This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also look at the leading players in each position for expected goal involvement (xGI).
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX MATCHES
| Team | xG | Goals | xG delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 17.63 | 21 | +3.37 |
| 2 | Newcastle United | 14.80 | 17 | +2.20 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 12.22 | 9 | -3.22 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 10.75 | 11 | +0.25 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 10.71 | 14 | +3.29 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 10.60 | 8 | -2.60 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9.40 | 11 | +1.60 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 8.79 | 9 | +0.21 |
| 9 | Manchester City | 8.70 | 11 | +2.30 |
| 10 | Manchester United | 8.35 | 6 | -2.35 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 8.24 | 13 | +4.76 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 8.06 | 8 | -0.06 |
| 13 | West Ham United | 7.89 | 6 | -1.89 |
| 14 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 7.43 | 7 | -0.43 |
| 15 | Fulham | 7.40 | 9 | +1.60 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7.03 | 9 | +1.97 |
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 6.54 | 7 | +0.46 |
| 18 | Everton | 4.36 | 5 | +0.64 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 4.35 | 4 | -0.35 |
| 20 | Southampton | 4.07 | 1 | -3.07 |
Liverpool are well clear at the top of the table, having created chances worth 17.63 xG in the last six matches.
The relative strength of their opponents must be considered (MUN/whu/LEI/tot/FUL/new), but the Reds attack is purring under Arne Slot, with Cody Gakpo (£7.3m) and Luis Diaz (£7.6m) forming an impressive partnership with Mohamed Salah (£13.6m).
Even in a sub-par display against Manchester United on Sunday, they still put together 2.82 xG, the most of any team in Gameweek 20 except Brentford (4.46).
After five successive wins, with 15 goals scored, it is unsurprising to see Newcastle United next on the list.
Alexander Isak (£9.3m) and Anthony Gordon (£7.5m) are the deadly duo in attack, offering a powerful blend of goal threat and creativity.
Meanwhile, it’s developing into another good season for Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, but after Evanilson (£5.9m) was sidelined with a broken foot, might they look to bring in another striker in January?
Even with the Brazilian, wastefulness in front of goal has been an issue (nine goals from 12.22 xG).
It’s perhaps not the best time to draft in Bournemouth players anyway, with four tricky fixtures on the horizon (che/new/NFO/LIV).
Manchester United have not been clinical enough either, scoring 2.35 fewer goals than they should have based on the quality of chances they have created.
They had 84 shots in this six-game sample but only 25 were on target, with Rasmus Hojlund (£6.9m) missing three big chances, defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be anticipated to score.
As for Nottingham Forest, they have scored 13 times from just 8.24 xG. The Tricky Trees overperformance is therefore the most of any side (4.76).
Elsewhere, Brighton and Hove Albion’s attacking threat has tailed off in the absence of Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).
Southampton have scored the fewest goals and it wasn’t even close, however, with just one from 4.07 xG in the last six matches.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX MATCHES
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13 days, 13 mins agoI've just started looking at how the blanks & doubles will work this year. Am I right in thinking that the big change is that this season we know in advance which rearranged fixtures go where? I.e. in previous seasons the 2 big blanks came before the 2 big doubles, so there were 2 GWs where the postponed games could potentially go, whereas this year the blanks from 29 will go in 33, and the blanks from 34 will go in 36? Or could the GW34 blanks still go into 33 (since we'll know the FA Cup semi-finalists before GW33 anyway)?
I haven't listened to any pods or consulted the book of Crellin yet so humour me if this is really obvious 🙂