Our top team of Pro Pundits and Hall of Famers write about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) throughout the season.
Only Premium Members are able to read every single one of these pieces, so sign up today to get full access not just to the editorial content but all of the other benefits, from hundreds of Opta stats to a transfer planner.
Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser looks at this week’s Free Hit options.
It is Free Hit season (for many) and, as always, there is only one place for me to start when I’m talking about this chip. The general predictability of FPL events is not very high so when you’re considering a period of just one match, that unpredictability goes even higher.
We had a great chat about it on our podcast and one of the best examples cited by our guest Alon from FML FPL was that everyone on a Gameweek 31 Free Hit would probably have backed Harry Kane (£11.7m) at home to Bournemouth. Scoring would be as sure a thing as they come but he blanked despite Tottenham Hotspur scoring twice.
I just wanted to hone in on the fact that a one-week event is fairly random so, outside of the Liverpool and Arsenal picks that are fairly obvious, there isn’t a huge difference in perceived quality between the others. Once you absorb enough information, back your own judgement of how you expect certain games to go. In a week like this, take the path of least regret and back your own instinct.
READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 32 live team news: Thursday’s updates
ALL-IN ON LIVERPOOL
One of the biggest dilemmas for Free Hit managers revolves around their third Liverpool spot. Everyone is likely on Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) and rightly so.
Nottingham Forest are one of the poorest travellers in the league, with only Bournemouth conceding more often on the road. Even watching them against Manchester United last weekend, I felt like a few more goals could easily have been conceded.
Which is why, despite the slight expected minutes (xMins) threat of a second Liverpool attacker, I personally feel like rolling the dice and chancing on one in hope of catching a big haul because, by putting yourself in a position to get lucky, this punt has a chance of spiking two or three returns.
If I was to predict which team is likely to score the most amount of goals this weekend, I’d put my money on Liverpool. Now where you go with that third Liverpool spot is very subjective and it comes down to what narrative you want to believe.
The security of Andrew Robertson (£6.8m) and the lack of good options in other defences is why people are going there but I can’t help but feel that Liverpool are capable of conceding a couple of good chances to their opposition in every game. I just think picking another attacker is a good roll of the dice.
A REACTION FROM ARSENAL
It is the same with Arsenal who are probably the most reliable team for a clean sheet this weekend but it is very difficult to not triple-up on their attack, as we anticipate a reaction from them against Southampton – especially if they go 2-0 up again.
It eventually comes down to your decision of where are you happy to punt – in attack or defence? On paper, if you think about it, there are better punts in attack from the middling teams which then allows you to go for a Ben White (£5.0m) or a Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.3m) but I still am very tempted to go with three Arsenal attackers in my Free Hit team.
A good example of the debate most FPL managers are facing will be:
a) White, plus either James Maddison (£8.1m) or Eberechi Eze (£5.5m)
b) Bukayo Saka (£8.6m), plus either Timothy Castagne (£4.3m) or Tyrick Mitchell (£4.4m)
I will say that I feel more secure about Arsenal’s defence than I do with Liverpool’s, although the Gunners’ attackers do also offer a higher security of minutes.
OTHER FREE HIT NAMES
As for myself, I am playing a chasing game in FPL, sitting at 180k. Rolling the captaincy dice on anyone but Salah makes me very uncomfortable. Even if your armband goes elsewhere, please don’t go without the Egyptian in your team because it is just a risk too far for what is Liverpool’s best home game of the season.
For the outside punts, I still haven’t made up my mind but there are some names that I am flirting with. I am still interested in Leicester City but really hope Dean Smith mentions something about Kelechi Iheanacho (£5.9m) in his press conference. The difference between their attacking efficiency when he does and doesn’t play is significant.
The fact that Youri Tielemans (£6.1m) is fit again also has me interested in both Iheanacho and Maddison against Wolves, especially since it is Smith’s first home game. If we presume that they might continue with a three-man defence, their very attacking wing-backs could also be interesting.
Even someone like Harry Souttar (£4.5m) has got the potential to fluke a set-piece goal. He’s averaging almost one attempt per game at the moment.
Additionally, I’m strongly considering Crystal Palace assets, especially as this ‘sexier’ version of Everton under Sean Dyche sees the Toffees have an incredibly porous defence.
Another punt I want to talk about is Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m). He has real goal-scoring pedigree after bagging 29 returns last season and, for all the good that Bournemouth have done of late, they aren’t exactly a tight-knit defence.
By his own and his manager’s admittance, Bowen feels in a better place and I think a match where Bournemouth want to be on the front foot might suit West Ham United’s counter-attacking style.
“Jarrod in recent weeks has been the one providing assists for us. He made the goal last week against Fulham and he made the one in midweek at Gent too. He seems to be the one who’s making chances, what we’ve missed a bit is his goals, but today he gets on the end of one and finishes it, which is great.
“It’s what he wants to do and hopefully, if he can add another half-dozen goals between now and the end of the season, it would be great.” – David Moyes on Jarrod Bowen
“Since the World Cup, I feel I’ve been back to my best. People might say it’s not my best because I’m not scoring goals but my general play and assists have been there and I’ve always said goals will come, as long as I’m doing my bit for the team, whether that be sprinting and not letting the ball go in or slide tackling someone to block a shot, assisting or scoring, I’ll always do what I can for the team.
“I wasn’t happy with my performances before the World Cup when there was a lot riding on them, and now I feel free again. It’s about how I deal with those situations differently and I feel good since we’ve been back and today, to get the goal, I was over the moon.” – Jarrod Bowen
MY TEAM
I still haven’t made finalised my Free Hit line-up but, at this stage, Salah, Alexander-Arnold, another Liverpool attacker, Ollie Watkins (£7.7m) and three Arsenal assets seem like a lock.
I am also fairly comfortable playing Kieran Trippier (£6.2m) because I do fancy Newcastle United in that home meeting with Spurs, which is why I’ll be giving Kane a miss.
With regards to Arsenal, it’s worth noting that they have the first game on Friday so we might expect some early team news. If, for example, someone like Leandro Trossard (£6.7m) starts, you need to have a back-up plan in mind.
That is all from my side this week, I hope you enjoyed this article. We did a monster 90-minute podcast on The FPL Wire this week and it was great just talking football and match-ups instead of ‘planning’. You can view the episode below:
