Spot the Differential
2 January 2023 634 comments
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Double Gameweek 19 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Fulham, Chelsea and Leicester City, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

WILLIAN

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: lei + CHE | new | TOT | che | NFO

Willian (£5.5m) has been surprisingly impressive since joining Fulham on transfer deadline day.

The Brazilian doesn’t possess a great deal of pace nowadays, but his partnership with Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) is thriving, with the left-back’s advanced positioning allowing Willian to move inside, closer to goal.

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) is the Cottagers’ creator-in-chief – Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (54) than him (41) this season – but Willian is doing his best to keep pace. Indeed, his rate of 2.21 chances created per 90 minutes (p90) isn’t too far behind what Pereira has managed so far (2.64).

It’s also worth noting for a short period on Saturday, he had two assists in two games, before Pereira’s strike was later changed to an own goal. The passage of play stemmed from Willian’s corner, with his share of dead-ball duties another route to FPL points.

In terms of goal threat, he’s averaging an okay-ish 1.35 shots inside the box p90 and 0.37 big chances p90.

As for Fulham, they always play with an attacking mindset, which has seen them score 29 goals in 17 games so far this season, a very impressive return.

Now, they meet Leicester City and Chelsea in Double Gameweek 19, which is then followed by some tricky fixtures. However, the Cottagers have faced all of the current top six already and have scored against them all, which is encouraging.

Willian has been a key player for Fulham this season and is a nice alternative to the more popular Pereira and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.1m) picks.

RAHEEM STERLING

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £9.7m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: MCI + ful | CRY | liv | FUL | whu

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) hasn’t hit top form at Chelsea since his summer switch from Manchester City, scoring four goals and providing two assists in 14 league appearances.

However, the England winger supplied the assist for Kai Havertz’s (£7.8m) opener in Gameweek 17 and followed it up with a goal against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Sterling hasn’t been completely immune to Graham Potter’s tinkering so far but has started each of Chelsea’s two matches since the restart. In that time, he has created four chances for his team-mates, more than any other Blues player. Just two shots inside the box have been registered, although Sterling’s past history suggests he can offer plenty of goal threat.

Assessing Sterling’s form, Potter recently said…

“He’s come into a new team that have lost some key players over the summer, brought some new ones in during the transfer window and had a manager change. The team hasn’t functioned as well as I believe it can and Raheem, along with all the players, has suffered for that. It would be wrong for me to say that Raheem has been at the absolute top of his game but he’s not the only one. It’s my responsibility to help the team function better so that he can play better because he’s got the quality of a top player.” – Graham Potter on Raheem Sterling

Chelsea put their pre-World Cup blues behind them with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Suggestions they had turned a corner proved to be premature, however, as they labored to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground on Sunday.

Despite that, with games against Manchester City and Fulham in Double Gameweek 19, followed by an appealing Stamford Bridge meeting with Crystal Palace after, midfielder Sterling might just be worth investing in.

HARVEY BARNES

Barnes offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.8m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: FUL | nfo | BHA | avl | TOT

Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) often slips under the FPL radar, with team-mate James Maddison (£8.1m) taking the majority of the headlines.

However, the winger has been putting in some top performances in recent months, scoring five goals in his last 10 league appearances. In fact, from the start of his purple patch in Gameweek 9, he’s racked up 51 points, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Miguel Almiron (£5.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), plus Arsenal trio Martin Odegaard (£6.5m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.1m).

Overall this season, no Leicester City player has registered more shots inside the box (26) than Barnes, with his seven big chances, 67 penalty box touches and 218 passes received in the final third also team-leading tallies.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 18, Barnes needed to show a little more composure in the final third but did get into some promising positions. Encouragingly, he and his Leicester colleagues are now about to meet two of the three worst sides for minutes per xGC in 2022/23: Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt there is more to come from Barnes, who could prove to be a decent differential pick, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.6%.



634 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Harvey Barnes, huh? Interesting. Very interesting........

  2. WATERMELONS
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    BENCHING HEADACHE

    Morning all.
    If I bring in Mitrovic for Wilson I don’t know who the heck to bench. I am even considering KDB (!!)
    Which would you go for?
    Full team below.
    Bench:

    a) B Fernandes
    b) Darwin
    c) KDB
    d) Martnelli

    Kepa
    Shaw Trippier Doherty
    KDB Rashford(c) Fernandes Martinelli Andreas
    Haaland Darwin

    Subs: Ward WILSON White Beuno

    1. Tango74
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Save FT, ?

      1. WATERMELONS
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Def an option. I then have 2 FT to manage the Spurs/City DGW and move on the UTD assets.

        No Mitro is scary. But is it that scary? Hmm.

    2. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

      1. WATERMELONS
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I think you are right but it annoys me given I brought Fernandes in for these three fixtures. This is a peach one. But he isnt playing too well

        1. Tango74
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          I was thinking Wilson to havertz and now swaying to Mitrovic capt.

          Havertz has been poor and not on pens and potter may rotate !

    3. Wirtzle Gummidge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Love the captain choice, tempted to do the same myself.

      I'd bench Martinelli

    4. Here we go McGinn
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      KDB or Martinelli

  3. dshv
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What now?
    Have to do darwin to mitro(c) or can go for havertz instead ?

  4. Ha.
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kane > Havertz with FT?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Not sure, you’ll probably want Kane back for the DGW and longer term.

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Yep, will likely swap back next week (have 2FT this week)

    2. Tango74
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Will Havertz start ? Abu could

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        No eyed deer

  5. AC Yew
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all best move this week with my FT?

    Solanke to Mitro
    Almiron to Mount

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mitro

    2. yeahbuddy
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mitrovic

  6. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Sword or shield captaincy?

    A) Mitrovic (lei, CHE)
    B) Sterling (MCI, ful)

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. yeahbuddy
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

    3. DannyD
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      It's not sword or shield it's good or bad.

      Genuinely think Sterling is a bad captaincy choice. He's playing RWB for a lot of the game and is on no set pieces...

  7. FootballRookie
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Goalkeeper question..... Play Raya or Ward please

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Raya

    2. Ady87
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’m on Ward.

    3. yeahbuddy
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Raya

  8. Prinzhorn
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Rolling my FT this week. Not getting Mitro.

    Kepa
    Cancelo - Trippier - Shaw
    KDB - Saka - Andreas (C) - Rashford
    Haaland - Martial - Darwin

    Ward - Almiron - White - Patterson

    1. WATERMELONS
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I like the Andreas C shout given that you don’t have Mitro. I may do the same.

      But do we hand on heart think Andreas outscores Haaland or Rashford?

      1. Prinzhorn
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        It's between him and Haaland for me. Not sure yet.

  9. Tshelby
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hey all, could use some help on this lot. James needs to go but don’t know for who..

    1ft / 0.7 itb

    Kepa, ward
    Shaw, trippier, James*, bueno, Gabriel
    Salah, KdB, martinelli, Almiron, rashford
    Haaland, Greenwood, Mitro

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Roll the transfer and have 2 in 20 with the potential doubles imo

      1. Tshelby
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        So keep James? Sounds good

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          That's what I'm doing

  10. N00B
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hello guys! What is the best move for this gw?

    A) Save the transfer and play Patterson
    B) James > Digne, bench Patterson

    1. Tshelby
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Nice shout could be a good differential

  11. Wirtzle Gummidge
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Urgh, what a headache.

    Kepa*
    Cancelo // Trippier // Cuca*
    Rashford // Salah // Foden // Andreas*
    Martial // Haaland // Darwin

    Ward // Almiron // Shaw! // Paterson

    1ft and 0.7itb

    I don't want Shaw on the bench but who would I drop? Bench boost very tempting but then Paterson and Ward?

    1. WATERMELONS
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I think Shaw gets more points than Martial this week

  12. focaccia
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on this team? Have already done Wilson to Mitro so 0FT and £1.1itb…

    Kepa

    Cancelo / Shaw / Trippier

    Salah / Almiron / Andreas / Rashford

    Haaland / Mitro / Darwin

    (Ward / Foden / Patterson / Bueno)

  13. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone else considering Alvarez as their 3rd Man City for DGW20.

    1. 6.0m FWD
    2. Perfect to move on Mitovic or Havertz after their inevitable fail
    3. City vs Man Utd & Spurs doesn't scream CS's so defenders are out especially as it's a lottery
    4. Haaland won't play all 180mins, expect Alvarez to get at least 70mins? Even with Haaland on the pitch?
    5. World Cup winner with proven goals for City, and full of confidence.

    I'm going Haaland, KdB (big game player and already have 'im) and Alvarez.

    Decent?

    1. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      6. Midfield also a total lottery, I mean with anyone risk Foden or Cancelo now? If not then who else steps up as 3rd City DGW'er?

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        No one, just going with Haaland & KDB. Alvarez is well behind Mitro, Wilson, Darwin, Kane, Nketiah, etc for me

        1. Jafooli
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Even on a Man City DGW? Just a one week punt...

          1. The Mentaculus
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            It was going to be Foden but I moved too early & now I've shipped him back out again already 😕

            Don't fancy defence & the other options just dont compare all that well to non-City players

            1. The Mentaculus
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 1 month ago

              My 3rd City might be Haaland TC though

        2. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          This for me. 70 minutes of Alvarez (if that is what he gets) still unlikely to make him better option than an alternative playing 90.

    2. Free Hat
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Seeing its vs Utd and Spurs, I cant see past Haaland playing both 90minutes.

      So for me Foden has more chance for at least playing 90minutes and more then Alvarez imo.

  14. tim
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thats it. I am banking my FT. Dont want to loose Darwin over Mitro.

    Kepa
    Trippier Saliba Shaw
    KDB Salah Martinelli Almiron Rashford
    Darwin Haaland(C)

    1. FantasyClub
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I did Darwin to Mitro. I’m sick of HOPING Darwin can hit the target lol
      If he improves then he’s welcome back.

  15. Biggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Darwin to Mitro and Roll other FT. G2G?

    Kepa
    Gabriel, Trippier, Bueno
    KDB, Andreas, Rashford, Martinelli
    Kane, Haaland, Mitro (C)

    (Ward, Almiron, Botman, James)

  16. The Final Boss
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Why nobody going for Andreas cap or mitro? Guaranteed minutes around 170 minutes, on set pieces ,fairly attacking also..

    1. The Final Boss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      over mitro I should say..

      1. WATERMELONS
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I dont think he has a massive ceiling. I reckon 6 points per game max. Of course could be well off.

        Meanwhile Mitro can bag a brace in either game.

        Also the sgw players like haaland and rashford have a v high ceiling.

        Im on rashford right now but tempted by andreas

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Thinking about it. Less risk with the Mitro YC situation too

  17. jdogg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    James and iverson

    To

    Digne and kepa?

    For free.x

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yes from me. I did James > Digne this week.

      1. jdogg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers.x

  18. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone else tossing a coin on Mitovic & Havertz?

    Already have Kepa, Cucurella & Andreas? Who steps up for the FT on above options?

    1. Chris_White
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I'm genuinely shocked that people are bringing in offensive Chelsea assets this week. And I'm a Chelsea fan.

      Mitro is a much better option than Havertz even with the 4 YC's

      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Ha, cheers CW....that bad are they?

        I thought Potter was quite attacking. Main thing that puts me off is that Auba could share gametime with Havertz, where there is no one challenging Mitrovic (other than his own stupidly/5th YC)

  19. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Raya (Ward)
    Cancelo Gabriel Trippier (Neco Zouma)
    Saka Martinelli Rashford Andreas (Almiron)
    Haaland Kane Martial

    Got £4.5m ITB and a FT.

    Neco benched, Zouma flagged, Gabriel not keeping clean sheets, Kane average performances. Not sure where to start - what would you do this GW?

  20. Strchld
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Cucurella should be best Chelsea defender option, right? After Kepa.

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I don't think any are "good" but he's one of the most secure

  21. Lemonade
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Eriksen or Solly March as a long-term differential? (yes again) (:

  22. capoultra
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Ward
    Trippier Robertson Shaw
    De Bryne Rashford Andreas Almiron
    Darwin Haaland Mitro

    Pope Martinelli James Castagne

    1.6 itb, 2 free transfers

    Not sure where to go here. Any suggestions?

    1. capoultra
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Might go James -> White

    2. Here we go McGinn
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Robertson is injured. Would switch for Cancelo or Cucu. Also, KDB for Salah or Saka?

      1. capoultra
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks for input!

  23. You've got red on you.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Would you Bench Boost?:

    Ward (Fulham)
    Martinelli (Newcastle)
    Bueno (Villa)
    Patterson (Birm)

  24. BobB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Not convinced by Chel, Pool or MC defs, so gone for a Digne punt as James replacement

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Seen a few suggest him. Villa fixtures not bad and possibly turning a corner under Emery.

    2. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Im looking at Mings in for Patto at some point

  25. jonnybhoy
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench order GTG or any changes/transfers needed? BB or nah?

    Kepa
    Trippier Cancelo Shaw
    Salah Rashford Martinelli Andreas
    Mitrovic Haaland (C) Nunez

    Ward Almiron White Castagne

  26. Drumandbaines123
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    For those like me without any Fulham or Chelsea coverage, could this be a good week to free hit?

    - Can get in 6 DGWers from Chelsea and Fulham without hits
    - Don't really want these players long term
    - Key assets from Newcastle and Arsenal playing one another so good opportunity to bet against them eg. Martinelli/Almiron/Trippier/Saliba
    - Can bet against Cancelo who could easily be benched again

    Something like

    De Gea
    TAA Shaw Tete
    Sterling Mount Rashford Andreas
    Haaland Havertz Mitro

    1. BobB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Wait until weeks with many more DGWers to use free hit or BB

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      If your DGW are playing each other, less chance of big returns. Chelsea Fulham hardly seems like it's worth a whole chip to attack

      1. BobB
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        But you also spread your chances if they are playing each other

  27. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Chelsea 3 clean sheets in 18 and people are loading up for a GW that includes City and then Fulham who have scored in 16 of their 18.

    Enjoy the 4 pointers.

    1. Chris_White
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      2*

  28. Barphilona
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Even tho I don’t intend on (c) him, is it worth bringing in Mitro for Kane just so I don’t lose too much ground if he goes off on one? Or should I just save the transfer if I’m not fussed on handing him the armband?

    1. Barphilona
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Already got Andreas btw

  29. The Train Driver
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A bit risky C Mitro who's on 4 YC?

  30. HurriKane
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Son has failed to score in 14 out of 15 pl games for spurs this season.

    He scored 18 in last 23 pl games prior to start of this season

    Shocking downturn in form. What has gone wrong for the golden boot winner?

    1. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      That injury has hit his confidence. The way he threw the mask off said a lot