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7 March 2026 136 comments
Lateriser 12 Lateriser 12
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In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser takes a ‘Big Numbers’-style look at some of the stand-out team and player stats ahead of Gameweek 30.

FPL 2025/26 first draft team reveals: Triple Forest, Everton + Chelsea

As we wait for the weekend’s FA Cup action and the repercussions thereafter, I thought I’d spend some time in the Members Area and point out some observations.

With many of us considering a Wildcard in Gameweek 32, it is a good time to assess how things are looking at the moment. 

TEAMS

Buy, keep or sell? FPL transfer trends ahead of Gameweek 8 3

In the last six matches, Chelsea have a staggering xG of 15.93, which is far above Liverpool and Manchester City, who sit at 11.94 and 11.67 xG, respectively. Yes, they have had a few penalties of late but their open-play xG in the same period is 11.39, with Manchester City next at 8.35.

Arsenal are 10th in the league for open play xG during this time (5.49) but are second for xG generated from set plays (4.64). This is behind only Newcastle United, who have a set play xG of 5.14 over this timeframe.

Defensively, though, Arsenal are comfortably the best in the league with an xGC of 4.64.

Crystal Palace have lost Marc Guehi (£5.2m) and have had some issues in defence but still sit among the best five teams for xGC in the last six games, alongside Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea and Man City.

The Eagles’ three goals in Gameweek 29 continued Tottenham Hotspur‘s poor defensive form. The Lilywhites sit second bottom of the xGC table and have the most goals conceded in the last six games. The other teams to target are seemingly Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United, who join Spurs in the bottom three for xGC in this period.

Brentford are a team that have slipped up defensively of late. They find themselves at the wrong end of the table for xGC in the last six games, with only six clubs faring worse.

Aston Villa’s blunt form is showcased in their numbers. Only five teams have generated less xG in the last six matches.

PLAYERS

FPL notes: “Brilliant” Rogers, Villa injuries + Bowen threat

price change predictions
136 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    Haaland TC evaporating...

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      14 days, 7 hours ago

      Blessing in disguise

    2. F4L
      • 11 Years
      14 days, 7 hours ago

      salah for old times sake 🙂

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        Might as well be Pedro

  2. Royal5
    • 14 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    Cuccurella is one of the biggest kcunts in football

  3. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 9 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    Stones struggling. That defense overall has been poor. And disjointed in attack.

  4. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    Offside rule in corner kicks should be changed. As long as the ball is in the box, offside rules are like in ice hockey.

  5. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    O,Brian fail.

    1. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      14 days, 7 hours ago

      O’Brien spell fail.

  6. Mr. O'Connell
    • 13 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    João Pedro just scored his final goal this season

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Have you finally bought him?

      If not, please give us a few more GWs...

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 13 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        Had him 10 weeks this season. Averages 3.5ppg.

        6.6ppg when I haven't owned.

        Let's see what I can do about bringing that top number down a bit. Always trolled me at Brighton & Watford when I owned too

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          14 days, 6 hours ago

          This Newcastle defence doesn't look like s bad fixture for J P. Or is this their B-team?

    2. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Your curse isn't strong enough. I really don't understand why people rushed to sell him. CC's hadn't watch him play? Have Che matches been broadcasted in UK?

      Marmoush scores!

  7. F4L
    • 11 Years
    14 days, 7 hours ago

    pedro don't blank

  8. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Savinho G
    Doku A

  9. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    How on Earth was Doku able to get that cross in? Double marked and all. Incredibly well done.

    1. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Idiotic from Sav. If I was Pep he would be getting subbed

      1. Albrightondknight
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        He isnt that good it’s lucky

        1. The Knights Template
          • 12 Years
          14 days, 6 hours ago

          I’ve always said it was just luck!

  10. Brosstan
    • 11 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Watching Athletic vs Barca. In one half there's been more exciting football than an entire PL game week even though it's 0-0. Two teams trying to play football and not afraid if that means the opposition might attack them back.

    1. Nightcrawler
      • 6 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Athletco are anything but entertaining

      1. Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        Nice comment from someone who doesn't know the difference between athletic and atletico

  11. NZREDS
    • 12 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Newcastle needed that half time, pressure starting to pile on

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      They might need another break

  12. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    I am starting to regret not getting Semenyo earlier. However, as an O'Reilly owner and Haaland seller I don't even know for sure what's the result I want from this match.

    1. Sir Michael Taker
      • 11 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      I think hes going to end up a lot deeper as the weeks go on. Too many attacking options back fit for them again. Doku if he gets back to his form pre injury is a big problem

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        Thx. That's something to consider also. Wirtz probably the priority buy now?

      2. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        14 days, 3 hours ago

        No chance, too attacking to play deep, just won’t happen.

    2. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      MCI to win so that they certainly blank vs CP gw31?

  13. Sir Michael Taker
    • 11 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    So I need to sell my keeper. Not a fan of transfers there but Dubravka could literally just score minus some weeks, hes a problem that I dont wish to ever use by choice. Bob has obviously lost his spot at the Bridge, not that I'm too disheartened as Liam does not seem to care for clean sheets either. Whats the least bad option around Bob's price plus half a million?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Sorry that I can't help. I have Kelleher who (or whose team) hasn't been at his best lately, but at least he good with pens.

    2. Dank Squid
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Tricky. Kelleher is a popular pick at the moment but Brentford defense has a tendency to enjoy the beach when the season is almost over (attack still thrives, though).

      Lammens is my "gut feel" pick.

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        For next 3 he looks good. For the rest of the season I am not so sure. Isn't Shaw injured(?)

        1. Dank Squid
          • 7 Years
          14 days, 6 hours ago

          Not sure either. Manchester United have been defending well/achieving good xGC lately but they often concede a goal or two. But they have something to play for, protecting their current rank

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      No appealing options. I’m thinking Darlow and invest the profit elsewhere

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        I have sold Haaland snd after reading the article^ I am not sure I need him. Donnarumma and Raya perhaps worth taking a look at on WC. However, having route to Haaland is a factor and Semenyo, O'Reilly and Nunes at least can be better choices.

  14. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Why Savinho prefers to let the ball bounce off his standing leg, rather than actually shoot. 😆

  15. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Pillock

  16. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    What has happened? This place had more activity when covid had stopped all games.

    1. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      It’s a dinosaur

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Extinct, fossils?

    2. NZREDS
      • 12 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      This

  17. keefy59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    If City win tonight
    Does it mean that most likely the game v Palace will be played in 33

    1. Nightcrawler
      • 6 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      not necessarily. i think burnley vs city more likely if both city and pool go through to the semis

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 6 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        making city palace more likely for 36

      2. keefy59
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        14 days, 6 hours ago

        Currently both City & Palace still in Europe
        Mid week in 33 is an European blank week

        1. Nightcrawler
          • 6 Years
          14 days, 5 hours ago

          liverpool play palace in 34, and villa in 37. the europa league final is mid 37.

          if both pool and villa are in fa cup and europa respectively by gw 32, they have to keep 36 open for villa and pool. so palace pool for 33

          1. keefy59
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            14 days, 5 hours ago

            Thanks for that
            So City hopefully should still get a double in 33 v Burnley

            1. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              14 days, 5 hours ago

              That would mean a lot of TC Haalands, but that gw is earmarked for BB also. It's a pity that saving extra transfers has been far too difficult, for me at least.

              1. Nightcrawler
                • 6 Years
                14 days, 5 hours ago

                id still prefer a week 36 tc for haaland with palace and brentford at home over arsenal and burnley

                1. Baps Hunter
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  14 days, 5 hours ago

                  I guess betting against Haaland (if fit) is too risky and he should be included in WC teams.

          2. bitm2007
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            14 days, 5 hours ago

            Villa could play Pool on the Saturday of GW37, then the EL final in midweek like Manchester United and Spurs did last year.

            1. Nightcrawler
              • 6 Years
              13 days, 20 hours ago

              not if pool win their fa cup quarterfinal. week 37 weekend is the fa cup final

  18. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Marmoush x2

    City through

  19. Nightcrawler
    • 6 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    city blank 31 confirmed pretty much. newcastle are dreadful without bruno G

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      I'd say so, we have to wait 20 minutes, but I can't see Newcastle scoring 2.

  20. Dank Squid
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Just my luck. GW 30 wildcard last season, Savinho and Marmoush. GW 34, Marmoush TC fail. Ahead of my time, should have waited

  21. NZREDS
    • 12 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    City blank GW31 it is then

    1. keefy59
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Along with Arsenal & Palace
      But with potential double gw in 33 for possibly Arsenal & City

    2. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Not 100%. Could still play Palace that GW if both are out of Europe.

  22. Dank Squid
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Haaland to Ekitike worth a free transfer? Maybe. Real Madrid, West Ham (no longer a team to target), blank vs home game vs Spurs and a fixture in 31

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Ekitike has huge haul potential home vs Spurs and is currently my C. So prolly yes.

      1. Dank Squid
        • 7 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Yeah. Survived so far, thanks to JP, but hiding behind a sofa isn't enjoyable. Bruno has been my C pick but I agree, Eki feels better

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      I'm binning.

      Haaland, Le Fee, Keane OUT
      Pedro, Palmer, van Dijk IN

      1. g40steve
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Decent upgrades

      2. NZREDS
        • 12 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Yeah that’s decent

  23. g40steve
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Who’s has better points next 2 games Haaland or Thiago?

    Other strikers Ekitike & Pedro

    1. PlayUpPompey
      • 14 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Haaland to outscore all 3.

  24. Riverside Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    What happened to Haaland, is he injured?

    1. The Night Trunker.
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 2 hours ago

      No, he always looks a pretty pale as his ice age experien demanded
      I give...up