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7 March 2026 136 comments
Lateriser 12 Lateriser 12
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In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser takes a ‘Big Numbers’-style look at some of the stand-out team and player stats ahead of Gameweek 30.

FPL 2025/26 first draft team reveals: Triple Forest, Everton + Chelsea

As we wait for the weekend’s FA Cup action and the repercussions thereafter, I thought I’d spend some time in the Members Area and point out some observations.

With many of us considering a Wildcard in Gameweek 32, it is a good time to assess how things are looking at the moment. 

TEAMS

Buy, keep or sell? FPL transfer trends ahead of Gameweek 8 3

In the last six matches, Chelsea have a staggering xG of 15.93, which is far above Liverpool and Manchester City, who sit at 11.94 and 11.67 xG, respectively. Yes, they have had a few penalties of late but their open-play xG in the same period is 11.39, with Manchester City next at 8.35.

Arsenal are 10th in the league for open play xG during this time (5.49) but are second for xG generated from set plays (4.64). This is behind only Newcastle United, who have a set play xG of 5.14 over this timeframe.

Defensively, though, Arsenal are comfortably the best in the league with an xGC of 4.64.

Crystal Palace have lost Marc Guehi (£5.2m) and have had some issues in defence but still sit among the best five teams for xGC in the last six games, alongside Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea and Man City.

The Eagles’ three goals in Gameweek 29 continued Tottenham Hotspur‘s poor defensive form. The Lilywhites sit second bottom of the xGC table and have the most goals conceded in the last six games. The other teams to target are seemingly Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United, who join Spurs in the bottom three for xGC in this period.

Brentford are a team that have slipped up defensively of late. They find themselves at the wrong end of the table for xGC in the last six games, with only six clubs faring worse.

Aston Villa’s blunt form is showcased in their numbers. Only five teams have generated less xG in the last six matches.

PLAYERS

FPL notes: “Brilliant” Rogers, Villa injuries + Bowen threat

price change predictions
136 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Haaland + Mane to Pedro + Ekitike?

    1. keefy59
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Yes but not for a hit

    2. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Keeping Mr Meat
      So no

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Yes

  2. Scapegoat Salah
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Going away tonight so need to make moves.

    Any early ideas for weekend? Got 3FT:

    Roefs
    Gabriel | Senesi | Andersen
    Palmer | Bruno | Semenyo | Rogers | KDH
    Haaland | Thiago

    Dubravka | El Kroupi | Gundmundsson | Dorgu*

    3FT, 0.1ITB

    Thanks

    1. keefy59
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Just about okay for gw30
      But in gw31 sell Palmer or Rogers & get Wilson if available
      Use the funds to improve squad (Dorgu out etc)

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Thanks!

  3. Dynamic Duos
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Who to bench here?

    Wirtz Semenyo Dango Rayan Bruno
    Haaland Thiago Ekitike

    Headache

    1. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Prob Rayan

  4. Freshy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Sam Smith ya butey

    1. norab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Lovely finish

      1. Freshy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        The first touch too

  5. JBG
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Will Chelsea losing do anything for fixtures?

    1. djman102
      • 16 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      They play Brighton in 34, so that game would also be on (no double for either team)

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Appreciate it.

        This might be the first season in a long while where I have no awareness of potential DGWs or BGWs. Due to it being very boring(FPL and PL).

        1. Lanley Staurel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          You having a bad FPL season then? There’s usually a correlation between people saying stuff like this and how they are doing.

        2. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          When Ben Crellin started to make spreadsheets with potential blanks and doubles, he was unable to calculate TV rights to them, but he has learned his lession. Unfortunately it wasn't this site who bought his spreadsheets and they are behind another paywall now or harder to find. So following the situation has become more difficult. Anyway we will be wiser today, both Wrexham and Magpies can shake things from the most likely outcome.

  6. JBG
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Off course it's a former Arsenal player who scores the O.G

  7. F4L
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    semenyo gets a rest

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      *good chance city do actually get knocked out here tbh

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Wrexham looks good, corner again.

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          2-1

  8. g40steve
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Wrexham boom

  9. g40steve
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    2-2

  10. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    3-2 was close, Malo Gusto and J P in. And Wrexham close to score again.

  11. F4L
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    nah thats a red card

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Stupid one.

  12. Four Letter Wirtz
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Proper Brexham tackle

  13. Sly Fly
    • 16 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Extra time. C'mon Wrexham!!

  14. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    2-2 but I can't see Wrexhan winning this with 10 men. Unless it's 2-2 after 15+15, but that's unlikely imo.

    There have been discussions whether to dead gw31, WC32, BB dgw33 (current CC template plan) or whether to dead end 32 and WC 33 and BB later. Has anyone followed which scenario would make the latter more viable?

    1. Supersonic_
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Think i will dead end 31

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        That's certainly the most obvious plan. The problem is that our current teams may have much better fixtures on gw32 compared to WC32 teams that are built for dgw33.

    2. Captain Mal
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Can't say I've been following them, but I'm - unfortunately - on a similar chip strategy. If the teams that double have a poor fixture in 32, there's no reason to WC that week.
      For example, if Leeds make the semis, Leeds and Bournemouth will double. But in 32 Leeds play at Old Trafford and Bournemouth play at Emirates. Surely you can't WC and load up on those teams.
      Same with Fulham, who play at Anfield in 32.

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        This is the issue. There is also strong possibility that there won't be obvious solution and it will be team dependant. In that case we may see both strategies used.

        Last season many wasted their FH on bgw and I was able to beat those FH teams with one good punty decision and got decent green arrow.

    3. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      I'll look at my team once GW31 is done and see how much of a mess it is and then decide

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        I think that after this round and the draw is the first time when it's really time to look at if players that are brought in need to have good gw32 fixture. After gw31 is the 2nd time to decide.

  15. Supersonic_
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    GTG here?

    Verb
    Richards Gab Senesi
    Rice Semenyo Bruno Wilson
    Ekitike Thiago Haaland

    Dub KDH Andersen Thiaw

    Not having pedro for his immense run has been annoying

  16. Mr. O'Connell
    • 13 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Is Garnacho the most likeable footballer of his generation?

    1. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      He has major endurance

  17. Mr. O'Connell
    • 13 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    What does City's imminent loss tonight mean for FPL?

  18. rokonto
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    What circumstances make Man City not have a blank 31?

  19. Dynamic Duos
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    What's everyone doing with Rogers the points dodger?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Selling the not-so-Jolly Rogers for Wirtz

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      They’re dealing with blankers initially so are probably stuck with him for a few more GWs.

      1. Freshy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Get Summerville in GW32

  20. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Trafford playing volleyball.

    1. Captain Mal
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Still better than playing beach volleyball, every nudist's favourite sport.

  21. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    FK gor Wrexham, now or never!

  22. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    So we want newcastle to win?

  23. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Barnes G

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Tonali A

  24. Qaiss
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Knew Newcastle will win this one

  25. F4L
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    ooohhh harvey barnes

  26. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Man City playing in GW31 would be very handy!

  27. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Windass?!? Is that actually real last name (in our language it means basically a who is so poor that doesn't have even trousers...)

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Comes from the olde english for he who calls forth the four winds!

  28. F4L
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    lol wrexham equaliser

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      *boo, ruled out

  29. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    3-3!!!

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Offside, I guess

  30. Albrightondknight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Wowser

    1. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Offside I would say guy on line should have left it

      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Yup

        1. The Bandit
          • 15 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          In off the post I reckon