Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 23, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Brighton and Hove Albion have claimed victory in just one of their last four Premier League matches, yet their attacking process remains sound.
In that period (Gameweek 21-24), they have created 9.36 xG but only found the net four times, with Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) particularly wasteful in front of goal.
However, the fact they are racking up in excess of 2 xG so often is hugely encouraging for those eyeing up their attacking assets.
BRIGHTON’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW24 (FUL) | GW23 (cry) | GW22 (BOU) | GW21 (lei) | GW20 (LIV) | GW19 (eve) | |
| xG | 2.22 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.14 | 1.94 | 2.17 |
Albion ‘double’ in Gameweek 27, along with Brentford, Crystal Palace and Southampton.
Attacking investment in the latter two probably isn’t necessary, depending on how much weight you put in these tables of course, but what about Brentford?
After their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace in Gameweek 24, Thomas Frank’s troops have gone 11 league games without defeat. No team in the division has lost fewer home games than Brentford in 2022/23, with Arsenal still the only visiting side to have triumphed at the Gtech Community Stadium.
That suggests now is the time to invest in Ivan Toney (£7.6m), with a home match against Fulham preceding Double Gameweek 27, which involves away trips to Everton and Southampton.
BRENTFORD’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW24 (CRY) | GW23 (ars) | GW22 (SOU) | GW21 (lee) | GW20 (BOU) | GW19 (LIV) | |
| xG | 0.89 | 2.01 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 1.40 | 1.77 |
Only West Ham United have underperformed their xG more emphatically across the season than Everton. Sean Dyche has made them more solid at the back but they still lack firepower: they had 15 shots/1.71 xG against Aston Villa without scoring.
Meanwhile, Newcastle United (three goals from 9.03 xG) and Chelsea (two goals from 7.69 xG) remain the two biggest xG underachievers in the last six matches and both need to become much more clinical in front of goal.
Finally, we’re not used to seeing Fulham quite this low down, but since the World Cup there has been a shift in approach. Marco Silva stated that he wanted the Cottagers to tighten up, which is understandable given how open they were earlier in the campaign. However, their improved performances at the back have impacted their attacking play in a big way.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
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