While our Scout Picks deal in a one-week-only window, our Watchlist series concentrates on the (more important!) medium-term outlook in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
In this feature, we look at the stand-out FPL and Draft options over a four-to-six-week lookahead.
We try to be less ‘kneejerk’ in these articles as a result, given that we’ve identified targets for a more sustained period.
And what muddied waters lie ahead, with a Blank and/or Double Gameweek in four of the next six rounds following Friday’s announcement about Double Gameweek 27.
MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST
Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.
Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.
We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but with few matches actually played over that time, we’ve extended it slightly back to the beginning of 2023.
The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS
Despite goalkeepers doubling all around him, Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m) climbs back to the top of the pecking order and may well remain there for much of the run-in.
He had only dropped down due to a recent ‘tough’ run of games (Manchester City, Liverpool and two encounters with a formerly free-scoring Fulham) but he’s a set-and-forget dream for the medium term, with seven of Chelsea’s next eight fixtures against sides in the bottom half.
Even better, Kepa – who averages more points per match (5.6) than any other regular starter between the sticks – plays for one of just seven clubs who definitely don’t blank in Gameweeks 25 and 28.
Sheer volume of fixtures – eight in the next six Gameweeks – is the driving force behind Aaron Ramsdale‘s (£4.9m) climb to second, even if he’s not in the shake-up of most FPL managers’ Arsenal triple-ups. Nevertheless, he’s a country mile ahead of other shot-stoppers for projected points in Gameweeks 23-28.
Doublers abound elsewhere but blanks in Gameweeks 25 and possibly 28 temper the appeal of David Raya (£4.7m) and Robert Sanchez (£4.6m), hence their ‘non-movers’ tags above.
Jordan Pickford (£4.4m) doesn’t have such an issue, with a ‘double’ now tagged onto two guaranteed-to-go-ahead fixtures in the upcoming Blank Gameweeks. High-scoring FPL goalkeepers followed Sean Dyche around at Burnley and the omens looked good in Gameweek 22, with Everton defeating the league leaders to nil. Trips to Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea aren’t ideal but seven fixtures in six Gameweeks, when some players will only play four times, is decent compensation.
A word on Fraser Forster (£3.9m), too, who looks the pick of the bargain-bin goalkeepers (not that there are many) for Gameweek 29 Wildcarders, as he should now get a run of games right the way through to the March international break.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS
Ben White (£4.7m) has been a mainstay of the Watchlist for some time, chiefly due to his ‘nailed’ starter status, a bit of assist potential from right-back, a cheap price tag and some of his team-mates teetering precariously on four bookings. But with his own form and ‘expected minutes’ dipping slightly, murmurs of a challenge for his spot and many of us not really needing to spare the funds in defence due to the underperforming premiums elsewhere, we’ve upgraded to 90-minute man Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.2m) for the foreseeable future. Comfortably top among all FPL defenders for expected goals (xG) this season (2.92), he’s also part of a backline with the second-best expected goals conceded (xGC) tally in the division.
Time was when sticking Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.2m) in the bronze-medal Watchlist position would have been sacrilege but now his elevation to third place will have readers questioning our sanity for different reasons. Liverpool have been, quite simply, abysmal from a defensive perspective this season. But with Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) nearing a return to fitness (not that he was in top form before his injury), Liverpool blessed with a Double Gameweek 25 and four of the five worst teams for xG to come before Gameweek 28, there’s some method behind the madness. It’s less about the clean-sheet potential (look at what Wolves did last Saturday) in all honesty and more about what Alexander-Arnold is creating at the other end, with seven big chances laid on for team-mates in as many games.
It’s fair to say that if there were a cluster of stand-out alternatives elsewhere then Alexander-Arnold wouldn’t be so high on our Watchlist but this is a real dry year for FPL defenders, with the ‘big at the back’ approach long dormant.
Be it reservations about security of starts (Nathan Ake (£5.1m)), fitness (Reece James (£5.7m)) or headache-inducing blanks (Pervis Estupinan (£4.6m)), Luke Shaw (£5.3m)), there are caveats all over the shop.
A few sub-£4.5m entries are worth noting for the budget-savers, with James Tarkowski (£4.2m), Max Kilman (£4.3m) and Rico Lewis (£3.9m) all enjoying one Double Gameweek apiece. Tarkowski, as is the case with Pickford, also has the advantage of a guaranteed fixture in Gameweek 28.
We’re leaving Alex Moreno (£4.5m) where he is for the time being as Aston Villa assets only really come to the fore in Gameweek 25, so by that time we may have more clue as to whether the rotation risk is going to be too much of a black mark against the attack-minded left-back and whether we’d be better off suited going with Tyrone Mings (£4.3m). Even when we’re not directly talking about him, Lucas Digne (£4.6m) finds new ways to troll us…
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS
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