FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 29: GOALSCORER ODDS
Let’s begin with a skim through the anytime goalscorer odds, where I’ve combined the odds for those with a Double Gameweek 29 to give the likelihood of a player scoring at any point across their two games.
The odds always assume that a player starts and that is unlikely for Callum Wilson (£6.9m), who is only slightly behind Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) in the above graphic. As we know, Rashford withdrew from international duty for England and the latest is that he has returned to light training, in a small session away from the group with no ball work involved.
You’d expect this to improve throughout the week and, although perhaps it’s unlikely that he’ll play the full 90 of the first game, he’s a strong captaincy candidate. In this calendar year, only Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) has scored more FPL points but Rashford is just four behind whilst playing two fewer games.
Erling Haaland (£12.0m) is the only single Gameweek player among the top goalscorer odds, given a 52.5% chance of netting against Liverpool. He’s a real headache if you’ve got lots of players with a double and aren’t planning to use the Bench Boost chip, as a call has to be made on whether to start him. He also withdrew from international duty, which we hope to get clearer news on as the deadline approaches.
The cheap Evan Ferguson (£4.6m) deserves a mention, listed fourth on the goalscorer odds with a 52% chance, making him as good as enablers come. If you’re considering the youngster, just note that Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) could share minutes with him.
Elsewhere, Chelsea play two home games against Aston Villa and Liverpool, which is why Kai Havertz (£7.6m) and Joao Felix (£7.6m) are tied with a 50.5% chance of scoring. My favourite of the two is Havertz, given he’s on penalty duties, but the likes of Ollie Watkins (£7.5m) and Alexander Isak (£6.7m) are arguably better picks – with a 47.5% and 47% chance of scoring, respectively – as they both play in Gameweek 32. This is worth weighing up if you don’t plan to Free Hit that week.
Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) is the other player with a 47% chance and he has returns from four of his last six games, as well as a recent goal for Egypt. In 2023, he’s only brought in three fewer points than Haaland with one less game played, so there is a case to be made for going Salah over Haaland – particularly if you’re chasing rank or not opting for a Free Hit in Gameweek 32.
GAMEWEEK 29: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
The clean sheet odds are also combined for those that play twice, marked here with an asterisk. Brighton and Hove Albion have a 64% chance of keeping at least one, with Lewis Dunk (£4.7m) and Pervis Estupinan (£4.8m) the two standout options in defence and Jason Steele (£3.9m) being the man between the sticks since Gameweek 26.
Three clean sheets have been recorded over their last six matches, which is joint most, and their 192 minutes per big chance conceded is by far the league’s best over that run. Manchester City are next with 113 minutes.
West Ham United haven’t been talked up much as a result of being 18th in the league but they do have back-to-back home games in this double. Kurt Zouma (£4.4m) is the stand-out option, as no defender has won a higher percentage of aerial duals all season.
Meanwhile, Chelsea and Manchester United have a 55% and 53% chance. Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) and Luke Shaw (£5.2m) are their main defensive picks, although goalkeepers Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.7m) and David De Gea (£5.0m) are also excellent selections for this week and beyond, as more doubles will follow later in the season.
The good news for Sven Botman‘s (£4.5m) owners is that he’s back in training and Newcastle United have exactly a 50% chance of a clean sheet.
Interestingly, we finally saw Danny Ward (£4.0m) dropped for Leicester City right before the international break, allowing the even cheaper Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) to come in for the 1-1 draw at Brentford. Brendan Rodgers then seemed to suggest Iversen will get an extended run of games.
The Foxes have been given a 47% chance of a successful shutout either at Crystal Palace or at home to Aston Villa. Rock bottom this week are Southampton with 19%, followed by Everton with 23%.
GAMEWEEK 29: MOST TRANSFERS IN
Kaoru Mitoma (£5.5m) is the most transferred-in player so far with just over 200,000. There’s some unbelievable value in Brighton midfielders, although they will share the points and it’s hard to pick the best two. My favourites are Mitoma and Solly March (£5.1m), the latter being one of the bargains of the season. In fact, I imagine he’ll be in many Gameweek 1 drafts for next season, even if his price hikes up to £6.5m or so.
Isak is next, with a 13-pointer right before the international break and a promising Double Gameweek. Man United trio Rashford, Shaw and Bruno Fernandes (£9.6m) all have just over 100,000 purchases this week, with one major question being whether to sell an Arsenal midfielder for Fernandes.
In my eyes, this one depends on your chip strategy. Saka’s in breathtaking form and he doesn’t blank in Gameweek 32 when Bruno does. However, Martin Odegaard (£6.9m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) are slightly easier sells if you intend to Free Hit in Gameweek 32, gaining an extra fixture this week and better ones afterwards.
Haaland and Salah creep in as the ninth and tenth most-bought. As mentioned, there’s validity in proceeding with Salah over Haaland, although it takes a brave manager to go through with it.
GAMEWEEK 29: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron (£5.5m) is expected to be out for another four weeks and over half a million have said goodbye to him. If you’ve got the Paraguayan, moving him to a Brighton midfielder makes sense at the same price point.
We’ll know the latest on William Saliba (£5.2m) by Friday. He missed Gameweek 27 and the international break with a back injury but it didn’t look serious and there’s a chance he’ll return. Some may want to sell him anyway, considering the extra games of Shaw, Chilwell and Brighton defenders.
Harry Kane (£11.8m) has been a funny one this season. He is sat on 182 points – just 21 behind Haaland – but we’ve seen him pop up a few times as one of the most-sold assets when managers look to adjust their squads for a Double Gameweek. It’s happening again here but he could punish the sellers.
Finally, Ivan Toney (£7.9m) has been sold by 59,000 managers but, unless on a Wildcard, this double isn’t the time to drop him. Near the top of the goalscorer odds, there is of course a two-match ban if he picks up another yellow card, alongside a potential punishment given for the betting scandal. He’s on borrowed time in many of our teams but it’s a transfer that can wait.
