Spot the Differential
1 April 2022 477 comments
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Double Gameweek 31 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JADON SANCHO

Leeds’ defence, Sancho’s form, Barnes injury latest: FPL notes
  • FPL ownership: 2.8%
  • Price: £8.9m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: LEI | eve | NOR + liv | ars | BRE

Jadon Sancho (£8.9m) endured a slow start to his career at Manchester United following his summer move from Borussia Dortmund but has improved dramatically since the turn of the year.

In his last six matches, the winger has netted two goals and supplied three assists, blanking in just one of his five starts in that period. Notably, no midfielder has racked up more attacking returns, while he also leads the way amongst teammates for points, bonus points and points per start. His shot volume in that time isn’t significant (just nine have arrived in the box), but the quality of those attempts have been good, with three deemed ‘big chances’ by Opta.

Now, out of all cup competitions at home and abroad, United are one of three top-seven sides who are free to concentrate solely on league matches between now and the end of the season. They face struggling Everton and Norwich City soon, along with two clubs who have packed schedules over the coming two months, Leicester City and Liverpool.

Despite recent improvements, Gameweek 31 opponents Leicester have only managed one clean sheet on the road all season, while the advanced positioning of James Justin (£4.9m) and Timothy Castagne (£5.3m) last time out suggests Sancho could get some joy in behind.

As for United, at times they are still disjointed, but it’s worth noting that only Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have recorded more big chances across their last six matches.

Sancho – who is fully rested after being omitted from Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the recent friendlies with Switzerland and Ivory Coast – is recreating the type of form he showed in the Bundesliga of late, and could be an effective midfield differential to capitalise on this kind run of fixtures.

JOEL MATIP

  • FPL ownership: 4.3%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: WAT | mci | MUN | EVE | new

Joel Matip (£5.0m) has been a real surprise package in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) since the turn of the year, averaging an impressive 7.3 points per start.

In his last six outings, the defender has racked up eight returns (one goal, two assists and five clean sheets) and 50 FPL points, more than any other team-mate bar Andrew Robertson (£7.3m), with who he is level with.

In an attacking sense, his threat is limited compared to others, but his marauding runs forward have become a regular occurrence this season and become a trademark of his playing style. It’s also worth noting that among colleagues, only Mohamed Salah (£13.3m), Sadio Mane (£11.7m) and Diogo Jota (£8.3m) have attempted more shots in the box than Matip in 2021/22.

The former Cameroon international is clearly in the form of his life and, as a result, has now completed 90 minutes in eight of Liverpool’s last nine Premier League encounters, a period which has seen the Reds keep seven clean sheets. Ibrahima Konate (£5.1m) could, of course, impact his minutes going forward, but the feeling is that Matip is first-choice, and with the title still up for grabs, he is surely in pole position to start most matches.

After back-to-back shut-outs against Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal in Double Gameweek 29, Liverpool are currently at their defensive best as they continue to challenge for the Premier League title. They have kept 17 sheets in 29 Premier League matches this season, and boast the division’s third-best backline, with their 20 goals conceded only marginally more than Manchester City and Chelsea.

This weekend’s opponents – Watford – are also in poor attacking form, scoring just three goals in six road trips under new boss Roy Hodgson.

Loading up on Liverpool assets is a no-brainer, but if your budget won’t stretch to the premium defenders, FPL bosses could do a lot worse than look at Matip.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans 6
  • FPL ownership: 3.4%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: whu + bur | MUN | LEI | liv | CHE

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has been struggling for form in recent weeks, but given that Everton are one of only two sides who ‘double’ in Gameweek 31, he might just be worth considering.

The 25-year-old showed glimpses of his quality in Gameweek 29, as he produced an excellent assist for Alex Iwobi’s (£5.8m) late winner against Newcastle United.

Now, the Blues’ number nine will be determined to show last season’s 21 goals in all competitions wasn’t just a flash in the pan, and will almost certainly have benefitted from some rigorous training sessions over the international break, something Frank Lampard touched on in Friday’s press conference.

“The break has been positive for Dominic (Calvert-Lewin). He was playing short of fitness. We’ve worked well with him over the last couple of weeks. Without putting undue pressure on him… he’s in a good place.” – Frank Lampard on Dominic Calvert-Lewin

However, there are wider issues that make this a risky punt: the Toffees have won fewer away points than any other side in the Premier League this season, while just one goal in their last six matches against Premier League opposition is also a concern.

On a more positive note, they do have two further fixtures still to be arranged, which should result in two further ‘doubles’ during the run-in.

Calvert-Lewin is quite simply the biggest scoring threat for Frank Lampard, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance he will be central to it.

477 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Usual fomo panic strewn mess. Any view on best option? Not certain on FH strategy sadly.

    Ramsdale
    TAA* Gabriel Doherty Robbo
    Coutinho Raphinha Saka Salah
    Broja Kane
    (Dubravka: Saiss Ramsey Jimi) 2FT 0.6itb

    A (Mr Sensible). Saiss, Jimenez to Weghorst, James
    B (Get it done). Saiss, Jimenez, Gabriel to Cancelo, James, Gelhardt (-4)
    C (Fruity). Saiss, Jimenez, Coutinho to Gelhardt, 1 of Cancelo/James and 1 of Sancho/Havertz (-4)

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B if you have played the BB already. A if you haven't

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Have used the BB yeah, just 1x FH left

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          B looks sweet then

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Think I'd go with B, if you're getting both of James and Cancelo in I think there's more upside in doing it this week given the fixtures than waiting on one to avoid a hit. Keeping Coutinho probably for the best with a double incoming soon

    3. MJF
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I reckon FOMO is one of the biggest reasons people make mistakes in FPL.

        Chill the fook oot man,

    4. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Laca + Kilman + Ramsey > Weghorst + Cancelo + Gordon -4

      Y/N?

      Throw in Rudi > Reece for another -4? Exact funds

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Hmm quite like the -4. Not sure on the extra hit

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Cheers!

      2. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Do you need that Ramsey spot to play?

    5. OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      anyone tempted to do DCL over Weg??

      1. DandyDon
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Richarlison maybe better, DCL doesn't seem to have returned fully if you know what i mean, not same player as last time he was fit.

    6. Lallana_
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Worth getting rid of Son or TAA to get Kane in? Got Kulu as well.

      Think my best move is Jimenez>Weghorst (no hit) and be without Kane.

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Keep Son & TAA

      2. waltzingmatildas
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah reckon the Jimmy move

    7. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      James or Rudi on wc?

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        James

      2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        James

      3. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        James

    8. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Leaning towards James over Cancelo.
      Got the bench right?

      Pope
      TAA Robbo James Tierney
      Salah Raph Saka Martinelli
      Kane Weghorst
      (Sanchez Doherty Broja Ramsey)

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Play Doh over Tierney imo

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • 15 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah tight one, just feel like Newcastle will score.
          Cheers

        2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I'd be tempted by this although I can see the merits in both options. Arsenal a better defensive unit but Palace away is a tough game even with Zaha/Olise possibly missing out

    9. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would have liked to go for Sancho this week and initially planned to, but hard to let go of Son

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        You backing out of it? For me, having Son/Kane/Salah just locks up my team so much that it feels like the rest of the season would be too boring with only a 6.5m mid spot to play with

        1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I don't think it's worth it despite the short-term gain. Spurs have a solid run of fixtures while really it's just the 3 for ManUtd (1 of which I can use FH for) so I can keep Son for the season. Son is nailed while Sancho may still sit the odd game out too, as well as ManUtd's generally indifferent form.

          My team is pretty OK for value and funds, after bringing in James now I currently have TAA, Cancelo, James, Salah, Son, Kane and 0.4itb. If I really need to make more I'll do TAA to Robbo but any other ideas I have in mind I can afford (Elyounoussi to Martinelli next week, followed by FH, and then I have the other FH for 36/37 too)

        2. popey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I alos have Kane/Son/Salah and been wrestling with this.

          Obviously I would love to keep Son but I will never captain him given I have Kane and Salah and downgrading to Foden/Sancho releases a lot of funds for premium defenders

      2. waltzingmatildas
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Tough this week. Like the move though

    10. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ramsdale Dubravka
      TAA AR Doherty White Kilman
      Salah Son Saka Raphinha Eriksen
      Kane Toney Broja

      1FT, 0.5 in the bank.

      Is there any obvious free transfer worth doing? Or do you see any combination of players who would be worth buying for a hit?

      1. Arteta
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks for help in advance!

      2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I think you're well set up, definite roll for me. Good luck!

    11. Ask Yourself
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Okay to roll or Reguilon > Roberts (MCI, EVE)?

      Sanchez (NOR)
      TAA* (WAT) Robbo (WAT) Jakes (BRE) Reguilon (NEW)
      Salah (WAT) Saka (cpl) Willock (tot) Fraser (tot)
      Kane (NEW) Weghorst (MCI, EVE)

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Bench is DDG Mac Allister Dennis Targett

      2. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Roll

      3. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        save

      4. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks both

      5. Jock Grealish
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Roberts v MCI/EVE screams 3 points total

    12. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Save the FT?
      Pickford
      TAA,Cancelo,Doherty,Tarkowski
      Salah,Kulu,Saka,Odegaard,
      Kane,Lacazette

      Sa,Broja,Barnes,Digne 0.5m itb 1 FT.
      Chips remaining - 2 FH's, BB

      1. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Save

      2. Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I like it

      3. linkafu
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Save

    13. dshv
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ddg foster
      Taa rudiger cancelo white cash
      Salah son saka kuku jwp
      Lacazette weghorst jimenez

      How to continue the game with WC BB FH to do...

    14. DandyDon
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ok was happy with Captain on Salah this week but I think Kane is best option and a good way to get a rank increase...
      Spurs equally must win game as for Pool.
      3 double digit scores in last 4 against Newcastle, although they have improved.
      Newcastle can almost take it easy now, no danger of relagation like Watford have.
      Kane fresher than Salah who went to extra time again I think with Egypt
      Slight rotation risk for Salah as Pool have other another option now in Diaz.

      1. TheDragon
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        It’s certainly a good way to get a big change in rank (one way or the other)

      2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        For what it's worth I'm going with Kane myself, Newcastle have been better defensively for sure but Spurs look to be picking up momentum and Kane is in top form. Salah meanwhile is facing a much better fixture but hasn't actually been picking up great returns, 4g 0a since GW24 when he returned from AFCON, including 3 penalties. Kane is still a risk but going with him over Salah in recent weeks has done me well and I'm happy to do it again

        1. DandyDon
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yea might join you. Not sure if the early kick off with Salah is a positive or not for him? Early kickoff usually means low scoring but Pool often do well in those fixtures.

          1. DandyDon
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            just looked it up, Pool have already beaten Watford 5-0 this season in an early kick off. Out of three games this season they are 9-0 up on aggregate!

            1. DandyDon
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              saying that Kane did againt Newcastle match Salah's score against Watford around the same gameweek - both got a goal and assist.

          2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Honestly I don't place too much value in the early kick-off thing. Sure historically it may overall have less goals than the 5.30PM Saturday slot but it all depends on a lot of variables. Liverpool tend to score a lot, Watford tend to concede a lot, i wouldn't think much else.

            Only possible things I'd keep in mind are the big games coming up for Liverpool and that we're at the business end of the season. Results since the Leeds game were 0-0 (EFL), 2-1 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0 (FA Cup), albeit they faced better opposition than Watford in a few of those. They might be focusing on simply closing games out more than anything at the minute.

    15. Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      1 FT and 1.9 ITB. Have WC, BB and FH left.

      A - Lamptey > James
      B - JWP > Havertz
      C - Roll FT

      Sa
      Cancelo - Dier - Coady - TAA
      Salah (c) - KDB - Saka - Kulu - JWP
      Weghorst

      Bachman - Lamptey - Broja - Dennis

      1. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I like A and B .
        Probably Havertz first as its a good spot to move across to Sancho or Foden later.

        1. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Cheers mate, Havertz has hauled well lately and seems to pop up with crucial goals

          1. Jock Grealish
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Chelsea likely to rotate squad next few weeks and they don't have double in 33.

    16. Flynny
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hi....who would you bench out of:

      A....doherty v Newcastle

      B...coutinho at wolves

      Chance coutinho rested after Brazil games? Thanks

      1. lilmessipran
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Toughie but would probably start the attacker

        1. Energetics
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          B

    17. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Start one-

      A Davies
      B Broja

      1. popey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Davies (have same choice)

    18. Energetics
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ramsdale
      Robertson T.Silva Doherty
      Salah Kulu Raph Saka Martinelli
      Kane Weghorst

      Dubravka Broja Saiss Taa

      This is how I had set up, with the possibility Taa may now play do I start him?

      Who drops to the bench?

    19. DandyDon
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would you play Ramsey (Wol A), Livramento or Broja (Lee A)?

      Neither of the Southampton boys played last time so thinking I just take my likely 2 or 3 with Ramsey?
      He did of course get 10 pts last away game though.

    20. rilo
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hmm I have FT. Saiss-> Cancelo and bench Coutinho? Or save ? Rest od the team is ok for this GW

      1. Energetics
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Id make the transfer

    21. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Which one to play?

      Watkins, Coady or Broja?

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ollie

    22. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Play one:
      A. Maupay
      B. Broja

      1. JPSpurs
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Broja

      2. linkafu
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A

    23. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Best move?

      A. Jim >> Weg (bench Doherty)
      B. Save FT (risk having Dalot/Toney coming)

      DDG
      TAA. Cancelo. Tierney. Doherty
      Salah. Saka. Raphinha. Kulu. Martinelli
      Kane
      (Foster, Jimenez, Toney, Dalot)

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A looks good

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          That’s Pat! Means a benching headache though. Is Doherty my best bet?

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Thanks*

    24. linkafu
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pope
      Robbo Doherty White
      Kulu Raphina Saka Martinelli Salah
      Kane Pukki

      Heaton Saiss Justin Jimenez

      A- Jimenez to Weghorst for - 4
      B- Save

    25. Lilac Breasted Roller
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      On a WC, aiming for a team for the run-in incl 33 saving FH for later.

      A) (BB is overrated) Keep KDB and Saka, 5 semi-cheapos with Gordon, Greenwood (the fwd), Schär, Amartey, Broja)
      B) Sacrifice KDB for Sancho, upgrade the rest
      C) Sacrifice Saka for Martinelli/ESR, upgrade the rest
      D) Sacritice Havertz for ...

      Holy cows that are not getting butchered: Salah, Kane, Cancelo

      1. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Pretty much the same conundrum as me with the same holy cows and same players up for grabs.
        I have kind of landed on Fernandez as somewhat of a KDB placeholder so I have someone good in dgw33

        1. Lilac Breasted Roller
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          yeah starting to lean towards a variant of B, I don't like the bench being that weak with James in the team and it weakens BB as well.

    26. Davew88
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Rudi to James for free?

      1. Jock Grealish
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        waste of a transfer

    27. harrysponge
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A) White

      B) Chalobah

      Thanks!

      1. linkafu
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A

    28. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Who is priority to bring in this week Cancelo or James?

      1. No Kane No Gain
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Neither is a priority. Both not certain to start this week

    29. Taegugk Warrior
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      To play :
      A. Tierney
      B. TAA
      C. Ramsey
      D. Broja

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        TAA

      2. linkafu
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        B with Broja first sub and Tierney second

    30. 1justlookin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Is Havertz worth the extra money over Kulusevski?

    31. grennans2
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Bring in James or Cancelo?

    32. tissae
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Watkins + Raphinha -> Weghorst + Havertz for free?