Three more of Saturday’s Premier League fixtures get the Scout Notes treatment, following on from our post-mortem of the matches at Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton and Fulham v Crystal Palace are the focus here.
All the key numbers from Saturday, from bonus points to expected goals (xG), can be found in this Scoreboard piece.
‘SOMETHING TO PLAY FOR’
Aston Villa entertain Brighton and Hove Albion on the final day of the season, a win for the hosts guaranteeing European football for 2023/24.
“If it wasn’t for Gerrard, we’d be top” was the cry from the visiting fans at Anfield and this game was an indicator how far the Villans have come under Unai Emery, with a previously free-scoring Liverpool reduced to few openings; an expected goals (xG) total of 0.75 was the lowest that the Reds had registered on Merseyside this season.
Even an in-form Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), who had a preposterous 23 penalty-box touches, was held at bay until his late assist.
Above: The Premier League table in 2023 (via Transfermarkt)
Whether you subscribe to the ‘something to play for’ theory or not, the Gameweek 38 clash with Brighton not being a dead rubber at least ensures that a “motivated” Emery isn’t about to run wild with the rotation and hand fringe players a courtesy start.
“We had a challenge I challenged the players three months ago when we escaped from the bottom, but not clearly. I was telling them my objective was to progressively get top-10 position and then try to be competitive and try to arrive in the last match against Brighton, maybe playing for something. With seven places available for Europe, we were thinking, if we were competitive away and at home like we were, to challenge it The players really did it. We are now so motivated now.” – Unai Emery
Liverpool’s clash at Southampton may well be a dead rubber, however, a top-four spot potentially out of reach after the midweek Gameweek 37 matches.
Early team news leaks next Sunday will be keenly awaited given how awful the Saints have been, as they’re not likely to offer the resistance that a resurgent Villa did and there’s haul potential for whichever Liverpool attackers get the nod.
Jurgen Klopp meanwhile blamed this below-par display on the emotion surrounding the Anfield farewell of four of his players, including the equaliser-grabbing substitute Roberto Firmino (£8.0m), not to mention Villa’s savvy game management/time-wasting.
“This day was not an easy day for us – no excuse for anything, it just was not easy because we all love these four boys. And it was clear somehow we have to prepare a little bit, you prepare here and there pictures, presents, these kinds of things, but first there’s a super-important game. And this part of the day was, first half, not great I would say.” – Jurgen Klopp
WATKINS’ PENALTY WOES
Villa were good value for their lead, Jacob Ramsey (£5.1m) scoring before wasting another chance and Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) missing from the spot. Watkins hasn’t found the net since Gameweek 31.
Watkins has now missed more penalties than he has scored in his professional career, meanwhile.
Another semi-popular Villa asset in FPL, Alex Moreno (£4.5m), likely won’t be part of the side to face Brighton next Sunday due to injury.
CALVERT-LEWIN INJURY LATEST
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) may have been tiptoeing into ‘Gameweek 38 punt’ territory ahead of a home clash with Bournemouth but he’s now an injury doubt for the final day, a hamstring strain forcing him off just before half-time at Molineux.
Nathan Patterson (£3.9m) suffered a similar issue earlier in the match.
“We’ll just have to wait and see, it’s too early yet. It will probably be on Monday when they settle down that we’ll know the true nature.” – Sean Dyche on his two injured players
MCNEIL AT LEFT-BACK
Another possible option for last-hurrah differential-seekers, Dwight McNeil (£5.1m), was playing in a position you wouldn’t want to see him.
A defensive injury crisis saw McNeil start at left-back at Molineux, later pushing forward slightly to left wing-back when Dyche tweaked his formation.
The budget FPL midfielder unsurprisingly didn’t register a single shot or penalty-box touch but at least he retains set-piece-taking duty, creating a big chance for Yerry Mina (£4.3m) from a corner on Saturday.
Dyche’s pre-match press conference later in the week will be important regarding McNeil’s final-day starting position, as Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.1m) could be available.
EZE ATTRACTING GAMEWEEK 38 INTEREST
Having scored off the bench against Southampton last weekend, Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m) further announced his return to first-team contention with a brace against Crystal Palace.
Above: Aleksandar Mitrovic is sixth among forwards for goals per 90 minutes (G) this season
An away trip to Manchester United – who have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 14 home games – means most that FPL managers will be swerving Mitrovic and the Cottagers in Gameweek 38.
But Palace entertain the side with the worst away record in the division, a now-safe Nottingham Forest, on the final day, and there’ll be plenty of takers in Eberechi Eze (£5.6m). He is FPL’s most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek at the time of writing.
Eze’s assist for Odsonne Edouard (£5.0m) took him to eight attacking returns in nine starts under Roy Hodgson, more than half of his season total.
“[Eze] has been playing exceptionally well. But if you spoke to him, he would regard today’s performance as one of the expectational ones.
“He’s an exceptional player, but the good thing with him and Michael Olise today – who, for the whole of the first half, were below what we know we can expect from them – both came back more and more into the game,. Even though things weren’t going for them, they kept fighting and kept themselves in the game – it’s an important lesson for those two very talented boys to learn.
“It’s not always going to be like playing Bournemouth like it was last week, where it was very comfortable for us and we had lots of flowing moves and possession. Sometimes you have to find another part of your game. I was really pleased with Eze and Olise today – that’s what they did.” – Roy Hodgson
The good thing with Fulham and Palace, unlike Wolves, is that both Marco Silva and Hodgson have been mostly eschewing rotation even with little riding on their results, so there shouldn’t be too many teamsheet surprises on the final day.
“It was a game both teams wanted to win – it wasn’t a game that in any way suggested it was an end-of-season game where both teams were pretty content with the recent form they have had.” – Roy Hodgson
