FPL notes: Double Gameweek 33 implications, Asensio pen + will Slot rotate?

It was win, win, win for the teams involved in Champions League action in midweek.

Arsenal battered PSV Eindhoven, Aston Villa beat Club Brugge and Liverpool somehow smash and grabbed an unlikely victory at Paris Saint-Germain.

We pick out the key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from all three fixtures in these Scout Notes.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RESULTS

TEAM SELECTION/ROTATION

ARSENAL IN SEVENTH HEAVEN

Striker crisis? What striker crisis? Arsenal’s victory was undoubtedly the most eye-catching result of the night as they broke the Champions League record for the biggest away win in the knockout stage of the competition. No one saw this result coming. 

Shorn of their four main attacking players – Bukayo Saka (£10.2m), Kai Havertz £7.7m), Gabriel Jesus (£6.5m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.5m) – and having failed to recruit in the January transfer window, Fantasy Premier League managers have been giving Arsenal’s remaining attacking players a wide berth. 

An unconvincing win at Leicester, a 1-0 defeat by West Ham United and a goalless draw with Nottingham Forest suggested the well was dry for the Gunners. And yet… seven goals later is it time to re-evaluate?

Quite where this result came from is hard to fathom. Was it having the weekend off, the atrociously generous defending of their hosts or just the gulf in class between the Premier League and the Eredivisie?

For starters, Arsenal rode their luck early on. Ismael Saibari was unlucky to see his drive come back off the bar, while Miles Lewis-Skelly (£4.5m) should probably have got his marching orders for a second bookable offence, when bringing down Richard Ledezma. Had either of those situations taken a different turn, this result would have turned out quite differently. But they didn’t and instead we witnessed a record-breaking 7-1 scoreline.

Declan Rice (£6.2m) set the tone early on with a disallowed goal and thereafter the visitors had the bit between their teeth. Afforded too much time and space in midfield Rice, Martin Odegaard (£8.2m), Lewis-Skelley and Ethan Nwaneri (£4.6m) marauded forward at will and hapless defending by the Dutch played a significant role in the outcome too.

Odegaard’s brace and Mikel Merino’s (£6.2m) strike were a combination of PSV failing to clear their lines and goalkeeping errors, but Jurrien Timber’s (£5.6m) opening header from a pinpoint Rice cross, Nwaneri’s first-time shot from Lewis-Skelley’s cut-back, Leandro Trossard’s (£6.8m) dink and Riccardo Calafiori’s (£5.8m) precise shot off the post were all first-class finishes.

The strange thing about this victory is that Arsenal only just edged the match on xG 1.94 to 1.66.

Admittedly, PSV’s xG is largely accounted for by a sloppy penalty gifted by Thomas Partey (£4.9m), but Peter Bosz’s side nonetheless had 12 shots on goal to Arsenal’s 15.

As far as Arsenal were concerned, almost everything they hit went in.

“When you get to this stage, you have to really play and love the game and take initiative and go for it. And today we have a full-back in Myles who puts a cross in for the opposite winger; you have Jurrien scoring a header as a full-back and you have Richy with the movement of a nine and scoring with his right foot, that’s what I’m talking about – flow, courage and playing the way we want to play.”
Mikel  Arteta on Arsenal’s finishing

“It’s been like this for the last three or four years, we score a lot of goals and the way we share the goals around the squad has been really impressive, so it’s really good because we’re not just depending on one player. When we don’t score, we know what’s going to happen, but I’m very pleased, I think the quality of the goals tonight were incredible.” – Mikel  Arteta on sharing the goals around

NWANERI IMPRESSES AGAIN

In such a fluid team performance, it’s hard to pinpoint the star performer. Nwaneri’s display did stand out, however, given how regularly he is delivering end-product at such a young age. The 17-year-old had the most shots of any player in the game (four) and terrified the PSV rearguard with his pace, directness and willingness to shoot.

“I don’t think that he needs any pushing! You see him every time he has the ball, what the intention is, so if he comes, he comes, and it’s great and really impressive again the way he behaved, the way he played tonight. It’s about consistency now, doing it again three days later in another big stadium.” – Mikel Arteta on Ethan Nwaneri closing on the record

The other performances of note came from Odegaard and Lewis-Skelly. By his own admission, the Norwegian has struggled to reach the levels of the last two seasons but here he led the press, drove his team forward and delivered two goals and an assist. A real captain’s performance which bodes well for his side’s trip to Manchester United on Sunday.

Lewis-Skelly also shone. He is fearless when receiving possession under pressure and was instrumental in each of the first two goals. It was a shame he was substituted in the first half but Arteta had to protect the 18-year-old from himself. Lewis-Skelly’s occasional rashness betrays his tender years but Arsenal certainly have a player – and an FPL asset on their hands. A defender who can get forward, assist and score.

The high number of scorers and the abject defending of the Dutch means we are almost none the wiser as to whether to pick Arsenal assets. Was this result an anomaly or a sign of things to come? And if the latter, which of the six goalscorers should we pick – especially if we are already invested in Arsenal defenders or David Raya (£5.5m)? 

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 33 EDGES CLOSER

What we do know is that Arsenal are going through to the Champions League quarter-finals. So, Arteta can rotate for Wednesday’s return leg and go full tilt for United this Sunday (Gameweek 28) and Chelsea in Gameweek 29.

Neither United nor Chelsea are strong defensively, so there is a case for marking the card of Nwaneri, Trossard or Odegaard for their ability to deliver end-product. A record-chasing Nwaneri at a very attractive price-point is certainly very tempting.

Looking further ahead, Arsenal and Aston Villa’s likely progression into the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals brings Double Gameweek 33 closer to realisation.

In a nutshell, Gameweek 33 could be the only free guaranteed midweek to house a postponed Gameweek 34 fixture for sides still involved in Europe.

Up to four fixtures in Gameweek 34 will be rearranged due to the clash with the FA Cup semi-finals. The matches involving Arsenal and (very likely) Aston Villa could be affected:

Above: Click to expand

ASENSIO ON PENS?

There was little to choose between Aston Villa and Club Brugge on Tuesday night but a mad five minutes of kamikaze defending at the end of the game handed Villa a barely deserved two-goal lead to defend next week.

Villa got off to a dream start when Leon Bailey (£6.2m) rifled them ahead after three minutes but the Belgian side equalised within ten minutes and might have extended their lead but for the excellence of Emiliano Martinez (£5.0m) and Tyrone Mings (£4.4m).

Brandon Mechele’s outstretched leg turned Morgan Rogers’ (£5.6m) cross past his own keeper on 82 minutes. With two minutes to go, Tzolis tripped Matty Cash (£4.4m) – enabling substitute Marco Asensio (£6.1m) to score from the spot and add a flattering gloss to the scoreline.

It was very interesting that Asensio took the spot-kick, as Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) was on the field at the time too.

Villa only had seven goal attempts in total compared to Bruges’ 11. And while the Villa edged the match on expected goals by 1.28 to 0.87, having a penalty (xG 0.76) will skew those numbers. In truth, it was Brugge who looked the likelier winners before the late drama.

Perhaps Emery was playing a containing game, which after one win from their last seven on the road was an understandable play.

That said, his side was more cautious than even he intended so the introduction of Jacob Ramsey (£5.4m), Asensio and Cash had the desired effect, with Cash drawing the foul for Asensio’s late penalty.

“I did four changes thinking to get fresh legs and to keep the same game plan we did, trying to add those four players with their skill and their capacity to get fresh legs for the team.” – Unai Emery hails his substitutes

Villa are stumbling along a bit at the moment. Lying 10^th in the Premier League, they are struggling to juggle the triple demands of league, FA Cup and Champions League commitments. The longer they stay in these competitions, the less appealing their assets become.

ROGERS STARTS AGAIN

Part of the reason for the limited appeal is the rotation risk, with Emery having one of the deepest attacks in the division.

Asensio receiving a benching here, despite his excellent form, underscores the uncertainty. He was a breath of fresh air when he came on against Brugge and has been a revelation since joining in January. The Spaniard has scored five goals in his last four appearances in all competitions and proved last night he can hold his nerve from the penalty spot, too. He really comes to life in the No 10 role.

Morgan Rogers is someone who has swerved rotation outside of the domestic cups. He benefited from a rest in the cup win against Cardiff and was entrusted by Emery with the full 90 minutes against Brugge.

Of course, it’s not worth buying Villa assets now if you don’t own them. They may have half an eye on the return leg against Bruges when facing Brentford this weekend, then there follows a Blank Gameweek 29.

But Rogers and Asensio are ones to keep on the watchlist ahead of a likely Double Gameweek 33 – just don’t have your hopes pinned on 180 minutes for the latter.

LUCKY LIVERPOOL IN ALISSON’S DEBT

Watching Liverpool being systematically outplayed by Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night was a surreal experience. The Ligue 1 side dominated from the off and looked as though they might rout the Premier League leaders when Khvicha Kvaratskhelia curled a beauty into Alisson’s (£5.5m) top-left corner early on.

But VAR came to the rescue. And then so did Alisson. The Brazilian pulled off no fewer than nine saves to keep his side in the tie. Those saves were both the most on record (from 2003/04) by a Liverpool goalkeeper in a UEFA Champions League game, and the Brazilian’s most in any match for the club in all competitions. 

His saves came against shots worth 2.26 xGOT (expected goals on target), which means his performance was worth over two goals prevented based on shot location and other post-shot factors. PSG also had a superior xG of 1.62 to Liverpool’s 0.16 and yet somehow still lost!

Liverpool only managed 29.6 per cent possession, their lowest in any game since the start of the 2021/22 season. The most damning stat of all is Liverpool mustering only two shots compared to PSG’s 27. 

Quite why Liverpool played so poorly is difficult to say, other than to hail Luis Enrique’s side as being simply magnifique, with Ousmane Dembele and Kvaratskhelia undefendable at times. And according to Arne Slot, whose only team change from Gameweek 27 was the return of Andrew Robertson (£5.8m) for Kostas Tsimikas (£4.6m), PSG are the best team in Europe.

“No, no – we were not under par. It’s purely the quality of PSG and the way they’ve played this whole season. All of the underlying stats show you that they were the best team in Europe until now – except for the (Champions League’s) league table.” – Arne Slot on PSG

“If we had a draw over here we would have already been lucky, that’s clear for everyone. I think they were the much better team today, especially in the first half, they had a lot of open chances – three or four big, big, big chances. In the second half they were still the better team, still had a lot of shots on target, but they were mainly from outside the box. But I knew before the game, and I saw again today, how much quality this team has and these individual players have.” – Arne Slot on lucky Liverpool

Slot may have a point. As FPL managers know all too well, there are not too many sides who have managed to mark Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) out of the game – take a bow Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace – yet PSG did so, reducing the Egyptian to 41 touches in 86 minutes.

It was just sod’s law for the French that no sooner did Salah leave stage left, than Harvey Elliott (£5.2m) came on to score the winner within 47 seconds.

WILL SALAH – AND/OR OTHERS – GET A BREATHER?

The blank is no cause for alarm among FPL managers, of course. Salah is only 13 points away from breaking the FPL season points record – and his next opponents are Southampton.

What may be more of a concern is managed minutes in Gameweek 28.

Slot might feel tempted to limit the game-time of Salah, and/or others, in Gameweek 28 given their 13-point Premier League lead. The Reds have had a laser focus on matters in hand this season and will surely beat Saints whoever is selected on Saturday. 

But there is the League Cup final looming next weekend, while their best chance of sealing the deal against PSG will be with a fit and firing Salah in the side. The Egyptian won’t like it, but don’t expect 90 minutes against the Saints – whether that’s in the form an early withdrawal or a rare Premier League benching.

GAKPO CONCERN

Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) played no part in Liverpool’s smash ’n’ grab. The Dutchman travelled with the squad to Paris but did not so much as appear on the bench, which will be a cause of concern for those managers who have held on to him for the Southampton ‘gimme’. 

Gakpo made 13 consecutive starts before picking up an ankle injury which ruled him out of Double Gameweek 25. He then made two cameo appearances off the bench but now has to be a doubt for Saturday’s match. 

If he is missing then Darwin Nunez (£7.0m) will be in contention to lead the line, along with two from Salah, Diogo Jota (£7.2m), Luis Diaz (£7.5m) and Elliott. Darwin provided the assist for Elliott’s winner in Paris, so the pair may well get a run out.

“A big moment for him [Elliott]. I can understand that he is sometimes frustrated by the playing time he gets because he is a good player, he showed at Liverpool already that he is a good player, but he is in competition for players that I hardly take off. So, Dominik Szoboszlai is always the one that just keeps on going, he also scores goals but he’s so important for us with all the running he does. And yeah, Mo Salah I think is quite key for everyone as well. So, he has to do it with limited playing time but he just keeps on going.” – Slot on Elliott

“I have to give him big compliments for that and also my staff because they keep working with him and every time come up with great exercises so he stays fit. But it wasn’t only Harvey, it was also the one who assisted, Darwin Nunez, who came from a difficult two games but was absolutely there again tonight because from the moment he came in we were more of a threat than before.” – Slot on Darwin

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