It’s Wildcard week for countless Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers as we get set for Gameweek 13.
In a four-part series, we look at the stand-out FPL transfer targets for the four remaining Gameweeks before the World Cup break. So even if you’re not on a Wildcard, these are the names that you’ll be considering over the next month.
To do this, we’ll be turning to the underlying Opta player/team stats, the Season Ticker and Rate My Team’s projected points for assistance. All of these tools can be found by subscribers in our Premium Members Area, where you can still get a full year’s membership for £2.49 a month (billed annually).
These numbers are all correct as of Thursday afternoon, before the day’s Gameweek 12 fixtures have taken place.
SEASON TICKER
When ranking our customisable Season Ticker by attack, Crystal Palace, Everton and West Ham United sit ahead of Manchester City and Liverpool.
The Eagles face three of the six leakiest defences for chances conceded – Everton, Southampton and Nottingham Forest – whilst the Toffees are against three of the four sides to have let in at least 20 goals.
Meanwhile, West Ham have a trio of attractive home matches that surround a trip to Manchester United.
Blank Gameweek 12 caused pain for FPL managers with regards to Man City and Arsenal assets, with some of us having to either sell an asset or two from the title-challenging pair or proceed with an incomplete XI. The good news for ‘holders’ is that both sides have an excellent fixture run before the World Cup that follows Gameweek 16.
Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m) is owned by almost 25% of managers but they’ll need a plan for Fulham’s final two pre-break outings.
UNDERLYING TEAM STATS
| Team | Mins/xG – 2022/23 | Mins/xG – last six matches |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 43.7 (1st) | 43.0 (1st) |
| Arsenal | 49.6 (2nd) | 50.7 (3rd) |
| Liverpool | 53.6 (3rd) | 58.0 (5th) |
| Newcastle | 57.7 (4th) | 47.3 (2nd) |
| Brighton | 58.0 (5th) | 58.8 (6th) |
| Tottenham | 59.4 (6th) | 54.8 (4th) |
| Leeds | 67.0 (7th) | 72.7 (9th) |
| Man United | 67.3 (8th) | 65.8 (8th) |
| Brentford | 68.0 (9th) | 74.4 (10th) |
| West Ham | 69.8 (10th) | 59.6 (7th) |
| Chelsea | 76.3 (11th) | 85.0 (12th) |
| Fulham | 82.3 (12th) | 102.5 (15th) |
| Leicester | 84.7 (13th) | 77.4 (11th) |
| Aston Villa | 88.8 (14th) | 89.1 (13th) |
| Crystal Palace | 93.9 (15th) | 112.8 (19th) |
| Everton | 95.5 (16th) | 109.7 (17th) |
| Wolves | 97.3 (17th) | 109.6 (16th) |
| Nottm Forest | 99.2 (18th) | 90.1 (14th) |
| Southampton | 104.4 (19th) | 116.4 (20th) |
| Bournemouth | 153.0 (20th) | 112.1 (18th) |
Written before Aston Villa, Fulham, Leeds United and Leicester City conclude Gameweek 12, it’s no surprise to see that Man City and Arsenal have the best rates of expected goals (xG).
By combining this with their excellent starts to the season and the aforementioned strong fixtures, many managers will deem it essential to quickly get back to triple-ups of both sides. Erling Haaland (£12.1m) and Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) are already highly-owned, although the million or so who’ve recently sold the Brazilian could return if they can’t fit both Phil Foden (£8.3m) and Bukayo Saka (£7.9m) into midfield.
The teams whose xG rates have improved most over their last six matches are Bournemouth, Newcastle United and West Ham but, in fairness, their improved fixture runs have been a huge factor. Fulham and Crystal Palace are at the other end with a rate reduction.
What’s interesting about the Hammers is that their improvement precedes those imminent home clashes versus Bournemouth, Palace and Leeds. And which team is most underperforming, in relation to their season’s xG? Yep, West Ham (-6.05). Whether it’s profligacy or bad luck, they now at least have Gianluca Scamacca (£6.8m) to turn to, one of just two Hammers who is ‘overachieving’ their xG tally in 2022/23.
The biggest xG-to-goals overperformers, by some distance, are Man City (+11.26), although they still are number one in both separate categories. Arsenal (+4.59) and Spurs (+4.30) follow. That’s something we’ve come to expect and isn’t exactly rocket science: the better teams with the better players tend to convert more chances that come their way and exceed expectations.
UNDERLYING PLAYER STATS
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