FPL notes: Steele + Raya’s returns, De Zerbi on “tired” players

We continue our analysis of the Gameweek 29 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) fixtures in our Scout Notes series.

The spotlight here is on the six-goal thriller at the Amex and Bournemouth’s victory over Fulham.

Any numbers you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.

• READ MORE: Take advantage of our free Premium Membership trial
• READ MORE: FPL notes: Haaland injury latest, Salah scores, Grealish stars
• READ MORE: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + statistics

UNLIKELY GOALKEEPER RETURNS

Jason Steele (£3.9m) and David Raya (£4.9m) somehow managed to salvage some decent points out of Saturday’s south-coast epic, despite each conceding three goals.

Steele claimed an assist when his long raking pass was finished by Kaoru Mitoma (£5.6m), while Raya racked up a remarkable 11 saves and was rewarded with bonus, as well as save, points for his efforts.

Perhaps we shouldn’t have been too surprised despite the freakish-sounding returns: Steele’s excellent distribution is precisely why Roberto De Zerbi favours him over Robert Sanchez (£4.6m), while Raya has registered more stops and save points than any other Premier League goalkeeper in 2022/23.

DE ZERBI ON ‘TIRED’ PLAYERS + FERGUSON’S INJURY

Brighton’s returning internationals all made light of their air miles by starting against Brentford, although budget FPL forward Evan Ferguson (£4.6m) missed out with an unspecified injury.

De Zerbi isn’t sure if he’ll be back for Brighton’s second Double Gameweek 29 fixture at Bournemouth.

“[Evan] Ferguson has an injury but I don’t know if he will be able to play on Tuesday. He is important but today [Danny] Welbeck was one of the best players on the pitch.” – Roberto De Zerbi

The Seagulls go again at the Vitality Stadium in less than 72 hours’ time and while there’s nothing we FPL managers can do about it now, De Zerbi did warn of tiredness affecting the players who were away with their countries over the last fortnight.

“[Deniz] Undav, [Julio] Enciso, and [Facundo] Buonanotte were only on for 10 minutes but they played well. Adam Webster will play on Tuesday and we have to decide the best first XI because the players who were with their national teams they can be tired.” – Roberto De Zerbi

It’s something Brighton will have to get to grips with, as three more Double Gameweeks are still to come between now and the end of May.

BRIGHTON’S REMARKABLE NUMBERS

Thirty-three shots, six big chances, 4.47 expected goals (xG), and every starting outfielder – even the four defenders – having at least two attempts on goal.

We’ve become used to seeing Brighton rack up some impressive attacking numbers in both the Graham Potter and De Zerbi eras but even by their standards, the figures that the Seagulls posted on Saturday (quoted above) were something else.

Albion are now behind only Manchester City and Arsenal for minutes per xG since De Zerbi took over, and indeed plain old goals scored (38 in 20 matches).

We’ve done the ‘MMM’ midfield comparisons to death in the last few months, and each of them played up to type against Brentford: the clinical Mitoma made the absolute most of what few chances came his way, Solly March (£5.2m) was the best player on the park and racked up the highest ‘expected’ numbers without fully capitalising on it, and Alexis Mac Allister (£5.5m) once again demonstrated why penalty-taking duties are a boon. Mac Allister’s 90th-minute goal ironically came after he had moved back to central midfield late in the game and his open-play threat had diminished.

BIG-GAME TONEY AVOIDS TENTH YELLOW

Ivan Toney’s (£7.9m) owners breathed a collective sigh of relief as he got through another game without a booking, meaning that – fitness permitting – he’s free to face Manchester United in the second of Brentford’s two Double Gameweek 29 fixtures.

He claimed maximum bonus points after this his 17th league goal of the season, 10 of which have been scored against top-half teams.

Above: Premier League players sorted by goals scored against top-half teams in 2022/23

That’s something to bear in mind for any Toney owners thinking that Brentford’s run-in looks a bit ropey (they are still to face every team from 2nd-6th), although whether the England international is even available for some of those fixtures is another question entirely.

The Bees’ set-piece prowess was again in evidence, as Pontus Jansson (£4.2m) and Ethan Pinnock (£4.4m) scored from dead-ball situations. Brentford have found the net on 20 occasions from penalties and set plays in 2022/23, more than any other side and making up over 40% of their total goals scored.

CHERRIES’ GOAL THREAT

Further along the south coast, Bournemouth ground out a valuable three points against Fulham.

Substitute Marcus Tavernier (£4.7m) and budget forward Dominic Solanke (£5.5m) – with his first goal since November – did the damage, and it was a deserved three points as the Cherries dominated their visitors: it was 5-0 to Gary O’Neil’s side on those Opta-defined big chances.

Bournemouth have been given a lift by some January signings and a clearing of their once-lengthy injury list, and have now scored in six of their last seven matches, breaching the defences of Manchester City, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Arsenal and Fulham in that time. They rank seventh for xG over this period, so it might be worth rethinking the notion that they’re pushovers for a clean sheet, even if their defence remains suspect.

Fulham meanwhile have some excellent fixtures and a Double Gameweek 34 ahead.

The loss of Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m) to suspension is potentially massive, though, depriving the Cottagers of a focal point in attack and a way of easing opposition pressure by retaining the ball up the pitch. Poor Carlos Vinicius (£5.4m) doesn’t look up to the task.

“The ball had to stick to Vinicius today to give Fulham a chance to progress up the pitch, and it never did. Vinicius was bullied by Jack Stephens and Marcos Senesi, and never looked like causing a threat. [His] link-up play was questionable alongside an absence of strength. The drop-off between him and Mitrovic is night and day (and then some).” – Fulhamish match report

While Fulham might be early shouts as the season’s first ‘on the beach’ candidates, Andreas Pereira (£4.3m) could still offer plenty of value in an admittedly competitive FPL midfield pool – not least because he is presumably on penalties in Mitrovic’s absence.

The cut-price FPL asset opened the scoring at the Vitality Stadium, registering his 13th attacking return of the season in the process.