Leicester hit over 60 goals for the third season in a row under Brendan Rodgers, despite the UEFA Europa League/Conference League sideshow and myriad injury issues.
The underlying stats aren’t as impressive, with the Foxes ranked 15th for both goal attempts and shots in the box.
While the overall shot count was way down on those of many other teams, Leicester did carve out quality opportunities with the attacks they had.
Rodgers’ troops were fourth in the Premier League for big chances per shot (16.78%).
Despite the respectable rate of big chances, Leicester still had to spectacularly ‘overachieve’ on the expected goals (xG, above) front to hit the 60-goal mark.
No club came close to matching their whopping xG delta of +9.15.
But if you think that’s unsustainable, the gap between xG and actual goals was even more extreme (+11.86) in 2020/21.
Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) were a massive part of last season’s overachievement: one’s a clinical finisher from close range, the other possesses a dead eye from distance.
Vardy and Maddison’s combined xG deltas were +7.92, accounting for a big chunk of the overall Foxes figure.
LAST SEASON: DEFENCE
Total
Rank v other Premier League clubs*
Goals conceded
59
14th
Clean sheets
7
17th
Shots conceded
565
17th
Shots in the box conceded
392
=18th
Shots on target conceded
192
18th
Big chances conceded
88
16th
Expected goals conceded (xGC)
70.77
17th
Far less impressive were Leicester’s defensive numbers, which are more relegation candidate material than top-eight challenger.
Ranked in the bottom four for the concession of shots, efforts on target, attempts in the box and expected goals (xGC), they were also 17th for clean sheets with a miserable seven.
It could even have been worse: Opta’s xGC data estimated that the Foxes should have shipped over 70 goals, rather than the 59 that actually flew in.
Set plays were a real Achilles heel, as no club allowed more chances from free-kicks and corners (176) or had a worse xGC from dead-ball situations (20.0).
Leicester had rotten luck with injuries last season, with not one of what could feasibly be described as their first-choice back four – Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin and Wesley Fofana (all £4.5m) – starting more than 16 league games.
Midfield shield Wilfried Ndidi (£5.0m) didn’t fare much better, only making the starting XI on 18 occasions.
Not once was Rodgers able to name those five players in the same team in 2021/22.
The Castagne-Fofana-Evans-Justin back four was in place on just three occasions last season, all of them without Ndidi, with Leicester conceding exactly one goal in each fixture.
OPENING FIXTURES
The opening fixtures aren’t great, with four ‘big six’ sides to come in the first eight Gameweeks.
That sees the Foxes rank a lowly 17th on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty.
A Brentford side missing arguably both their first-choice centre-halves and a Southampton outfit that the Foxes scored six goals against last season could be favourable opponents in Gameweeks 1 and 3, however.
The time to pounce would seem to be Gameweeks 9-16, the start of which is immediately after the September international break.
Rodgers’ side rise to second in our Season Ticker for that string of games, with two newly promoted sides and Leeds, Wolves and Everton among the opponents to come.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
Pereira’s injury should make the back four easy to predict, if it is indeed a back four: Justin could alternatively play as a third centre-half, with Luke Thomas (£4.5m) or Marc Albrighton (£5.0m) fielded at wing-back.
Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) was traditionally a secure starter for the Foxes but with the Belgian supposedly wanting to depart the club, he’s not been all that prominent in the pre-season line-ups.
I’m having the exact same debate with myself. Neto seems perfect for the counter attack against Leeds, but I think Aaronson could also do damage in that game and I prefer his fixtures over the first 8gws to take me to my WC.
The projections in the new members area are different to the projections in the old members area. I'm assuming the new members area is the most up to date one.
I keep going back and forth between Neto+Patterson with Neto starting and Doherty+Andreas with Doherty starting. Have Perisic already but that TOT double up could be unreal if they actually start together, I just don’t know how confident I am about Doherty at the moment. Sounded like Conte sees those two as the preferred backs. What do you think?
Pickford, Ward TAA, Walker, Digne, Saliba, Neco Salah, Martinelli, Neto, Bailey, Andreas Kane, Haaland, Jesus
Pros: 3 Premiums - avoids the Haaland/Kane dilemma Arsenal and Villa have good early fixtures Assuming Walker plays almost as good as Cancelo and 2.0 cheaper Bench players should hopefully play to provide cover.
Cons: Too many cheap risks? Should I ditch one of Kane/Haaland and strengthen elsewhere?
An early WC isn’t necessarily a bad thing - jump on bandwagons, improves TV, and hopefully help you to push on, but definitely try to void using it in GW2.
I'm looking at trying to built a team for the first 6 to 7 gameweeks and then deploy the WC. If I can hold out till GW8 and the international break that would be ideal.
no chance - he didn't sign a contract (allegedly) as wasn't guaranteed minutes, can't see that improving if its someone elses player you are developing
Too many eggs in one basket for me. I prefer to start with Martinelli and Jesus and another 8m mid (currently Kulu) then switch to Saka if he is hauling.
Actually what happens much more often is the 6 mil mids become 8 mil the next year, there aren't any 10 mil mids this year that were 8 mil the year before
Plus that week 2 fixture is pretty poor (For sterling and why i like the bowen move ) and I think Walker will be a trap - i expect him not to start week 1 as Pep will counter West ham set piece threat in week 1
I can see : Stones Ake Dias Cancelo back 4 at weekend with Cancelo marking Bowen on the counter
Sanchez (Steele) Robbo Trent Cancelo Perisic (Williams) Mo Kulu Bailey Martinelli (Andreas) Haaland Jesus (Atcher)
Thinking is i don't want to waste a transfer on Kane to Haaland in GW2 and hoping Kulu and Perisic can cover some Spurs points. Sanchez and Perisic could be a 5m keeper (Pope, Ramsdale) and Trippier / Cash / Gabriel / Walker / other 5m mid.
The whole Kane/Haaland is a bit silly. Surely start with Kane hea got Southampton at home. Gameweek 2 just switch him out for Haaland if he didn't do that well. Yes saving transfers is good but Southampton and Bournemouth scream hauls
I see your point but transfers at the start are important and you don't know what other issues you will have come GW2. I'm currently on Haaland and Kulu but could be Kane and a city mid but who is the bigger issue.
