Semi-bluff: The third way to approach Blank Gameweek 29

Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers provide Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice throughout 2023/24. Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser has a third strategy for approaching Blank Gameweek 29 – the semi-bluff.

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With their imminent transfers, a lot of FPL managers are wondering whether they should commit to buying a Blank Gameweek 29 player or play what is in front of them instead.

Neale already did an article covering the pros and cons of Free Hit 29 versus building a team towards it, which I highly recommend reading.

There’s also a midway strategy in poker called the ‘semi-bluff’.

‘Semi-bluffing is a strategic move in poker that involves making a bet or raise with a hand that is not yet strong enough to win but has the potential to improve. By semi-bluffing, a player can increase their chances of winning the pot and potentially winning it immediately if their opponents fold.’ – Tight Poker

This is something I talk about every year when we enter Blanks and Double Gameweek season, so let me put this into context.

AN FPL SEMI-BLUFF

If you’re looking to sell Diogo Jota (£8.3m) right now, the pool of midfielders who’ll definitely play in Gameweek 29 is very limited. Realistically, you’re only looking at West Ham United’s Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) and Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m), alongside Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey (£5.6m), Douglas Luiz (£5.5m) and Jacob Ramsey (£5.9m).

So either an out-of-form West Ham, who could be rejuvenated if Lucas Paqueta (£6.0m) is back fit, or sub-optimal picks from Aston Villa, a side with European commitments.

Now this is where you play a semi-bluff and hope to get lucky. We don’t know for sure what is going to happen in Blank Gameweek 29 but can hope for a certain outcome in case it gets lucky. If the cards fall in our favour, we raise the stake of the game or play on further and if they don’t, you simply fold your cards and play another day.

Basically, let’s assume you fancy Leeds United to give Chelsea a go in the FA Cup. Or think Nottingham Forest could beat Manchester United, without Luke Shaw (£5.2m) for months and Rasmus Hojlund (£7.2m) for weeks.

If you only own two Arsenal players, the pool gets bigger. You can buy a second attacker from them like Martin Odegaard (£8.4m) or Leandro Trossard (£6.5m), knowing they next face Newcastle United and Sheffield United – both inside the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) over the last six games.

Or you could buy Alejandro Garnacho (£5.0m) versus a Fulham team without the suspended Joao Palhinha (£5.0m). Man United also have a home game against Everton in Gameweek 28 and, if eliminated by Forest, will host Sheffield United in Gameweek 29.

How you go about a semi-bluff has many layers. You can play as per your own team and either commit to one direction based on a certain cup outcome or hedge it with a safer either/or bet. Our decision whether or not to Free Hit in Gameweek 29 is only going to be rubber-stamped nearer the time, once we know exactly what it’ll look like and start predicting what Gameweeks 34 and 37 could be.

We therefore need to have a very open mind regarding Gameweek 27. Certain chip strategies like an early Wildcard could quickly open up, should results go a certain way. You can take this semi-bluff analogy further when it comes to building a Wildcard team and just predict the outcomes of one or two games. What this does is widen the pool of players you’re picking from and potentially you could get lucky by having fixtures fall in your favour.

DON’T IGNORE THE IMMEDIATE

And while you’re playing fixture chess, it’s worth reiterating that there’s huge value to playing what’s in front of you. If you’re already looking to optimise for Gameweek 29 and ignore the preceding three sets of fixtures, that is a dangerous approach.

I learned this lesson the hard way a few weeks ago, during Bukayo Saka’s (£9.1m) lean patch. I mentioned to podcast co-host Pras that his numbers were improving – based on another Scout article – and it was only a matter of time before the hauls would come. Yet I still got lured by fixture chess and did a high-risk Saka to Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m) move.

Over three Gameweeks, I’ve already lost 30+ points because of that. These are the kind of points you could leave on the table by only playing fixture chess and ignoring what is in front of you.

Finding a balance is tough and you need to always carefully weigh the qualitative nature of the player you are selling, as well as buying, while making such moves.

That’s all from me this week. If you want more content, please check out the Gameweek 26 episode of The FPL Wire below.

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