Leicester hit over 60 goals for the third season in a row under Brendan Rodgers, despite the UEFA Europa League/Conference League sideshow and myriad injury issues.
The underlying stats aren’t as impressive, with the Foxes ranked 15th for both goal attempts and shots in the box.
While the overall shot count was way down on those of many other teams, Leicester did carve out quality opportunities with the attacks they had.
Rodgers’ troops were fourth in the Premier League for big chances per shot (16.78%).
Despite the respectable rate of big chances, Leicester still had to spectacularly ‘overachieve’ on the expected goals (xG, above) front to hit the 60-goal mark.
No club came close to matching their whopping xG delta of +9.15.
But if you think that’s unsustainable, the gap between xG and actual goals was even more extreme (+11.86) in 2020/21.
Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) were a massive part of last season’s overachievement: one’s a clinical finisher from close range, the other possesses a dead eye from distance.
Vardy and Maddison’s combined xG deltas were +7.92, accounting for a big chunk of the overall Foxes figure.
LAST SEASON: DEFENCE
Total
Rank v other Premier League clubs*
Goals conceded
59
14th
Clean sheets
7
17th
Shots conceded
565
17th
Shots in the box conceded
392
=18th
Shots on target conceded
192
18th
Big chances conceded
88
16th
Expected goals conceded (xGC)
70.77
17th
Far less impressive were Leicester’s defensive numbers, which are more relegation candidate material than top-eight challenger.
Ranked in the bottom four for the concession of shots, efforts on target, attempts in the box and expected goals (xGC), they were also 17th for clean sheets with a miserable seven.
It could even have been worse: Opta’s xGC data estimated that the Foxes should have shipped over 70 goals, rather than the 59 that actually flew in.
Set plays were a real Achilles heel, as no club allowed more chances from free-kicks and corners (176) or had a worse xGC from dead-ball situations (20.0).
Leicester had rotten luck with injuries last season, with not one of what could feasibly be described as their first-choice back four – Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin and Wesley Fofana (all £4.5m) – starting more than 16 league games.
Midfield shield Wilfried Ndidi (£5.0m) didn’t fare much better, only making the starting XI on 18 occasions.
Not once was Rodgers able to name those five players in the same team in 2021/22.
The Castagne-Fofana-Evans-Justin back four was in place on just three occasions last season, all of them without Ndidi, with Leicester conceding exactly one goal in each fixture.
OPENING FIXTURES
The opening fixtures aren’t great, with four ‘big six’ sides to come in the first eight Gameweeks.
That sees the Foxes rank a lowly 17th on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty.
A Brentford side missing arguably both their first-choice centre-halves and a Southampton outfit that the Foxes scored six goals against last season could be favourable opponents in Gameweeks 1 and 3, however.
The time to pounce would seem to be Gameweeks 9-16, the start of which is immediately after the September international break.
Rodgers’ side rise to second in our Season Ticker for that string of games, with two newly promoted sides and Leeds, Wolves and Everton among the opponents to come.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
Pereira’s injury should make the back four easy to predict, if it is indeed a back four: Justin could alternatively play as a third centre-half, with Luke Thomas (£4.5m) or Marc Albrighton (£5.0m) fielded at wing-back.
Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) was traditionally a secure starter for the Foxes but with the Belgian supposedly wanting to depart the club, he’s not been all that prominent in the pre-season line-ups.
Which is better to Start with A 4-3-3 Sanchez or Raya TAA, Cancelo, Saliba, Botman Salah, Bailey, Martinelli Kane, Jesus, Haaland 4.0 (Neco Andreas Colback)
B 4-4-2 Ramsdale TAA, Robbo, Cancelo , Tripper Salah, Bailey, Martinelli , Mount Kane, Jesus Ward (Neco Andreas Archer
What are people's thoughts on this? Is it important for team structure to have an 8m midfielder or at least be in a position where you can get one in one transfer in case one of them starts the season on fire?
For me it's deciding between Robertson and Diaz. If I go Robertson it will mean more funds are in defence and it will be difficult to get a 8m midfielder in one move.
Raya, Forster TAA, Cancelo, Perisic, Dunk, Neco Salah, Saka, L. Diaz, Bailey, KDH Kane, Jesus, Greenwood
Allows for fluidity between 442 and 352 rotating Dunk, Bailey and KDH. No Citeh attack but I'm fine to be convinced by Haaland rather than hope he hits the ground running. I think a Kane demolition of the Saints at home is more on the cards than Haaland running rampant at West Ham.
The whole thing will likely burn to the ground by GW 3 anyway so whatever.
well nothing can beat ur genious logic... but u can take into consideration the playing style of both team as southhampton play a high defensive line and alow more counter atacks and in 21/22 sothhampton´s big chances conceded was almost double of that which westham conceded.
Maybe Southampton are slightly weaker defensively than West Ham, but I don't think there is huge amounts in it.
Saints switched to a back a back 5 in pre season with a focus on being more defensive.
“The stability in defence is definitely there,” Hasenhuttl told The Athletic following his side’s successive goalless draw against Watford. “You are not so exposed to giving a lot of chances away. We didn’t have a lot of chances against us when we were in the back four, but it (having three centre-backs) is sometimes a little bit more disciplined and a little bit more controlled.
“But then you miss one player up front and that makes it a bit harder to create chances, especially after ball wins.”
Saints have made defensive signings. West Ham spent big on a CB who is now injured.
City are a better attacking side than Spurs.
It's a close call and either could score more but not worth booking a transfer in GW1 I don't believe
Neto has good fixtures first 6 so I would keep him.
Bailey possibly rotate with N,Williams or Patterson for a game or two if he is that bad. Or transfer to KDH or Almiron. But tbh for 5m it's not a big deal anyway, not expecting the world.
Can't wait for this to happen. Bailey will likely be dropped and wolves don't score enough goals. Cheapest mid I have is L Diaz. Always easier to downgrade
Chelsea don't look as strong this season but he should score okay, been getting better and better returns season after season and he hasn't played every game
Debating between him or Saka that would allow me to get Martinelli over Perisic
He is a good pick mate. One of Chelsea’s main/best attackers, with good fixtures and is pretty highly owned. I would go him over Saka as you say Martinelli can give you that Arsenal attacking coverage.
I think for the last 3 pre-seasons he’s been linked with a move away. He’s played previously in a double pivot, but always seems to perform. Admit a poor man’s KDB and has its risks.
