It’s official: Arsenal have confirmed that the seasons of William Saliba (£6.5m) and Jurrien Timber (£5.6m) are over due to injury.
Saliba is the second-most-owned defender in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), sitting in just under 30% of squads overall. Over 43% of the top 10k managers own him.
Timber isn’t nearly as popular but still features in circa 5% of FPL teams.
So, then, plenty of Fantasy managers find themselves staring at a red flag going into Gameweek 38 – and pondering a few possible replacements.
In this article, we’ll pick out a few candidates to consider.
But first: a Gameweek 38 health warning for defenders.
STOP – ATTACKER TIME
Before you push the transfer button, it’s worth considering whether a move for a defender in Gameweek 38 is really worth it.
The final day of Premier League football is typically goal-laden.
Gameweek 38 of all 14 seasons studied in this article contained more goals per game than that season’s average.
Defensive returns this Sunday may be in shorter supply, then.
If a Saliba/Timber injury is the only fire you have to fight heading into this weekend’s deadline (it’s probably best to wait until after the pre-match press conferences on Thursday and Friday to confirm this…), and you’re content with your starting midfielders/forwards, then there’s no reason not to recruit another defender.
However, if there are other moves you’d like to make – say if Alexander Isak (£9.4m) is ruled out and/or if you want to buy an Arsenal or Bournemouth attacker – and have only one free transfer, then there should be a pause for thought.
Have you got a playable fourth or fifth defender? They might not have as good a fixture as Arsenal’s but they might get you one or two points at worst. If you’re thinking of recruiting a Saliba/Timber replacement for a hit, for example, then you may need a clean sheet just to break even.
Plenty of ponderables, then, but here are some leading names if you are thinking of cashing your red-flagged Gunner in.
BEN WHITE/JAKUB KIWIOR/RICCARDO CALAFIORI
- Prices: £6.1m/£4.9m/£5.8m
- Fixture: Southampton (a)
First up: the straight-ish swap.
Arsenal have one of the best clean sheet opportunities of Gameweek 38, according to the bookies, so why look elsewhere?
Simon Rusk has made Southampton more stubborn since he took over as interim boss. Six big chances conceded in Gameweeks 33-37 is the joint-lowest total in the league, for instance.
But not much has improved at the other end. Rusk’s six matches in temporary charge have seen just two goals scored, a league low.
As for who Mikel Arteta sends out in Gameweek 38, there aren’t many fit senior alternatives to Ben White (£6.1m), Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) and Jakub Kiwior (£4.9m) in their respective positions. An inverting Thomas Partey (£4.9m) is an option at right-back, perhaps, but there seems little rationale for it.
Below is how the Gunners looked in the second half in Gameweek 37 when Saliba went off.
A bit of a muddle to the naked eye but essentially Kiwior holding fort, White a bit less attacking than he’d been in the first half and Calafiori doing his marauding thing that led to suitors courting his services after Euro 2024.
Kiwior is perfect for managers looking for a cheapo replacement, albeit with limited attacking threat – especially with Calafiori alongside him. The Pole could find the net from a corner (Saints have allowed more chances from set plays than anyone this season), like in Gameweek 33, but that header remains his only set-piece attempt in 2024/25.
White has looked fleetingly dangerous in the last two Gameweeks, not being too far away with shots against Liverpool and Newcastle United.
But it’s maybe Calafiori, with his ability to roam, pick out deep-block-bypassing passes, fire off a shot from distance and even pop up at set pieces, who might be the better match for this fixture.
Above: Where Southampton have conceded chances and goals from under Simon Rusk
MILOS KERKEZ
- Prices: £5.2m
- Fixture: Leicester City (h)
On paper, Kerkez is possibly the most attractive replacement out there.
Not just an attack-minded full-back but also at home to a Leicester City side who, while improving of late, have still lost five of their last seven away matches to nil. Jamie Vardy (£5.4m) won’t be spoiling any clean sheets, either.
Kerkez has created at least one chance in nine of his last 11 outings. Over the course of 2024/25, he is ranked among the top 10 defenders for both chances created (35) and assists (six).
Vulnerable to forays from full-backs, Foxes have allowed a whopping 24 defenders (only five of them centre-halves) to deliver attacking returns against them this season.
You can no doubt sense a ‘but’ is coming…
And here it is: Bournemouth’s elimination from the ‘race for the eighth’. Will Andoni Iraola give fringe players a chance in what is now a definite dead rubber? He’s not got many back-ups at his disposal thanks to injuries and suspension but one of them is Julio Soler (£3.9m), Kerkez’s deputy and potential replacement in 2025/26 if the Hungarian moves on.
The Bournemouth boss has previous, rotating regulars Adam Smith (£4.4m) and Dominic Solanke (£7.3m) out of the side on the final day of last season and giving Max Aarons and Enes Unal (£5.4m) rare starts.
Iraola’s press conference will be worth listening to later in the week, to see if he gives any clues about expected minutes in Gameweek 38.
TINO LIVRAMENTO/FABIAN SCHAR
- Prices: £4.6m/£5.5m
- Fixture: Everton (h)
If you can’t swallow the potential game-time risk with Kerkez, at least you know Tino Livramento (£4.6m) is – barring a late injury – going to start.
UEFA Champions League qualification is on the line for the Magpies, while there are few fit alternatives to Livramento – not that he’d be at risk anyway with the form he’s in.
In the last two Gameweeks, Livramento’s starting position has been even more advanced thanks to a (pretty much enforced) move to a wing-back system.
Regardless of set-up, Livramento has been consistently creating chances since moving to left-back in Gameweek 28:
Above: Defenders sorted by chances created in the last 10 Gameweeks
Meanwhile, Fabian Schar (£5.5m) is FPL’s leading defender for shots over the last six Gameweeks. Two of them have found the back of the net.
He had four efforts against Arsenal alone last Sunday.
It might be twitchy on Sunday with a top-five finish on the line. In Everton, Eddie Howe’s side are at least facing the division’s second-lowest away scorers.
AARON WAN-BISSAKA
- Prices: £4.4m
- Fixture: Ipswich Town (a)
One more attacking return will make 2024/25 Wan-Bissaka’s best-ever year for goals and assists.
A full-back once infamous for his lack of offensive prowess has reinvented himself in east London.
Since Graham Potter’s appointment ahead of Gameweek 21, the 27-year-old has created the joint-highest number of big chances (six) amongst all defenders:
Potter tends to play a wing-back system in away games, further boosting Wan-Bissaka’s potential when on the road.
Only four of the 15 chances the full-back has created under his new manager have been in home fixtures.
It’s something to consider when West Ham head to Ipswich this weekend. The Tractor Boys are ending the season with a bit of a whimper, failing to score in four of their last five fixtures – most disappointingly away at fellow relegated side Leicester in Gameweek 37.
EZRI KONSA
- Prices: £4.4m
- Fixture: Manchester United (a)
Ideally, you’d like to tap into Villa’s in-form defence via Ian Maatsen (£4.5m). With 11 shots in his last five starts, he’s one of the most attacking defenders out there in FPL right now.
Alas, he’s a game-time risk. Maatsen and Pau Torres (£4.2m) have become Lucas Digne (£4.4m) and Tyrone Mings (£4.4m) in alternating fixtures. Typically, Unai Emery has started Digne in away matches, rather than Maatsen.
And so, that leads us to the dependable minutes of Ezri Konsa (£4.4m).
You’ll be lucky to catch another goal like last Friday’s: he’s had the same number of goal attempts all season (11) that Maatsen has had in those last five starts.
But it’s the returns at the other end that we’re most hopeful of in Gameweek 38.
Villa have kept clean sheets in six of their last nine league matches. Opponents Manchester United have failed to score in five of their last eight.
It’ll also be a big ask for Ruben Amorim to rally his troops after Wednesday’s deflating defeat in Bilbao.
OTHER CANDIDATES
The remaining names on our defenders’ watchlist all have middling fixtures in Gameweek 38:
But on a day when goals may be flying in across the country, Nottingham Forest v Chelsea could be an edgier affair given the high stakes. The bookies, indeed, project that this will be the lowest-scoring fixture of Gameweek 38.
Marc Cucurella (£5.4m), incidentally, is averaging a goal every four starts since Gameweek 16!
If trying to anticipate clean sheets on a goal-filled round is a futile exercise, then there’s always the hope of a landing an attacking return.
Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.1m) and Daniel Munoz (£5.2m) have low clean sheet odds in Gameweek 38 but they are among the top seven defenders for both shots and chances created this season. Just to prove a point, Ait-Nouri conceded five goals against the Bees earlier in the campaign – yet he still emerged with a nine-point haul thanks to a goal and assist.
