Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A.
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READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 25 team news: Friday’s live injury updates
Q: Who are the best defenders to have for Gameweeks 26 and 29?
(via @FPL_Karbownik)
A: With Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.6m) ruled out for Gameweek 25, a lot of FPL managers are looking for defensive replacements and ideally one that plays in both Gameweeks 26 and 29.
Even when looking at Double Gameweek 25, I’m not sure if Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) is the best option. Both of Liverpool’s opponents are capable of scoring, then they blank, with Manchester City in Gameweek 28 and likely another blank afterwards. As of now, the five teams we definitely know will play in both 26 and 29 are Aston Villa, Brentford, West Ham United, Burnley and Fulham. Of these, Brentford are the only one that doubles in 26.
Villa would have been the obvious investment destination but they’re ravaged by injuries at the moment with Boubacar Kamara (£5.0m) and Diego Carlos (£4.4m) both ruled out. Pau Torres (£4.6m) would have been an obvious pick but he hasn’t started a game since injury and the team’s defensive prospects have now worsened significantly without Kamara in front.
Alex Moreno (£5.1m) now likely has to suffer rotation with Lucas Digne (£4.6m) and if I was to pick one at the moment, it would probably be Matty Cash (£4.6m) but even he might suffer rotation when Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) is back and won’t be as attacking without Kamara giving him the license to bomb forward.
West Ham and Burnley defenders aren’t worth considering how poor their underlying data is. Plus, many of us own Alphonse Areola (£4.2m) or Charlie Taylor (£4.0m) already. Meanwhile, Fulham’s opponents in these two Gameweeks are Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, which brings us to Brentford. Their fixtures look quite poor but their centre-backs are capable of nicking a goal from a set-piece and now we have Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m) who’ll likely be an advanced wing-back in these tougher fixtures and also takes some set pieces.
He would be my top pick when looking specifically at defenders who play in Gameweeks 26 and 29. However, I would bring in an Arsenal defender over any of the aforementioned, despite their likely absence in the latter.
Q: How many minutes do you expect Erling Haaland (£14.4m) to play and how many points do you expect him to score? Could Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m) possibly outscore him?
Q: Gut feeling behind the Triple Captain being on Haaland this week?
(via Red Lightning and Connor’s Calling)
A: I expect Haaland to start both games in the double. There has been talk that he might miss time due to a family bereavement but that’s just speculation at this stage. Now that he’s back to full fitness, starting three games in a week is not a problem and the fixtures are games that Pep Guardiola will not take lightly.
I expect him to get more joy against Chelsea than Brentford because the Blues are unlikely to park the bus and we might see an open game like the 4-4 reverse at Stamford Bridge. With Brentford, as we saw recently, their three centre-backs are likely to swarm around Haaland, allowing those around him to benefit. If I was to guess, I’d say between 12 and 20 points for Haaland. For me, that’s good enough for Triple Captain usage, as the potential for grabbing 25+ very much exists.
With De Bruyne, the prospects of him starting both are good but definitely lower than the Norwegian’s. With his excellent goal record against Chelsea, I expect a weekend start and do think he’ll be needed for assists that get through Brentford’s deep block too. I don’t see him making late runs into the box versus the latter.
At a guess, I’d say De Bruyne brings 10-to-20 points, with a similar floor to Haaland but a lower ceiling. Of course, he could outscore his team-mate but I feel Haaland’s potential for a massive haul is greater.
Q: No player has scored more FPL points since Cole Palmer (£5.9m) made his first Chelsea start in Gameweek 7. Is it really worth using two precious transfers to sell him and bring him back?
A: I think if you’re in a position where you can bench Palmer this week and in Gameweek 26, you do that rather than sell him. Most managers who are playing with eight attackers can afford to do this and play a forward line of Haaland, Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) and Darwin Nunez (£7.6m). He’s one you’ll definitely want back in your squad, as Chelsea could have two doubles beyond Gameweek 30 and will be more expensive to buy back on Wildcard.
However, if you’re playing a 3-5-2 system like me that has a budget third forward, midfield real estate is priceless. The only player I can really sell for De Bruyne out of Richarlison (£7.2m), Diogo Jota (£8.3m), Bukayo Saka (£9.0m), Phil Foden (£8.0m) and Palmer is the Blues’ winger, though you could make a case for Richarlison. The difference here is that I like the Brazilian’s post-26 fixtures a lot more and Spurs are confirmed to feature in Gameweek 29.
So if you sell Palmer for a Man City midfielder, you’re effectively gaining two fixtures over the next two Gameweeks. Therefore I would do this irrespective of the value and transfers lost.
Q: Is Ivan Toney (£8.2m) being overlooked by managers despite fixtures? Ownership under 10%
(via @yala_leopard)
A: The forward line is where it’s most difficult to play ‘fixture chess’. Of the three spots, Haaland is a lock and you’ll want Watkins for his confirmed Gameweeks 26 and 29, both look like good fixtures too.
So that leaves the third spot, which comes down to Darwin, Toney and Dominic Solanke (£6.9m). Most managers have opted for Darwin there but say you ignore the Uruguayan and go for Toney, he will still likely have to be sold for Solanke in Double Gameweek 28. Unless you’re willing to sell Haaland that week.
If Luton do have a confirmed Gameweek 29 fixture and Man City blank, then Haaland to a Luton forward will also be popular, so you won’t have that slot free either. This is probably why Toney is flying under the radar. But I still think he’s a great pick and one that helps you navigate the blanks and doubles quite efficiently.
Q: Brentford’s underlying defensive numbers are actually alright for the season and Mark Flekken (£4.5m) has looked much improved these past two matches. Do you think investing in their defence is worthwhile?
(via F4L)
A: I’ve always thought that Brentford are better at home and leakier on the road but that’s not the case this season.
HOME:
- 23 goals conceded (18th, only worsened by Burnley (27) and Sheffield United (31))
- 166 shots conceded (17th)
- 18.77 expected goals conceded (xGC, 14th)
- One clean sheet
AWAY:
- 16 goals conceded (5th)
- 156 shots conceded (joint-4th with Liverpool)
- 14.55 xGC (3rd)
- Three clean sheets
Of course, you could add say two or three to the xGC for their postponed away fixture at Man City but it still makes for strange reading, considering their home record of past seasons. What it tells me is that they set up more ambitiously at home and look to be more compact on the road.
Over the upcoming fixtures, I expect Brentford to line up in a back three where they’ll look to be more defensively solid. This is good for defensive assets such as Reguillon. I like him as a pick, especially if you can hide him in Gameweeks 27 and 28.
Not as much of a Flekken fan, especially if you already own Areola’s guaranteed matches. They might concede fewer shots because of this system, with centre-backs blocking a lot of attempts.
Q: If it is confirmed that Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) is fit to play, would you be interested in getting him in or waiting for a later Wildcard?
(via ZENITH UK)
A: Even if Jurgen Klopp declares Salah available for the weekend game, I think they’ll be careful about rushing him back considering what just happened with Alexander-Arnold. The aim is to get him up and running for the EFL Cup final, so minutes off the bench would be the ideal preparation. Then Liverpool blank, have a good Gameweek 27 trip to Nottingham Forest but then it’s tricky again. I think waiting on Salah until at least Gameweek 30 is the play.
Q: Is Julian Alvarez (£6.7m) worth keeping for a few more weeks? Do you expect him to continue his run of league starts?
(via Aribo Starmix)
A: Alvarez is a tricky one for owners this week. He has started every league game this season but this has intertwined with De Bruyne and Haaland’s injuries, so we’ve not really seen the Argentinian’s minutes when both are fully fit. I expect him to start at least once in the double though, which gives decent potential for points.
If it requires a hit to move him out, I wouldn’t do it unless you can engineer a way to De Bruyne. I think the Belgian is a much better pick for the period between Gameweeks 25 and 27 whilst acting as a future placeholder for Son Heung-min (£9.6m). With the aforementioned ‘fixture chess’, Alvarez will likely have to be sold soon.
