Spot the Differential
13 April 2023 208 comments
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Gameweek 31 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JOACHIM ANDERSEN

FPL Gameweek 13 differentials: Fixtures boost case for Andersen
  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: sou | EVE | wol | WHU | tot

Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has been a reliable performer since arriving at Selhurst Park and could be a decent budget pick for the run-in.

That’s because Crystal Palace sit second on our Season Ticker for ‘defence’ when looking at the remaining fixtures, with seven of the eight matches against sides sitting 10th or below in the Premier League table.

Under Roy Hodgson, they have won both of their games but conceded on each occasion. However, they have allowed just 14 shots and only one Opta-defined ‘big chance’, offering encouragement that clean sheets can be obtained.

As for Andersen, attacking returns feel unlikely, but he has had four shots (including two headers) and created three chances against Leicester City and Leeds United, more than any defensive teammate. He has also played some good passes into Odsonne Edouard (£5.0m), triggering Palace counter-attacks.

The Eagles have some great fixtures coming up, starting with a trip to bottom-of-the-table Southampton, who rank 17th for headed attempts conceded since Ruben Selles’ appointment, so that aforementioned goal threat could be put to good use this weekend.

Palace’s recent performances suggest they are building up some momentum, so Andersen could be a nice set-and-forget option who can be called upon each week bar Gameweek 35.

JADON SANCHO

Leeds v Man Utd team news: Sancho starts, Shaw at centre-back
  • FPL ownership: 3.0%
  • Price: £7.1m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: nfo | – | tot | AVL + bha | whu

With Marcus Rashford (£7.2m) out for a “few games”, Jadon Sancho (£7.1m) is the likeliest candidate to start on the left flank, his preferred position.

The former Dortmund winger created five opportunities against Everton last time out and set up Scott McTominay’s (£4.9m) opener, adding to his goals in Gameweeks 22 and 24. It’s also worth noting among all FPL midfielders with meaningful minutes this term (500+), he sits seventh for chances created per 90.

Admittedly, he hasn’t set the world on fire at Old Trafford, but has looked sharper of late, and could be the one to step up in Rashford’s absence.

Man Utd have responded well to their 2-0 loss at Newcastle United in Gameweek 29, with wins over Brentford and Everton, two good performances with two clean sheets. Those victories have moved them three points clear of fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, with the influential Casemiro (£4.9m) set to return having served his suspension.

Now, they visit a Nottingham Forest side who are on a nine-match winless streak, a run that has seen them concede 19 goals, with their opponents easily able to exploit their narrow system. In an attempt to get back on track, they actually lined up in a back-three formation at Villa Park last time out, but remain on the slide after losing 2-0.

Sancho reminded FPL managers of his talents in Gameweek 30, and with more game-time over the next few weeks, could be a handy differential.

DEMARAI GRAY

Smith Rowe injury latest as Gray stars: FPL notes from Everton v Arsenal 2
  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £5.2m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: FUL | cry | NEW | lei | bha

Demarai Gray (£5.2m) remained on the periphery at Old Trafford last weekend but now faces out-of-form Fulham at Goodison Park in Gameweek 31.

The 26-year-old is Everton’s top scorer so far this season with six goals in all competitions and has predominately featured as a central striker under Sean Dyche.

In fact, since becoming a regular starter in Gameweek 26, Gray has registered more shots (nine) and created more chances (nine) than any teammate.

Everton have clearly taken strides forward in their first two months under Dyche, especially on home soil, where they have won 10 points in five games. Next up on Merseyside is a pivotal fixture against Fulham, who have lost five straight competitive matches. Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m) remains a big loss, but with 10 goals conceded in their last six games and an xGC ranking of 17th, bigger problems arguably lie at the other end of the pitch.

Youngster Ellis Simms (£4.5m) came in to partner Gray in a more attacking 4-4-2 formation last time out. However, if he’s spearheading Everton’s attack or cutting in from the left, you get the feeling he will be key to unlocking Fulham’s defence. As a result, Gray could be a nice differential punt for those wishing to free up some budget.

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208 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. RashFraud
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Sell
    A. Chilly
    B. Shaw

    Get
    1. TAA
    2. VVD
    3. Alex Moreno

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B1 if doable

    2. Snake Juice
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B1

  2. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Rashford > Martinelli
    Do it today
    Do it Saturday Morning

    1. DavvaMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Do you think he drops in price again tonight?

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Maybe not today

      2. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Despite 'only' on -91% on FPLStatistics, the triple red chevron and total sales indicate a good chance price will drop again tonight.

        1. OptimusBlack
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Cheers

          1. Sheffield Wednesday
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Stats have changed since my last post and the chance of a price drop has reduced.

  3. jack88
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    The player pool is very short. I can't find anyone to punt. Everyone is injured or in off form

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Try Gakpo?

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Or Mahrez

    2. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah I'm feeling this. Want to get rid of maddison for a longterm pick. Not convinced grealish is the way to go

  4. Why do I do this?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Need a GK for 31 and 33 (no restriction on budget or team)?

    FH32 and WC34 - any ideas?

    1. Dušan Citizen
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Johnstone

  5. Dušan Citizen
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Which one to do, guys?

    A. Maddison and Rashford to Salah and Eze for a hit, bench one of Mitoma or March

    B. Maddison/Rashford to Mahrez, no hits, play both Mitoma and March

  6. Branch Warren
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    A) Rashford to Eze/Olise for a punt
    Or
    B) Chilwell to Ake and keep carrying rashy on bench

    1. Dušan Citizen
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A as Ake might get rest here and there

      But you could do Chillwell to some other def such as Guehi

    2. The Mighty Hippo
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B, it sounds as though Rashford may be back a bit earlier than previously assumed.

      1. Dušan Citizen
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        How come? Any new reports?

  7. NoThomasNoPartey18
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Chilwell or James for the rest of the season? I have both

  8. Shark Team
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    What Rashford's price gonna be for his return in gw33 ?
    Idk if those on FH affect price changes

    1. agueroooooney
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      7.0 I'd say

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      6.0m

  9. agueroooooney
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Best Rashford replacement for next 2 GWs for 6.9 or less? (No FH, using WC in GW33)

    A) Olise
    B) Eze
    C) Other (who?)

    Already have triple Arsenal

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Seems a coin toss but I went A

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Olise

    3. sulldaddy
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Either is fine, ive added both actually. Dumped Maddison for Olise this week.
      But I think Eze may be better goal scorer

    4. waldo666
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

  10. DagheMunegu
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Guys what do you say ?

    A Salah -4
    B Bruno

    1. RICICLE
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Salah, least he plays further up I guess

    2. mrelpea
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

      1. mrelpea
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Easy

    3. Fellaini's Fro
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Bruno this week at home against NFO and get Salah after

    4. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

  11. Amans94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Considering Maddison to Grealish, Chilwell to TAA worth the extra -4?

    Raya (Kepa)
    Chilwell Trippier Estu (Botman, Shaw)
    Saka Maddison Mitoma March (Rashford)
    Haaland Kane Watkins

  12. Bezz82
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Help needed….

    I’m taking Maddison out but for who?

    1) Salah (I’ve no Liverpool)
    2) Son (I’ve no Spurs)

    I’m FH on 32 so Salah move looks the best for 34 but no Spurs next game week scares me haha.

    I’ve got Haarland - Toney - Watkins so can’t fit Kane in this week

    1. RICICLE
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      It’s Kane or nobody for me from Spurs, so I say Salah

    2. Snake Juice
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Salah

    3. sulldaddy
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Son isnt worth it

      So

      Salah

  13. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Looking ahead and assuming Rashford is back by 34 who goes to bring Salah in?

    A Rashford
    B Bruno F
    C March
    D Mitoma
    E Grealish

    1. Fellaini's Fro
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Assuming Rash fully fit I'd lose B

  14. The Big Fella
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Now need a replacement for Martinez. I am thinking a Palace defender - any suggestions?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      You might find article above of interest- Anderson suggested from Palace

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Not sure how much faith we can put in this article when Sancho is named in it

        1. The Big Fella
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Hahaha just written something similar in response

      2. The Big Fella
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        I know but they sometimes mention players in these articles that are not serious. Sancho for example? The thing is, I never watch Palace. I just know Hodgson is quite defensive and they have a nice run in. I am basically looking for people who have watched them to advise me.

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      For this week I quite like Porro and Perisic looking at the defensive statistics and heatmaps

  15. Flynny
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Hi...stuck on what to do here with 1ft and 1.3m....Will free hit 32

    Have read rashford may be back gw33 so not sure I want to move for grealish???

    0.1 off chilwell to taa. Feeling stuck and looking for thoughts....thanks

    Raya (kepa)
    Chilwell trippier botman (shaw estu)
    Bruno rash martinelli mitoma (march)
    Haaland kane watkins

    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Maybe March to Olise or take a punt on Joelinton?

  16. klopptimusprime
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Currently on a -4

    With Bruno playing deeper, should I

    a) take another -4 to do Bruno -> Salah
    b) do it for free next week

    Ederson
    Trippier - Chilwell - White
    Bruno - Martinelli - Mitoma - Andreas
    Haaland - Kane - Mbeumo

    Neto - Mee - Benrahma - Shaw+ 3.9m

  17. romperstomper
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Pre world cup, I funded Bruno to kdb by selling reece James for Wesley fofana. 1 day later he injured himself against Milan. Lesson learned I didn't make another transfer early again

    Until, I funded toney to haaland on Saturday (before the drop/rise respectfully) by doing chilwell to Martinez. Now Martinez is injured so I have to wonder What the what

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I'm OK with early transfers provided the target player has no fixture ahead of the deadline. This rules out players involved midweek in Europe and domestic cup matches and internationals.

    2. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      ive made my peace with missing price rises etc by waiting until friday or saturday, its so much better to have all the info

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        It's probably why my team has an extra £3M TV, but it doesn't mean there's much need for it this season.

  18. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Will u start pinnock or gabriel?

  19. DLLM
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Best replacement for lisandro? Budget 4.5

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Who? A defender?

    2. David Parkinson
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Botman or Burn.

  20. Ruinenlust
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Start Kepa or Steele?

    Start Chilwell or Estupinan?

    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Steele and Chillwell

  21. Carroll to the rescue
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on this team?

    Kepa Ward
    Trippier James Estipunan Henry Shaw
    Rashford Grealish March Mitoma Saka
    Haaland Watkins Kane

    3.0m ITB—leaning towards either switching Shaw for someone or Maddison to Palace/Pool?

    1. Carroll to the rescue
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      *March to Palace/Pool

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Why u sell March ?
        Maybe Rashford to Martinelli

    2. Steve Stiffler
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Team looks good, how many transfers do you have or would it be for ?

      And you mentioned Maddison but hes not in your first 11, have you made that transfer for Grealish or something?

  22. FusionFC
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Play Maddison @MCI, play Andreas @EVE, or take a -4 for Grealish or Mahrez vs LEI?

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      If FH 32 get Mahrez as a punt if not just play Andreas

    2. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      -4 for Grealish

  23. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    If you have Raya who to play
    A- Chilwell
    B- Henry
    C- Chilwell > Gabriel for -4

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Don't like taking hits for defenders when there are good alternatives in your team.

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        So B or A ?

    2. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

  24. Amartey Partey
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Drop one..

    A. Toney (wol)
    B. Bruno (nfo)
    C. March (che)

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. David Parkinson
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Probably Bruno, a pity though.

      1. Amartey Partey
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah 🙁

  25. Bggz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    New manager bounce against City?

  26. Steve Stiffler
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Dont really want to take a hit as my first 11 is not too bad for this week. Would you advise on any transfers for a -4?

    Kepa (Iversen)
    White Trippier Mee (Estupinan, Shaw)
    Saka Martinelli Grealish Mitoma (Rashford)
    Kane(VC) Haaland(C) Watkins

    1. waldo666
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I don't think there's anything there worth a hit.

      1. Steve Stiffler
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers mate think thats the go

    2. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Estupinan is a pretty decent option to have first on bench. No need for a hit this week, though without knowing money itb how are we expected to know what transfers are on the table.

      1. Steve Stiffler
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah hes first on my bench after Shaw encase he may play ill wait for pressers. Cheers, and I've got 3.6itb

        1. Steve Stiffler
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          second** on my bench

  27. waldo666
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    1 FT and 0.1 ITB.

    Was looking at Rashy to Olise but now considering shifting Mac Allister instead or even saving FT to give me two next week. Appreciate any thoughts here.

    Kepa
    Trippier Gabriel Shaw*
    Mitoma Salah Rashford* Saka
    Toney Haaland Felix

    (Raya Mac Allister Estupinan Castagne)

    A) Rashy to Olisie
    B) Mac Allister to Olise
    C) Save FT
    D) Something else

    1. David Parkinson
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Felix to Watkins is the move. Start Mac & Raya, Pervis covers Shaw, job done.

      1. waldo666
        • 15 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Food for thought mate, cheers.

  28. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Raya
    Trippier Chilwell Ake Henry
    Bruno MacAl March
    Haaland Watkins Kane
    Kepa Maddy Estu Rashford*

    A) Maddison to Grealish
    B) Maddison to Martinelli
    C) Maddison + Chilwell to Martinelli + TAA (-4)

    Thanks

  29. Sharkytect
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Jason sancho....that IS a very interesting suggestion...

    Looking back at his season history, does anyone know why he went so long not being picked this season? Was he injured?

    1. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      *jadon