After two goals, two assists and a monster 21-point haul at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, all roads lead to Mohamed Salah (£13.5m) as captain ahead of Gameweek 18 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
For the contrarians, favourable fixtures for a host of big-ticket teams bring differential and alternative options from Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle United to the fore.
As usual, Captain Sensible is here to highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling.
First, we will assess the fallout of the on-site captain poll. We will then analyse the player and team statistics, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Boxing Day’s 11:00 GMT deadline.
THE CAPTAIN POLL
Mohamed Salah, quite simply, is a phenomenon. The Egyptian ran riot in a humbling 6-3 defeat for Ange Postecoglou’s attack-centric Spurs team, with a scoreline more befitting of Wimbledon’s Centre Court.
In a game when Liverpool racked up an incredible 5.63 non-penalty xG, according to Opta, Salah had the lion’s share.
Seven shots in the box, three big chances received, and 15 penalty area touches were all division-leading tallies posted by Salah in Gameweek 17.
Understandably, Liverpool’s right-winger has earned the majority share of our captain poll on merit – backed by around two-thirds of our users ahead of Leicester City’s Boxing Day visit to Anfield.
Meanwhile, Erling Haaland (£14.8m) returns to the upper echelons of the captaincy ding-dong despite just two attacking returns in his last six Premier League outings.
The Norwegian drew a ‘blank’ in another underwhelming team performance for Man City, with Pep Guardiola’s charges submissive in the 2-0 defeat by Emery’s Aston Villa on their West Midlands visit.
Haaland receives the minority backing of 5% of our electorate before the Citizens’ tricky home encounter against Sean Dyche’s resolute Everton backline.
Cole Palmer (£11.3m) occupies third place with 4.3% of the vote, closely followed by Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m) and Alexander Isak (£9.0m).
THE PLAYER STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
The player table highlights the outstanding form of Salah. The Liverpool talisman sits at the summit for big chances (12), shots (28), efforts in the box (27) and shots on target (11).
Salah’s dominance extends to the all-important expected data. The Egyptian’s non-penalty xG tally of 5.69 dwarves his nearest rivals, with Alexander Isak on 4.26 and Palmer’s 3.65 much further back.
Registering a non-penalty involvement every 59 minutes is truly ground-breaking, especially when we consider that Palmer (72.9) and Isak (77) are producing elite numbers.
Palmer and Isak have an interesting head-to-head discussion on our player table. The pair are level for big chances (seven), with the Chelsea playmaker ahead for goal attempts (23 to 20) and shots on target (11 to 10).
The Sweden international’s tally of 16 efforts in the box is bettering by only the aforementioned Salah – with Haaland and Palmer in tow, on 15 and 14, respectively.
Haaland, meanwhile, is an enigma. Man City’s manifestation of discontent in the camp is evident in their underlying numbers with the detriment obvious here.
From the main candidates under consideration, Haaland’s rate of minutes per non-penalty involvement (206.1) is the worst in this assessment. Fourth-placed billing for non-penalty xG (2.12) is new, hugely unwanted, ground for the Norwegian.
In terms of creativity, Palmer’s expected assists (xA, 1.86) tally is best in this sample, followed by Salah’s 1.72 and Isak (1.34).
Unsurprisingly, Salah sits at the summit for big chances created (six), just ahead of Isak (five) and Plamer (four).
For key passes, Palmer tops the chart with 18, with Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) and Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) scooping second and third, with 16 and 15, respectively.
TEAM ATTACKING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Liverpool’s attack looks in top-top form right now, dominating the team data ahead of their Boxing Day showdown with Leicester City.
Arne Slot’s men sit at the summit for big chances (32), total attempts (115), shots in the box (86) and non-penalty xG (15.88) over the last half dozen.
Meanwhile, Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea are the Reds’ closest rivals, statistically speaking anyway.
Palmer’s side sit top for shots on target (43), with the Stamford Bridge outfit second for big chances (28) and shots (114). Chelsea also scooped the silver medals for attempts in the box (83) and non-penalty xG (14.12).
Elsewhere, Man City’s tally of seven goals over the last six matches places Guardiola’s side in the division’s bottom five. Alarmingly, Man City rank midtable across the board for big chances (14), shots on target (26) and non-penalty xG (8.82), with extreme statistical underperformance replaced by underwhelming underlying data.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, meanwhile, produced a strong showing ahead of Ipswich Town’s visit. With 16 goals, 34 shots on target and a non-penalty xG tally of 11.48, the Gunners rank inside the top four over the last six matches.
Isak’s Newcastle United side are certainly on a hot streak after back-to-back 4-0 wins. The Magpies sit in the top five for goals (14), shots (94) and non-penalty xG (11.36) over the last half dozen.
Finally, Man United ranks eighth worst for non-penalty xG, with their tally of 7.25. Ruben Amorim’s new charges sit at midway for goal attempts (77), goals scored (nine), and shots on target (28).
TEAM DEFENDING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Salah’s backers will be buoyed by Leicester City’s numbers ahead of their head-to-head at Anfield. The Foxes sit bottom for goals shipped (16), with their tally of 78 shots in the bow allows and non-penalty xG conceded (14.63) both placing in the bottom three.
Meanwhile, Palmer’s visitors Fulham have allowed the fifth-fewest goals (nine) over the last six, with the Cottagers sitting in the division’s top six for efforts in the box conceded (48).
Notably, only Arsenal and Chelsea conceded chances at a slower rate, with Marco Silva’s men coughing up an attacking opportunity every 9 minutes.
Elsewhere, Haaland’s City host Everton in Boxing Day’s early kick-off, with Sean Dyche’s side boasting a record of five clean sheets over their last six.
The Toffees have shipped the joint fewest goals (four) – level with Arsenal – with the Merseysiders sitting in the top three for efforts in the box shipped (40) and non-penalty xG conceded (5.77).
Arteta’s Arsenal, meanwhile, host Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich Town side who have improved defensively, despite no clean sheet in their last six.
The Tractor Boys sit in the bottom six for non-penalty xG conceded (10.21) and attempts in the box allowed (63).
Only four sides have shipped fewer than Aston Villa (nine) over the last six, with the West Midlands side ranking joint third best for big chances conceded (11).
Finally, Man United’s hosts Wolves will not only benefit from a new manager bounce – but reasonable underlying numbers. Vitor Pereira’s side sits third best for non-penalty xG conceded (5.95) over the last half dozen, however, the Molineux side has shipped 13 goals over the period.
Only two sides have allowed few big chances than Wolves (11) in this assessment.
RATE MY TEAM
Above: RMT’s leading captaincy selections for Gameweek 18
Salah tops the RMT ratings in Gameweek 18, with Liverpool’s Egyptian forecast to score 9.55 points against Leicester City.
In second place is Palmer’s 7.22 points, followed by Erling Haaland and his 6.86.
PREMIER FANTASY TOOLS
Above: Leading captaincy candidates for Gameweek 18 according to Premier Fantasy Tools
Our friends at Premier Fantasy Tools offer a complete range of captaincy tools on their website, one of which is the Captain Picker.
They side with Salah this week, with Cole Palmer second and Erling Haaland third from the key names we’ve mentioned here.
You can also use Premier Fantasy Tools’ Captain Analyser to assess your armband picks for the season – and see where they went right and wrong.
IN CONCLUSION
Above: FPL Gameweek 18 Projected Goals and Clean Sheets by @robtfpl on X
It’s hard to overlook Salah for the Gameweek 18 armband.
As the player table confirms, his underlying numbers continue to offer huge encouragement, in terms of both shot volume and chance creation.
Salah’s status as the number one pick is reinforced by both the captain poll and RMT – where he holds a landslide advantage.
A glance at the all-important market data suggests that Liverpool could smash Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s kamikaze Leicester City side – with Mohamed Salah comfortably top for me.
Meanwhile, Cole Palmer is my number two selection ahead of Chelsea’s home tie with Fulham.
The Chelsea talisman is a dominant force on our player table and with multiple avenues to Fantasy points scoring a haul is never too far away – write him off at your peril.
Completing the top three is the unusually shot-shy Man City marksman Erling Haaland.
The downturn in performance is alarming for both Guardiola’s side and the Norwegian individually.
The visit of Everton could bring a reprieve over the festive period and, despite the strong defensive underlying numbers for Sean Dyche’s side, I’m backing Haaland to bounce back in the bronze medal position.
Finally, Happy Christmas to all the members and users of Fantasy Football Scout – let’s smash the festive Gameweeks together.
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3 months, 8 days agoChances of Havertz in starting XI vs IPS ? WHy he is not in predicted team ffs ?