Our regular frisk of the fixtures sees us assess the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) clubs and players with – in theory – the strongest and weakest runs of matches over the next six Gameweeks.
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OVERVIEW
BEST FIXTURES
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Based purely on upcoming opponents, Steve Cooper’s outfit have a strong fixture run. Although they rank bottom of all teams for attempts conceded (79) and expected goals conceded (7.91), they’ve had a tough opening run of fixtures and consecutive meetings with Bournemouth (H), Leeds United (a) and Fulham (H) gives them the chance to pit their wits against sides likelier to be around them in the table as the season progresses.
An out-of-sorts Leicester City and Aston Villa then follow after the international break, although those fixtures are a month away and it remains to be seen what shape those two underachievers are in by then – and whether the current head coaches are still at their respective clubs.
An eye-watering number of signings have arrived at the City Ground, so there seem to be a few secure starters for FPL managers to consider.
Dean Henderson (£4.6m) entered Gameweek 5 as the game’s top-scoring goalkeeper thanks to a clean sheet and two penalty saves. Bargain enabler Neco Williams (£4.1m) is an attacking wing-back that leads the way amongst defenders for goal attempts (11) and is in almost 28% of squads.
Brennan Johnson (£5.9m) is probably the cheapest FPL forward with any significant appeal, in case managers want a third striker during this period of congested fixtures. Penalties are also thought to be in his locker, although even he has plenty of competition up top.
BOURNEMOUTH
Another newly-promoted team that ranks joint-last for conceding shots on target (27) is the now managerless Bournemouth.
Days after the devastating 9-0 loss at Liverpool, where Scott Parker said he “can see some more” coming over the season, it was announced that the club had parted ways with the former England international.
So their good-looking run of fixtures could alternatively be seen as six teams whose assets we want by the time they face the Cherries.
There are also now uncertainties over how a different head coach would set up the team but if the incoming boss can get a tune out of his new charges, there are some potential bargains to be had for FPL benches everywhere.
There are two starting forwards cheaper than Johnson in Kieffer Moore (£5.5m) and Dominic Solanke (£5.8m), for instance, the latter of whom is also on spot-kicks.
Additionally, £4.9m midfielder Marcus Tavernier is on corners and free-kicks.
The sensible advice in Fantasy terms would be to see how the newly appointed manager approaches things tactically from now until the international break, as the Cherries’ good fixture run continues from Gameweeks 9-16.
LEICESTER CITY
Bottom of the league table are Leicester, who have let leads slip away during both home games so far. They entered Gameweek 5 having had the third-fewest goal attempts but Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, the two sides below them, can at least say they’ve both already had to visit Liverpool and Manchester City.
Despite this, James Maddison (£7.9m) was initially a good pick with goal involvements in all of the first three matches. He missed Saturday’s trip to Chelsea because of a “twinge” and could do the same on Thursday night.
Goalkeeper Danny Ward (£4.0m) is their most-owned asset by far on 27 per cent, although he has only returned a point each time. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.0m) is possibly the best midfield option at his price but an exciting differential could well be Harvey Barnes (£6.9m).
His last three campaigns have averaged 16 goal involvements despite never reaching 2,100 minutes and he then netted three times in pre-season, opening his account for 2022/23 at Chelsea in Gameweek 4.
A bit like Bournemouth, it’d probably be advisable to see how the Foxes fare from Gameweeks 6-8 without the distraction of the transfer window and then pounce over the international break if things are looking up. Trips to Brighton and Spurs before then, indeed, are no easy tasks.
Beyond that, Leicester face only one of last season’s top six – Manchester City – from Gameweeks 9-16.
BRENTFORD
The likes of David Raya (£4.5m) and Ivan Toney (£7.2m) continue their promising streak of fixtures up to Gameweek 9 at the very least, although their most recent outings have brought just two points from Fulham (a), Everton (H) and Crystal Palace (a).
Toney has a pair of goals and assists to his name, with cheap midfielders Mathias Jensen (£5.1m), Josh Dasilva (£4.6m), Vitaly Janelt (£5.5m) and Yoane Wissa (£5.4m) all providing at least two attacking returns.
The complication with a number of the names in the above paragraph is competition for places: Dasilva and Wissa were both benched on Tuesday, for example, while the likes of Mikkel Damsgaard (£5.4m) and Keane Lewis-Potter (£5.3m) will likely only player bigger and bigger parts as the season progresses.
Toney is at least rotation-proof: he was the only first-team FPL forward not to get substituted once in 2021/22 and he’s again completed every minute in this season so far.
ALSO CONSIDER
At the time of writing and ahead of the Liverpool trip, Newcastle United remain undefeated and have built upon their brilliant second half to last season.
The fixtures are about to get a whole lot easier, too.
Kieran Trippier (£5.1m), who is already on 26 per cent ownership, is a stand-out target from Gameweek 6, with various attacking options in Alexander Isak (£7.0m) and Miguel Almiron (£5.0m) also on the watchlist.
Meanwhile, West Ham’s squad were able to handle European commitments and finish seventh last time, although a high number of summer signings makes it hard to find reliable starters beyond the out-of-form Jarrod Bowen (£8.2m).
The Hammers won’t be targets for many managers in Gameweek 6 but the fixtures are much better after that point.
Tuesday night’s Rodrigo (£6.5m) injury devastated the two million managers that have purchased him since Gameweek 3. Those wanting alternative Leeds coverage may be interested in Brenden Aaronson (£5.5m) or Jack Harrison (£6.1m), the latter of whom is currently joint-third for chances created among midfielders in 2022/23 so far.
WORST FIXTURES
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Gameweek 1’s then-£5.5m midfielder of choice Pedro Neto is yet to return more than appearance points and has already dropped to £5.2m. With new names Sasa Kalajdzic and Goncalo Guedes (£6.0m) arriving at Molineux with strong reputations and Daniel Podence (£5.5m) pushing for a recall, Neto could even find his place in jeopardy in the medium term.
At the back, Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.4m) was the best defender for expected goals (xG) and fourth-best for expected assists (xA) during the first three matches – then he was benched against Newcastle.
Not that many will consider a Wolves defender now with Liverpool (a), Man City (H) and Chelsea (a) on the horizon, and the home fixture against Southampton in Gameweek 6 will likely be the last hurrah for owners of Neto et al.
EVERTON
The Toffees are still without a win but Anthony Gordon (£5.5m) has netted twice in as many matches. During the first four Gameweeks, he ranked ahead of Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) and Gabriel Jesus (£8.2m) for goal attempts, sitting joint-fourth with Harry Kane (£11.4m).
It’ll be interesting to see how new forward Neal Maupay (£6.2m) fits in and affects those around him, while cheap defender Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) has played all 450 minutes so far.
However, now doesn’t seem the time to revisit Gordon’s budget appeal: Everton have five of last season’s top seven clubs to come between Gameweeks 6-11.
LIVERPOOL
Over in the red half of Merseyside, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) did what he did best in Gameweek 4 by scoring 17 points against Bournemouth, just as the murmurs of discontent had started. He’ll perhaps be a ‘hold’ for many from Gameweek 8 onwards but is the usually fixture-proof Salah ditchable for the fixtures from that point, with plenty of premium assets competing for our attention?
Competition up top is going to get a bit more fierce now that Darwin Nunez‘s (£8.9m) suspension is over, while Diogo Jota (£8.9m) “can train from Thursday” according to Jurgen Klopp. There’s more analysis to be done over how Darwin affects Salah’s game, too, with the early indications being that the Uruguayan will see more chances than his new teammate.
ASTON VILLA
Off-form Aston Villa began the season with a defeat to Bournemouth, which looks worse with each passing week. It didn’t take long for Leon Bailey (£4.7m), Matty Cash (£4.8m) and Philippe Coutinho (£6.8m) to be ditched and an imminent hosting of Man City, which follows a trip to Arsenal, won’t bring much noise for these assets.
Chelsea are also on the horizon at the end of this six-Gameweek stretch.
The run from Gameweek 8-13 is actually not all that bad at all but there’ll have to be a vast improvement in on-field displays for many of us to venture anywhere near Villa players, while Steven Gerrard’s chopping and changing up front is another downside.
