The second part of Frisking the Fixtures focuses on the teams at the wrong end of our Season Ticker.
These are the teams with the trickiest runs of matches from Gameweek 5 onwards, on paper at least.
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BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION
The Seagulls’ supposedly tougher tests started in Gameweek 4 – but Roberto De Zerbi’s side made a mockery of the fixture difficulty rating by pummelling Newcastle United.
The theoretically tricky run continues after the September international break and goes through to Gameweek 9.
Four of last season’s top seven await in the next five Gameweeks, concluding with a trip to the reigning champions.
Manchester United and Aston Villa aren’t in particularly good shape at the back this season, however. Each of those teams conceded three goals in Gameweek 4.
Injuries have decimated both backlines, in mitigation, but the below expected goals conceded (xGC) table only underscores what many of us have witnessed in the opening month.
Above: Teams sorted by the most expected goals conceded (xGC) after four Gameweeks
The below graphic, meanwhile, shows what selected Brighton players did against their upcoming five opponents in 2022/23. While the Bournemouth fixtures accounted for two of Kaoru Mitoma‘s (£6.5m) attacking returns and half of Pervis Estupinan‘s (£5.3m) clean sheets, Solly March (£6.6m) bagged two goals and four assists against Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs.
Above: Brighton’s players sorted by 2022/23 FPL returns against the same teams they play in Gameweeks 5-9
Expect Albion to go toe to toe with their more illustrious upcoming opponents, then, and the goals to still flow.
De Zerbi’s troops start their UEFA Europa League campaign in between Gameweeks 5 and 6, it should be said, so it’s the added threat of rotation, rather than the more daunting fixtures in isolation, that may be the biggest deterrent.
WEST HAM UNITED
Third for FPL points at present is Jarrod Bowen (£7.1m), who has scored in three of West Ham United’s opening four fixtures.
If he’s still there come Gameweek 7, then he and the fourth-place Hammers may be in for a special season.
There’s a similar feel to Brighton’s fixtures, with four clubs involved in European competition to come before Gameweek 10.
A cause for optimism will be West Ham’s performances against the Seagulls and Chelsea in Gameweeks 2 and 3, in which 5.02 expected goals (xG) were generated. The six actual goals scored weren’t a total fluke, then.
Clean sheets for Alphonse Areola (£4.1m) will be harder to come by, as all bar Sheffield United of his next five opponents know where the goal is.
West Ham are in Europe themselves this season but, unlike Newcastle, Brighton and Aston Villa, we’re in familiar territory with David Moyes’s troops.
The Hammers have juggled the dreaded Thursday-Sunday schedule for each of the last two seasons, often handing fringe players a chance on the continent. Bowen started only two of last season’s six UEFA Europa Conference League group-stage matches, the same happening in the Europa League in 2021/22.
SHEFFIELD UNITED
Despite a 12-point haul in Gameweek 4, Cameron Archer (£4.5m) looks set to be warming Fantasy benches for the foreseeable future.
Four of Sheffield United’s next six matches are on the road, with their two home games against the Uniteds of Newcastle and Manchester.
Gameweek 8 against Fulham is a possible starting opportunity, at a stretch, but otherwise Archer looks set for emergency substitute duty in the short term. Not a bad option for such an event, based on the evidence of his league debut.
What you would say about Sheffield United is that they’re encountering a lot of teams before or after they play in Europe, so the hope from their perspective is that their opponents take their eyes off the ball – perhaps resting some key assets – against the Blades.
Newcastle United, for example, face AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League and Manchester City in the EFL Cup either side of their Gameweek 6 trip to Bramall Lane.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will have travelled to Chelsea and Sevilla in the week leading up to their hosting of Sheffield United in Gameweek 10.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Wolverhampton Wanderers have the exact same four tricky-on-paper teams that West Ham encounter in the next six Gameweeks, namely Liverpool, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Newcastle United.
All of them visit Molineux, where home form was so key in 2022/23.
Gary O’Neil’s side are difficult to figure out, having been excellent in defeat against Manchester United but dire in victory over Everton.
Wolves also more than matched Brighton and Crystal Palace for periods, only to lose quite comfortably on both occasions.
While Pedro Neto (£5.5m) has shown some promise over the season so far, it’s fair to say that many of us would be having doubts about bringing in Wolves players even if the fixtures were good, never mind as (mostly) formidable as the next six are.
Meetings with the two north London clubs then follow in Gameweeks 12 and 14.
The next four away matches are at least favourable (Luton Town, Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Fulham) but Wolves have won only three of their last 22 fixtures on the road, so O’Neil will have to stop a rot that set in under Julen Lopetegui.
ALSO CONSIDER
Crystal Palace will have easier runs in 2023/24, for sure, with three forbidding away fixtures in the next five Gameweeks plus free-scoring Spurs to come in Gameweek 10.
Everton have the carrot of an excellent home double-header in Gameweeks 7 and 8 but either side of that, it’s a bit of a horror show. Brighton, Crystal Palace and Manchester United follow in Gameweeks 11-13, with more off-putting matches beyond even that.
Elsewhere, it’s more about being aware of future fixture swings. Manchester City and Brentford encounter some of the league’s better sides from Gameweek 8 onwards, while Chelsea‘s own schedule looks ominous from Gameweek 9.
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