Alexander-Arnold FPL form boosts Mané’s differential potential for BGW33

Blank Gameweek 33 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and Wolves who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Sadio Mané

• FPL ownership: 4.9%
• Price: £11.7m
• GW33-37 fixtures: NEW | mun | SOU | wba | bur

Sadio Mané (£11.7m) has struggled for form at Liverpool this season, particularly since the turn of the year, but was back among the goals in Double Gameweek 32 as he helped the Reds to a 1-1 draw at Leeds United.

The Senegalese forwards first-half strike at Elland Road represented his first in the Premier League since netting against Tottenham Hotspur back in January, and the hope is now that a weight has been lifted off his shoulders, and he can finish the season strongly.

His lack of form in 2021 is hard to explain. He has underperformed his expected goals (xG) by 3.43 in the league, compared to an overperformance of 3.89 in 2019/20, when he scored 18 Premier League goals and provided 10 assists. However, he is shooting more often this term, but has perhaps been missing that explosiveness in certain moments which makes his such a threat in the final-third.

Pleasingly for FPL managers, in light of Liverpool’s exit from the Champions League, the focus for Jürgen Klopp’s side is now entirely geared towards finishing in the top four. That should mean that rotation is kept to a minimum, and with a favourable run of fixtures till the end of the season, which starts with Newcastle United tomorrow, pairing Mané with Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) could be a shrewd move for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Crucially, the recent return to top form of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) could make all the difference. He is Liverpool’s top chance creator over the last six matches and, excluding Fantasy assists, the right-back has provided more assists for Mané (eight) than any colleague since his Premier League debut.

Meanwhile, Newcastle are second-worst for giving up headed attempts on goal during the same period, in which Mané is second only to Nathaniel Phillips (£4.1m) for aerial shots among Liverpool players.

It is fair to say we’ve seen a dip in Mané’s usual standards this year, but with his confidence growing, and circumstances elsewhere in the team, he could be a nice differential pick for the run-in, especially in Blank Gameweek 33.

Gabriel Martinelli

• FPL ownership: 0.2%
• Price: £4.9m
• GW33-37 fixtures: EVE | new | WBA | che | cry

Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) returned from an injury problem earlier this season, but has found first-team opportunities limited over the past few months. However, he has now started back-to-back Premier League matches and made a real impact.

Against Sheffield United, he took his chance and scored, and was then handed another start against Fulham on Sunday. Playing most of the match off the left, his clever movement tormented Ola Aina (£4.5m) throughout, and he was perhaps unfortunate not to return again, given his good underlying numbers and -1.36 expected goal involvement (xGI) delta.

Game time has been the only issue holding the Brazilian back, but with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m) currently unavailable having contracted malaria, plus Alexandre Lacazette (£8.4m) out with a hamstring injury, Martinelli should keep his starting spot in Gameweek 33. He may even take up a central role with Mikel Arteta suggesting centre forward is his best position.

Whilst Arsenal will have one eye on their Europa League semi-final against Villarreal next week, tonight’s fixture against Everton remains an important one as they look to finish as high as possible in the Premier League. After that, they travel to relegation battling Newcastle United, before returning home to the Emirates for a tie against West Bromwich Albion, another team hoping to avoid the drop.

In a relatively short space of time, Martinelli has proven he has the ability to thrive in the Premier League, and could be a useful budget asset for the run-in.

Daniel Podence

• FPL ownership: 1.1%
• Price: £5.3m
• GW33-37 fixtures: BUR | wba | BHA | tot | eve

Despite a stop-start first full season at Wolverhampton Wanderers, largely due to injuries, Daniel Podence (£5.3m) is showing signs that he is almost back to full fitness.

The 25-year-old was among Wolves’ best players in the opening weeks, netting a goal as well as providing two assists in six appearances between Gameweek 1 and 7. However, two separate injuries stalled his progress and have forced him to miss the majority of 2021.

Now back in the starting XI, he was unfortunate not to register an assist against Fulham in Gameweek 31, after Willian José (£6.8m)’s goal on the stroke of half-time was ruled out by a tight VAR call. And while it’s fair to say he was nowhere near his top-level against Sheffield United last weekend, he did play a key role in starting the attack for the game’s only goal.

The number 10’s appeal is further boosted by the visit of Burnley on Sunday. Uncharacteristically, the Clarets have been making lots of defensive errors recently, keeping just two clean sheets in their last 15 matches. It is also worth noting that over the last six, only the Blades’ have conceded more big chances.

With Pedro Neto (£5.6m) requiring surgery and ruled out for the remainder of the season, his absence could allow Podence to thrive, and rediscover his best form in the final six games.