Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 24. The topics include chip usage, double Liverpool defence and selling ‘single Gameweek’ assets for those doubling.
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Q: Would Bournemouth’s form put you off Liverpool’s defence or the Assistant Manager chip in the Double Gameweek?
(via HAIRY POTTER)
A: Bournemouth’s attack has been on fire of late, with 14 goals over the last six Gameweeks. Nine of those arrived in the last two matches against Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest. However, it is worth mentioning they racked up an xG tally of just 10.44 (fourth) in those games and a non-penalty xG of 9.65 (fifth). So yes, they have been great but they have also overperformed a little bit.
While the clean sheet probability for Liverpool at Bournemouth looks slim, Everton is still a good fixture for a shut-out. There’s also the Wolves fixture immediately after. So, Liverpool’s defence is still worth investing in, especially Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) given his upside.
Given the choice, however, I would prefer to double up on the attack as I still think there will be goals in these fixtures. Of course, it does depend on your team structure and I wouldn’t be spending transfers trying to force or reverse it.
With regards to playing the Assistant Manager chip on Arne Slot, I think with more than three good investible FPL assets for Liverpool, you save the chip for another Gameweek. I think there’s more merit in using it in a larger double when you don’t have to compromise on your actual player picks. The fixtures also could go either way – Liverpool could end up drawing against Everton and maybe losing against Bournemouth – so I don’t like that unpredictability there.
- READ MORE: How do you play the Assistant Manager chip?
Q: Anthony Gordon to Bryan Mbeumo for a hit this Gameweek or do it next week?
Q. Gordon to Mbuemo now or wait for confirmation of the blank teams in Gameweek 29? I’m intending NOT to use my Free Hit in Gameweek 29.
(via Cojones of Destin and @Coleye1977)
A: There is merit in doing the move this week when you look at the underlying numbers. Fulham are fourth for non-pen xGC (5.58) whereas Spurs are in 14th (9.32). The north London side have also suffered poor performances after UEFA Europa League exertions this season, although they do have some of their first-choice defenders such as Micky van de Ven (£4.5m) returning.
However, I do like the idea of leaving the move for next week, when we will know for sure whether Newcastle will feature in Gameweek 29 or blank. I currently like the idea of saving the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 29 as there will only be a maximum of four teams missing out and there is more potential upside in using it in a double, like Gameweek 34 last season. I certainly don’t like the idea of taking a hit for it this week, even with Gordon’s tougher fixture run from Gameweek 25.
Q: David Moyes for the Assistant Manager chip in the Double Gameweek?
(via Water_Pink)
A: I think the only situation I can recommend using the Assistant Manger chip on David Moyes is if we get a provisional announcement of a double for Spurs in Gameweek 25. This would be dependent on them qualifying for the UEFA Europa League last eight and also progression past Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. In that situation, you could swap Moyes for Marco Silva for Fulham’s double in Gameweek 25 and the Cottagers’ home fixture against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 26.
This is still a gamble though, as we won’t know if the double in Gameweek 25 is confirmed until the second leg of the Carabao Cup tie between Liverpool and Spurs, which takes place next week.
The reason for the hesitation on Moyes is that there’s no table bonus for the match-up against Leicester. I see the Toffees potentially struggling without the lack of a focal point, as poor as Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.4m) has been. I also expect Liverpool to score and probably win at Goodison Park, so the ceiling is not very high. In my opinion, there will be better opportunities to play it.
Q: Is it safe to sell Chris Wood for Cody Gakpo?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: I think a large part of this depends on your current rank and goals. Chris Wood (£7.1m) is close to 70-80% effective ownership now, so if you’re looking to chase, points from Wood are not really going to help much. In order to make up ground, you need to go somewhere else and hope that Wood blanks or scores poorly in the upcoming run, which includes Brighton and Hove Albion, Fulham, Arsenal, Newcastle United and Manchester City. Four of those next five opponents are in the top six for non-penalty xGC over the last six Gameweeks.
It comes with risk, though. A haul from Wood will be significantly detrimental to your rank, so again it comes down to your play style and risk appetite.
Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) is likely to outscore Wood simply based on the two fixtures this week. After that, it gets a bit trickier as Gakpo’s minutes will be more difficult to predict when the UEFA Champions League knockout round resumes. Wood also has a great confirmed fixture in Gameweek 29 against Ipswich Town, when Gakpo could potentially blank.
All in all, I think based on the immediate upside that the next two Gameweeks offer for Gakpo, the move from Wood makes sense. It is one I will likely be doing as well.
Q: Is David Raya to Jordan Pickford a trap? Maybe Pickford outscores him in the Double Gameweek (although Jamie Vardy could spoil that) but then Raya has two good fixtures for clean sheets in Gameweeks 25 and 26.
Q. If you owned David Raya and Mark Flekken, which of them would you sell for Jordan Pickford?
(via FP Elephant and @ynoTonynz)
A: Despite the vague injury news last night, I would not be selling David Raya (£5.5m). As of now, the bookies expect Newcastle to progress past Arsenal in the Carabao Cup, which means that the Gunners would likely have a fixture in Gameweek 29. The fixtures after Gameweek 24 read Leicester City, West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United, all of which have decent potential for clean sheets.
However, if you own somebody like Dean Henderson (£4.5m) or Martin Dubravka, the move makes sense. You’re buying a ‘keeper with an extra fixture in Gameweek 24 and one with a likely fixture in Gameweek 29 as well. It makes sense over the longer period.
In the case where you have Raya and Mark Flekken (£4.4m), I would just stick and play Raya. A goalkeeping combination of Raya and Jordan Pickford (£5.5m) is just too expensive.
Q: Do we play Triple Captain chip this week if it’s still available or is there a higher upside with Assistant Manager (assuming no double in Gameweek 25)?
(via @shrikumbhar19)
A: I’ve discussed why I don’t like the Assistant Manager chip this week in the earlier questions so let’s talk about the Triple Captain.
Yes, Bournemouth’s defence has been great. They’ve conceded the fewest goals at home (seven) this season. However, they are ranked eighth for shots conceded (129) at home.
Bournemouth have conceded five goals over the last six Gameweeks (second) and have kept three clean sheets. However, the south coast side are ranked 14th for shots conceded (87). So, I think Liverpool will still get plenty of chances with Andoni Iraola committing to an attacking philosophy.
Meanwhile, the Toffees are ranked 10th for shots conceded (132) in home matches and 16th for shots conceded (92) over the last six Gameweeks.
I think if you have all your chips available, you play it on Mohamed Salah (£13.7m) this week.
Q: Should those of us with double Liverpool defence be looking to move to Cody Gakpo instead?
(via @Rory1063)
A: As mentioned earlier, I think the Liverpool double defence is a good set-and-forget for the long term. There are some great home fixtures after the double against Wolves, Southampton etc and Gakpo’s minutes will be more uncertain than the defensive picks over the next few weeks. Just stick with what you have.
We discussed these questions and more on the Gameweek 24 episode of The FPL Wire. You can check it out here.
Gakpo/Mbeumo for free???
2 months, 2 days agoPlay Wood or Rogers?