Leicester hit over 60 goals for the third season in a row under Brendan Rodgers, despite the UEFA Europa League/Conference League sideshow and myriad injury issues.
The underlying stats aren’t as impressive, with the Foxes ranked 15th for both goal attempts and shots in the box.
While the overall shot count was way down on those of many other teams, Leicester did carve out quality opportunities with the attacks they had.
Rodgers’ troops were fourth in the Premier League for big chances per shot (16.78%).
Despite the respectable rate of big chances, Leicester still had to spectacularly ‘overachieve’ on the expected goals (xG, above) front to hit the 60-goal mark.
No club came close to matching their whopping xG delta of +9.15.
But if you think that’s unsustainable, the gap between xG and actual goals was even more extreme (+11.86) in 2020/21.
Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) were a massive part of last season’s overachievement: one’s a clinical finisher from close range, the other possesses a dead eye from distance.
Vardy and Maddison’s combined xG deltas were +7.92, accounting for a big chunk of the overall Foxes figure.
LAST SEASON: DEFENCE
Total
Rank v other Premier League clubs*
Goals conceded
59
14th
Clean sheets
7
17th
Shots conceded
565
17th
Shots in the box conceded
392
=18th
Shots on target conceded
192
18th
Big chances conceded
88
16th
Expected goals conceded (xGC)
70.77
17th
Far less impressive were Leicester’s defensive numbers, which are more relegation candidate material than top-eight challenger.
Ranked in the bottom four for the concession of shots, efforts on target, attempts in the box and expected goals (xGC), they were also 17th for clean sheets with a miserable seven.
It could even have been worse: Opta’s xGC data estimated that the Foxes should have shipped over 70 goals, rather than the 59 that actually flew in.
Set plays were a real Achilles heel, as no club allowed more chances from free-kicks and corners (176) or had a worse xGC from dead-ball situations (20.0).
Leicester had rotten luck with injuries last season, with not one of what could feasibly be described as their first-choice back four – Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin and Wesley Fofana (all £4.5m) – starting more than 16 league games.
Midfield shield Wilfried Ndidi (£5.0m) didn’t fare much better, only making the starting XI on 18 occasions.
Not once was Rodgers able to name those five players in the same team in 2021/22.
The Castagne-Fofana-Evans-Justin back four was in place on just three occasions last season, all of them without Ndidi, with Leicester conceding exactly one goal in each fixture.
OPENING FIXTURES
The opening fixtures aren’t great, with four ‘big six’ sides to come in the first eight Gameweeks.
That sees the Foxes rank a lowly 17th on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty.
A Brentford side missing arguably both their first-choice centre-halves and a Southampton outfit that the Foxes scored six goals against last season could be favourable opponents in Gameweeks 1 and 3, however.
The time to pounce would seem to be Gameweeks 9-16, the start of which is immediately after the September international break.
Rodgers’ side rise to second in our Season Ticker for that string of games, with two newly promoted sides and Leeds, Wolves and Everton among the opponents to come.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
Pereira’s injury should make the back four easy to predict, if it is indeed a back four: Justin could alternatively play as a third centre-half, with Luke Thomas (£4.5m) or Marc Albrighton (£5.0m) fielded at wing-back.
Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) was traditionally a secure starter for the Foxes but with the Belgian supposedly wanting to depart the club, he’s not been all that prominent in the pre-season line-ups.
Fairly happy with my draft. What's peoples thoughts? No Spurs, but I just can't get them in with Salah and Haaland without weakening the rest of the team. Salah Captain, Haaland next week.
Think I'm going to go against the template teams and go for a threemium. Thoughts would be appreciated:
Ramsdale Walker, TAA, Dalot Martinelli, Bailey, Neto, Salah Jesus, Haaland, Kane (Ward, Cucurella (if he joins chelsea Trippier if not), N.Williams, Andreas)
Ah a good ol’ fashioned 3-4-3. Looks good to be fair. Only thing I don’t like is the defence. Have doubts about Walker long term and not convinced on Dalot (or Man U).
Is anyone giving serious thought to Leeds attackers? I personally can't fit Bamford in, and he's still a bit if a wait and see. But the 3 behind him are cheap and gave a nice run of games
Really sherlock? The point was more there are minimal options at those price points, having two midfielders less than 6m you could argue is a risk if they both blank. So we'll see.
Pretty much all Man Utd assets are a “wait and see” for me. Could be one to visit later in the season though when the fixtures turn for the better and we see how they have adapted.
And we know Haaland is going to get rested, and if I was Pep and I knew I had to rest him , I'd rest him on the easier home fixtures. It may not play out like that, but his rest threat rules him out for me. That said, i suspect he'll play in GW2 with high potential for a high score.
Thanks, I think that's the biggest risk with this squad I just think Son and Kane are going to rake in points and Haaland may start slow that's my thinking but appreciate the feedback
RMT Sanchez TAA Robbo Dalot Cancelo Salah(c) Mahrez Martinelli Neto Haaland(v) Jesus Ward Neco Andreas Plange Only real concern for me at the moment is which 3rd non playing striker is least likely to loose value quicker than the others.
Why no one interested in Pickford at 4.5? Decent fixtures after GW1. I know its Everton but are the likes of Brighton and Brentford likely to keep any more clean sheets?
