Spot the Differential
19 May 2023 511 comments
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Gameweek 37 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is nearing, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brighton and Hove Albion, Manchester United and Leeds United, who we think have the potential to finish the season strongly.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

EVAN FERGUSON

FPL Gameweek 37 differentials: Ferguson, Antony + Rodrigo 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: SOU + MCI | avl

The fit-again Even Ferguson (£4.6m) could be an excellent punt in Double Gameweek 37, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.4%.

That’s because he was benched for the midweek trip to St James’ Park, meaning his chances of a start against Championship-bound Southampton on Sunday have since gone up a notch.

The Irishman has scored four goals in 16 first-team Premier League appearances so far this season, although it’s worth noting he has come off the bench in eight of those matches. In that time, he’s averaging 3.14 shots and 0.82 big chances per 90 minutes.

Brighton go into their second consecutive Double Gameweek with home matches against Saints and a potentially rotated Manchester City side, who could rest key individuals if the title is already sewn up.

Ruben Selles’ troops, meanwhile, haven’t kept a clean sheet since Gameweek 27, conceding two or more goals in eight of their 10 games since. They have also struggled defending balls into the box all season, which bodes well for Ferguson, who is often the focal point of Brighton’s attack.

The Seagulls have been a bit up and down recently, but they guarantee goals, with 15 scored and 12 conceded in their last six matches. It suggests we might see another high-scoring affair at the Amex on Sunday, with Ferguson one of the best-placed options to capitalise if he starts.

ANTONY

  • FPL ownership: 3.7%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: bou + CHE | FUL

Antony (£7.3m) has often been criticised during his debut season at Man Utd, having registered just six attacking returns in 23 Premier League appearances since his summer move from Ajax.

However, he has shown improvement of late, including the 2-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers in Gameweek 36.

The Brazilian was particularly lively in the first half at Old Trafford, providing the assist for Anthony Martial’s (£6.3m) opener, before he went close on several occasions, registering six shots.

In fact, in his last six matches, he sits third among all FPL midfielders for goal attempts, having been presented with three Opta-defined ‘big chances’. His decision-making and finishing ability are admittedly sometimes questionable, but his shot volume offers encouragement.

As for Man Utd, they certainly have the pick of the fixtures, as they sit top of our Season Ticker for the remainder of the season. They, of course, play twice in Double Gameweek 37 against Bournemouth, who are already safe, before hosting Chelsea who have been poor under Frank Lampard.

With doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£7.2m) involvement, Antony could be the one to step up. That’s because all of the Brazilian’s returns since the last international break have come without the England man on the pitch.

RODRIGO

FPL Gameweek 37 differentials: Ferguson, Antony + Rodrigo 2
  • FPL ownership: 3.8%
  • Price: £6.3m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: whu | TOT

Leeds United have just two games left to escape relegation, with a trip to the London Stadium up first on Sunday.

The timing of the clash could potentially work in their favour, given that West Ham United were involved in a gruelling UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final in Holland on Thursday. The last time they faced such a tight turnaround, they were comfortably beaten 2-0 at Brentford, conceding 3.7 expected goals (xG).

Sam Allardyce found room for strikers Rodrigo (£6.3m) and Patrick Bamford (£7.1m) against Newcastle United last time out, as the Spaniard lined up on the right side of his 4-3-3 formation, where he looked dangerous when he got the chance to cut back onto his stronger foot.

The same might be in store against the Hammers, where Rodrigo could potentially be up against left-back Emerson (£4.0m), who was benched against AZ Alkmaar on Thursday. His defending wasn’t great last weekend when he came off second best against Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m).

Across the season, it’s also worth noting Rodrigo is Leeds’ top scorer, with 12 goals from 21 starts. He has also posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box and efforts on target.

With attacking returns in each of his two appearances under Allardyce, Rodrigo will now be looking to add to his tally against West Ham, and could be an effective differential for FPL managers on the lookout for a new midfielder.



511 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. PKnox11
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    20 points behind in my ML, is now the time to go aggressive and pick a different captain?

    1. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I’m 23 behind. I’ve brought KDB in and McNeil. I’ll probably still captain Haaland but yeah defo time to go aggressive and play differentials/ go different captain.
      Good luck.

    2. Norco
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Absolutely.

      I've got Bruno and Shaw and those above me don't, they would need to take -4 or even -8 (if they keep Salah) to match it. Hopefully they can help me bridge the gap

  2. Ragabolly
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Risers: Shaw (5.3) Estupiñán (5.0) Konaté (4.9) Greenwood (4.1)

    Fallers: Diogo Jota (8.6) Saka (8.0) Watkins (7.3) Billing (5.0) Meslier (4.4) Begović (3.8) Ortega (3.7)

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Ortega a nice bargain price for his GW38 start 😉

      1. House Frey Wedding Planner
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Pep being Pep would probably play Carson in the last game

    2. Norco
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Still can't believe how much Jota has burnt me

    3. OverTinker
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Finally Greenwood has risen

      1. Scalper
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Yours is green?

  3. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Best option here folks? 1 ft, 0.1m itb. Rashford and trippier flags making it a tough call.

    a. zinchenko > lindelof
    b. Salah zinchenko > Bruno Taa -4
    c. Rashford isak > Bruno greenwood -4
    d. Something different?

    EDERSON
    SHAW DUNK trippier
    GREALISH RASHFORD MITOMA MAC salah
    HAALAND wilson

    KEPA isak mee zinchenko

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

  4. XX SMICER XX
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Who is the best Isak replacement?
    Currently eyeing Alvarez. Is Bamford too punty?

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Alvarez.

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Could be genuinely Wilson
      If you are selling Isak presumably you think Wilson starts and thus he'll be hard to ignore at home and against that leaky Leicester defence

      1. XX SMICER XX
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        This is true. Transfer would be admitting I got it wrong originally and feels like I’m chasing last weeks haul

  5. Hy liverpool
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Son to Foden/Mahrez (-4)?

    1. Stuventus
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Mahrez

    2. sulldaddy
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      mahrez

  6. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Which -4 move would you do ?

    A Kepa to DDG (have Shaw)
    B Mitoma to Macalister

    1. DycheDycheBaby
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

    4. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    5. Hy liverpool
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

    6. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    7. computer
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

  7. DycheDycheBaby
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Anything worth a -4 here or GTG?

    Raya
    Robertson--Estupinan--Shaw
    Rashford--Bruno--Mitoma--Mac10--Mahrez
    Alvarez--Haaland
    (Kepa, Isak, Trippier, Botman)

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      G2G

  8. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Steele
    Lindelof taa shaw
    Mitoma salah mahrez(c) gundo willian
    Haaaland isak

    Subs pope gabriel schar solanke
    Gtg?

  9. steven8991
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Is this too much?

    Trippier, Rashford, Isak to Lindelof, Bruno, Alvarez for -8

    1. Rafster
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Thinking abt the same moves. I've already done Trip/Rash to Lindlof/Bruno for -4.

  10. Magical
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Any chances Rashford plays both games this GW?

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Looks unlikely

    2. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Depends how ill he is.

    3. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I personally find it hard to believe that your best player will sit out due to sniffles with top 4 in the balance

      1. Scalper
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Rashford (c) 🙂

        1. Letsgo!
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Nice risk but nope he wont start the first game

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 10 months ago

            Non owner by any chance?

            1. Letsgo!
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 10 months ago

              Owner but sold

              1. Bushwhacker
                • 6 Years
                2 years, 10 months ago

                Uh….

      2. Magical
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Exactly.. that’s what I am thinking too.. even with 50% fit, he must be starting..

      3. Bushwhacker
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Who says its sniffles?

        1. Scalper
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          True. Just a guess. But I think if it was serious, ten hag would’ve ruled him out

  11. mitro
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Now thinking Grealish + Wilson to Bruno + Alvarez -4 ? Y or N

    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      No.

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Not for me

    3. C0YS
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Hell naw

  12. KDB4PREZ
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    If leading ML by 20 points would you do Isak>Wilson for -4 if 2nd and 3rd have both them? I imagine they will both play Wilson

    A) Isak>Wilson -4 and cover chasers
    B) Hold fire and hope Wilson doesn’t kill it

    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B.
      A isn't covering. It's covering with 4 points less.

      1. timmmuh
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Agreed

  13. timmmuh
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Jesus to Alvarez for a -4? Chasing in ML …

    1. timmmuh
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Steele (Martinez)
      Shaw-TAA-Trippier- Stones
      Rashford-Salah-Mitoma-McAllister (Martinelli)
      Haaland(c)-Wilson (Jesus)

    2. KDB4PREZ
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I would

      1. timmmuh
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Who would you bench then? Thx

        1. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Trippier

  14. Jcr46
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    I need to bench one of:
    A) Lindelof
    B) TAA
    C) Rashford
    D) Grealish
    E) Mitoma
    F) McAllister
    G) Wilson
    Any thoughts?

    1. Norco
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      E (I think h’ll only plays ones)

  15. Drogba Legend
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    130 points this past GW..big boost finally

    Ederson
    Shaw - TAA - Estu - Lindolof
    Salah - Rash - Grealish - March - Mitoma
    Haaland - Wilson

    Iversen - Solanke - Botman - March***

    A) March > MaCallister
    B) Grealish > Mahrez
    C) Rash > someone?
    D) Something else?

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A (March 2x)

  16. PapaWengzz
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Isak, Grealish > Alvarez, Mahrez for a -4? Or just Isak > Alvarez?

    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Alvarez.

      1. Sloopy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        ^ this

  17. stumanchuu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Greaslish to mahrez for free?

    1. Stuventus
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  18. MaestroMostar
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    De Gea
    Stones Estu Shaw
    Rash Grealish Mitoma MacA
    Isak Kane Haaland(C)

    Kepa Trippy Gakpo Botman

    Did Raya->De Gea for free, G2G or make some change for -4 or play Trippy instead or someone? Have 1.7 MITB btw.
    Cheers

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      G2G

  19. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Capt mahrez or shaw

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Mahrez is desperate!

    2. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      M

  20. tryf88
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Does Mitoma start both? Bench for Alvarez?

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I would bench!

  21. WibblesTeam
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    A) Kepa > De Gea
    B) Ode > Rashford

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A out of those

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Kepa might not even start, and games are ruibbish anyway. A.

    3. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

  22. tryf88
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Dias and Isac fo TAA and Alvarez?

    1. tryf88
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      For -4

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Yup, seems a solid -4

  23. Differential C (Mark)
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    So basically in my work cup semis rn, it goes down to

    Stones v Trippier
    Salah v Bruno F
    MacA v Ferguson
    Alvarez v Gundogan
    Wilson v Havertz

    Rest are similar/equal.

    Who wins? Left or right.

    1. Bavarian
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Left

  24. Freshy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Dont feel right sitting Tripps
    GTG?
    DeGea
    Shaw-TAA-Estupiñán
    Mitoma-Rashford(VC)-MacAllister-Salah
    Haaland(C)-Isak-Wilson
    Arrizabalaga-Trippier-Moreno-Martinelli

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Would be tempted to start Tripps over Isak, but that lineup's g2g.

    2. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      G2G

  25. Zenith UK
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Had a few drinks, couple of hours until GW starts, need some thoughts please. Definitely stuck...

    1.1ITB w/ 2FTs

    Steele²
    Stones², Shaw², Estu²
    Salah, Grealish², Rashford², Mitoma²
    Haaland²(c), Wilson, Kane

    Kepa², Burn, White, Andreas*

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Mitoma (rest?) > McAllister (had his rest)

    2. Zenith UK
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Tempted by Grealish > Antony for free

      1. Stuventus
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Jack ==>> Mahrez?

        1. Zenith UK
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Does Jack get benched now that the UCL Final is so far away? At least with Antony you're more or less guaranteed 60 mins in both games?

  26. FlockofSeagulls
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Hey brochevskis, I'm 64pts behind my mini leader and have more doublers than him heading into this game week. I'm sure he'll captain Haaland. Is this the time for to take a punt on Alvarez as captain and hope Haaland has a quiet one and maybe gets a rest for the second game? Any suggestions welcomed. Thanks.

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I would rather captain Bruno over Alvarez

    2. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I would capt Salah before Alvarez

    3. sulldaddy
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      captaining Alvarez is NOT the way

  27. john25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Hey guys, think Mitoma starts both games this GW?

    Cheers

    1. Sloopy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      No

    2. Bad Kompany
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Probably not

    3. john25
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks for the replies. Who do you think have higher chance to start both games this GW between Mitoma and Rashford?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Depends if Rashford even travelled.

  28. Bad Kompany
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What are your thoughts on Isak vs Ferguson vs Enciso?

    1. Stuventus
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Keep Isak

  29. harrysponge
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    A) KDB + Watkins --> Salah + Alvarez (-4)

    B) KDB + Watkins + Mee --> Salah + Alvarez + Estupinan (-8)

    Thanks!

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. harrysponge
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers BSO!

  30. bso
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Start Stones or Botman?

    1. harrysponge
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Stones, I have Botman too but doubt there are CS points..

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Stones

    3. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks guys