising to back your judgement and go for what you think is right. On the other you have Joe who always assumes he is wrong about a player and likes to have exit strategies for each of them.

    Another example is the corridor of uncertainty podcast where Jamie and Simon had upmost faith in their models and backed the players it suggested from the start of the season...and then they got fpl_salah on the pod who blew that whole theory out the water with one sentence: "so you boys assume you're right about a player do you?".

    It's almost as if luck dictates which strategy is a good one depending on what happened the most recent week(s) 😉

    1. Thomas Jerome Newton
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I've heard that rumour 😉

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Playing fantasy sports is like betting but without money exchanging hands.

      Basically you’re trying to predict what will happen in the future, in this case on a set of games that are yet to be played.

      Since no one can actually predict with accuracy what is going to happen in the future you can only hope that the choices you make will return favourable results for you.

      You still need skill to make good judgement calls, but no matter who you pick as a player, but once the matches start you have no control over how those players perform.

      That’s the luck bit, I guess.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      You'd almost think there's more than one way to play the game 😉

    4. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      If you don't assume you're right about your prediction, then you can't make decisions. Like,

      "I've decided that this decision is likely to get the most points"

      "Ah, so therefore the decision is wrong"

      I don't get it.

      If you want to trust the wisdom of the crowd more (a bit boring, but okay, maybe it could result in more points), then you need to find a good way to factor that in. I've never seen or heard any proposal for a good way to do that.

      EO is about ownership, rather than people's unbiased opinions of which decision you should make (and is self-fulfilling, since people apparently buy and captain highly owned assets for the reason that they trust the corwd, which everyone would have to admit is not predictive of the points they'd get (because the crowd isn't predicting the points in this case).

      EO in top10k is no better, since it's skewed towards teams that have players who have done well in the past (again, not about predicting the future).

      Captain poll is skewed heavily towards ownership. Etc etc

      I guess that's why people outsource their decision-making with A/B questions and the like. I use this as a springboard for discussion (rarely works) or to help get insights and updates I may have missed. But if a few votes from people who aren't paying their full attention skews your decision (I'm sure it does, mine), then it's another bad method to use the wisdom of the crowd.

      I'd like to hear some good arguments, not only for why, but for how to use the wisdom of the crowd.

      Or if EO is not about the wisdom of the crowd, then what is the benefit?

    5. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I think using EO to play safe is just the socially acceptable way to admit you are below average (among serious players) at one or more of the types of decisions to be made in the game: transfers, captaincy, benching decisions, setting up your initial team, wildcarding, and playing other chips. Probably only a handful of managers are above average at all of these.

      For example, I have a worse captaincy score this season than what I would have had by selecting the preferred captain choice of the top 10k managers as they showed on BlackBox. I could decide that this means I am below average at picking captains and should just defer to the majority on this one type of decision. I could still make my own decisions in other areas, but try to eliminate this area of weakness by deferring to others. It would be similar to how a lot of managers try to eliminate the benching decision from the game by spending all their money on the starting XI with just maybe one 4.5 defender as an auto-sub option, and then the rest of their bench is fodder. You eliminate the downside risk and focus on maximising your strengths.

      Of course, Az and Lateriser say this is irrelevant because it's no fun to play the game this way, but many managers feel like it maximises their chances of achieving their goals.

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Of course the highest-scoring teams in FPL have higher captaincy scores on average. The two things will correlate. If your captains had done well, you would also have a better rank.

  4. The Mighty Whites
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    1FT, 1.3 ITB, thoughts?

    Martinez, Pope

    Cancelo, Dias, Dallas, Coufal, Veltman

    Aubameyang, Fernandes, Son, Lingard, Raphinha

    Kane, Bamford, Antonio

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      This is the trouble with Bamford and Raphina. You almost always end up having to bench one of them.

      I’d save the transfer too.

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Son to Mahrez may be worth a punt.