The Scout Notes are back for 2023/24, continuing with Arsenal v Nottingham Forest and Everton v Fulham.
We look at the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) headlines from both games – a benching for Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m) taking top billing.
ARTETA ON GABRIEL’S BENCHING
The pre-deadline (and only just pre-deadline) rumours about Gabriel being left out of the Arsenal team turned out to be true.
It wasn’t an injury to blame, however, with the Brazilian making the bench at the Emirates.
Eddie Nketiah (£5.5m) replaced the centre-half in the Arsenal starting XI, a change that necessitated a tactical reshuffle.
Above: Arsenal’s Gabriel-less set-up, with Thomas Partey (no. 5) playing as a hybrid right-back. Ben White (4), William Saliba (2) and Jurrien Timber (12) made up the rest of the back four.
Mikel Arteta offered an explanation of sorts both before and after the win over Nottingham Forest, although it was vintage Arteta in its ambiguity.
“Every game demands different things and Eddie [Nketiah] didn’t play last game and has done really well in pre-season and he deserves to play.
“He has been really good and always been a threat. Every game needs different qualities. This is how we start the game and we will probably finish in a very different way.” – Mikel Arteta speaking ahead of kick-off
“We expected a game that actually happened and we needed somebody else there in midfield to do what we have to do the best, and have more fluidity and occupy certain spaces in relation to how they were defending. I think it worked really well.” – Mikel Arteta on playing Thomas Partey at right-back and benching Gabriel
Gabriel had started 73 league matches in a row before Saturday – so can he regain his place?
The good news for the Brazilian is that Jurrien Timber (£5.0m) hobbled off with a knee injury against Forest, potentially freeing up a spot in defence in Gameweek 2. The bad news is that Takehiro Tomiyasu (£4.5m), and not Gabriel, was brought on to replace Timber against Forest.
Plenty of uncertainty going into the Crystal Palace game, then, and no chance of any team leaks with the Gameweek 2 deadline falling over 72 hours before the clash at Selhurst Park.
NOT VINTAGE ARSENAL
There were high hopes of a bloodbath and an FPL points bonanza at the Emirates. It didn’t really materialise.
The Gunners dominated but didn’t create a single ‘big chance’ all game, with four of their seven shots on target being speculative attempts from outside the area. All this against the Premier League’s worst away side of 2022/23.
Arsenal’s two goals owed to two moments of individual genius, rather than free-flowing team moves.
Gabriel Martinelli‘s (£8.0m) sublime Marseille turn led to Nketiah’s opener, before Bukayo Saka‘s (£8.5m) sensational strike from distance doubled Arsenal’s lead. Many FPL managers’ Gabriel replacement, William Saliba (£5.0m), inevitably claimed the assist.
In mitigation, Arsenal were bedding in three league debutants – Timber, Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and Declan Rice (£5.5m) – in their side, as well as their second-choice striker (Nketiah) and Partey at right-back. The cohesion will come.
We only need to cast our minds back 12 months to Gameweek 1 of 2022/23, when the Gunners were solid if not spectacular (1.00 xG then, 0.83 v Forest this time) against Crystal Palace. A 4-2 walloping of Leicester City followed the next week.
The difference from 2022/23 to the present day is that you were pretty sure of the Arsenal XI back then, whereas Arteta appears to be more flexible with tactics and personnel now. Saka and Martinelli earned their manager’s praise after Forest but is anyone 100% safe after Gabriel’s benching?
“That’s my job, to create bigger problems for the opponents and the ones that they are creating us, and to play the best possible way to earn right the to win the game and have the highest probability to win the game. In order to do that we have to pick the right players every week, not to start only but as well to finish and the players that come in the final part of the game, they really help us as well to earn the right to win.” – Mikel Arteta
£4.0m TURNER STARTS, AWONIYI SCORES AGAIN
Interest in Forest players is minimal, with both Manchester clubs and Chelsea to come away from home between Gameweeks 2-6.
But in between, there are home matches against Sheffield United and Burnley.
One Forest asset who is popular in FPL circles is goalkeeper Matt Turner (£4.0m), who had a decent debut here against his old club.
Owned by 14.2% of FPL managers (more than the rest of Steve Cooper’s squad combined), he is one of just two £4.0m goalkeepers so far – the other being Alphonse Areola – who has started for their club in Gameweek 1.
A Blades side lacking a goal threat against Palace on Saturday are up next and there’ll be many Turner owners who will be starting him in Gameweek 2.
If you own Turner and one of Jordan Pickford (£4.5m), Andre Onana (£5.0m) or Sam Johnstone (£4.5m), indeed, the Forest goalkeeper covers their tricky Gameweek 2 and 5 fixtures well.
Keep an eye on the transfer market, though, in case Forest recruit further.
Forest rallied after a slow start at the Emirates and, for the fifth league game running, Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.5m) was on the scoresheet. Recovering from injury and coming off the bench to score, he did what Brennan Johnson (£6.0m) couldn’t do earlier when the Welshman wasted a glorious chance at 0-0.
EVERYTHING BUT THE GOAL
Over at Goodison Park, the match panned out probably exactly as many predicted.
A home side lacking a fit, ruthless striker came up against a save machine, resulting in a smash-and-grab win for the visitors and a haul for Bernd Leno (£4.5m).
The German, the biggest xG-defier of 2022/23, made nine stops in all and collected the maximum bonus en route to a 12-point total.
Nathan Patterson (£4.5m), Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) and Neal Maupay (£5.0m) spurned clear openings as Everton finished on 2.73 xG – no side accumulated as much, without scoring, in the whole of last season.
The Toffees also had a strike harshly ruled out for a supposed impeding of Leno by James Tarkowski (£4.5m).
At least the chance creation bodes well for the more clinical Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) and Arnaut Danjuma (£5.5m) when (or if) they’re fit.
“Arnie [Danjuma] is getting fit, properly fit – he knows he’s a bit behind the curve. Dominic [Calvert-Lewin] will get some football this week, amongst others. Dom is at the end of his rehab period, so, in the next week or two, we’re going to be stronger, just by our own group and let’s see if we can get something in to help us as well.” – Sean Dyche
Three points for Fulham, then, but not a good advert for many of their players bar Leno.
Even Marco Silva admitted that it was a one-man show.
“We didn’t perform. Bernd kept us in the game. A great, great performance from Bernd Leno kept us in the game in certain moments when we were under pressure.” – Marco Silva
In fairness to Fulham, they started the game without the spine of their 2022/23 side: a half-fit Andreas Pereira (£5.5m) and a fresh-out-of-the-doghouse Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.5m) were subs, while Joao Palhinha (£5.0m) is injured and Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) reportedly wants out.
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