Making a welcome return to the site, former Fantasy Premier League (FPL) champion Simon March looks back on the inaugural campaign of defensive contribution (DefCon) points.
At the beginning of the season, I was asked in my Fantasy Football Scout ‘ream reveal’ video whether I thought the introduction of defensive contribution (DefCon) points would revolutionise FPL. I said, “No, at least not this season”.
My reasoning was that FPL, as a game, has traditionally leaned toward evolution rather than revolution; the thresholds for DefCon still seemed quite high to me, and I thought that, while they would probably be a factor for us when choosing players, in the same way that bonus points potential is, it probably wouldn’t be a major factor.
Looking back on this season, it looks like I was wrong about that. DefCon has indeed revolutionised the game. Whether it is a permanent revolution, however, is a different question.
How DefCon points have changed the game
Broadly speaking, I think DefCon points have been a largely positive introduction to the game of FPL, mostly because it has widened the pool of players that we get to consider.
They certainly gave centre-backs a boost in a season when they didn’t really need one, given how much they’ve profited from the lack of goals and the significantly larger proportion of the goals that have been scored that have come from set-pieces compared to other seasons.
They’ve also made us look more closely at midfield players like Arsenal’s Declan Rice, Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson, Everton’s James Garner and Bournemouth’s Alex Scott and, while it would be very reductive to describe these as ‘DefCon players’, it can’t really be denied that DefCon points have considerably elevated their appeal as FPL assets.
The fact that this profile of player tends to play every minute of every game, will chip in with attacking returns, but can also deliver 3-4 points in what would historically have been considered a ‘blank’ performance, offers a whole new strategic dynamic, the significance of which we shouldn’t underestimate.
This season has, at times, felt like it rewarded ‘doing nothing’. The consistency of these sorts of players, combined with the increasingly ‘set-and-forget’ nature of budget ‘DefCon defenders’ such as Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi and Fulham’s Joachim Anderson, means that, provided you identify these players early enough, ‘doing nothing’ could be an equally viable strategy next season, too.
The ‘edge’ in that scenario might therefore depend on how effectively you use the surplus transfers that you accumulate. That might sound obvious, but using three or more transfers at a time, regularly, has only really emerged as a viable prospect this season. Strategically, this is very different from using one or two transfers at a time. Equally, a surplus of transfers could open up the prospect of more aggressive, more audacious moves that we might not have considered worth the risk previously.
Of course we would still attack fixture swings, chips and Double Gameweeks, but if we can regularly use 3-4 transfers at a time, strategies such as rotating triple-ups on the highest–performing teams or dynamically switching between premiums (if, indeed, there still are any next season) rather than nailing our colours to a particular one or two could be far more viable than it has been in the past. Historically. we could pull off such ‘major surgery’ moves maybe once or twice in a season, maybe only with the aid of a Wildcard. Next year, we could, potentially, pull off moves like these up to a dozen times.
But wait…
All that said, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that this season has been weirdly low-scoring in terms of goals. This won’t necessarily be the case next season. Football, as we know, is a highly dynamic sport and, as you would expect, FPL is prone to hard shifts, too. If you were to have looked at the 2012/13 season, for example, you’d think the game was largely about the ‘Number 10s’ with the likes of Juan Mata, Michu and David Silva all being high scorers. Fast forward a season to 2013/14 and it was all about Luis Suarez and central midfielders, with Yaya Toure, Aaron Ramsey and Marouane Fellaini all providing an abundant, if somewhat unexpected, source of goals and FPL points.
There is a chapter in ‘The Blind Side’ by Michael Lewis where he explains the evolving dynamics and economics in American Football that led to the left tackle becoming regularly the second-highest paid position in the NFL. Essentially, the game moved from historically running-centric to passing-centric, which elevated the value of the quarterback. That, in turn, elevated the value of the player most responsible for protecting the quarterback’s blind side: the left tackle.
In the same way, football never remains static. It evolves to protect or exploit vulnerabilities in whatever the particular trends of the time is. With that, FPL also evolves and, crucially, the value of different types of FPL assets fluctuates from season to season.
With this in mind, who’s to say that next season won’t see a return for marauding full-backs, inside forwards, number 10s, or maybe even strikers scoring goals again? DefCon, assuming they remain, will of course be a major factor going forward, but they might not be as big a factor as they currently seem.
As an unknown philosopher once said:
“Everyone loves a DefCon until Daniel Munoz smashes a 15-pointer”.
This season, in truth, has felt like a bit of a slog and a war of attrition. On an experiential level, I’m not sure I’ve enjoyed it as much as I have other FPL seasons. On an intellectual level, however, I think it has become a more interesting game and I’m already looking forward to picking my team for next season. Whereas, in the past, we’d probably look to build a squad for, say, the first six weeks, next season we might look to build a ‘spine’ in our squads, which could theoretically last for the whole campaign. In some respects, this makes the endeavour feel a bit closer to the real-world discipline of Premier League squad-building. Do it right, and it will open up a whole range of strategies for us, maybe even some completely new ones.
Good luck with the final Gameweek and enjoy the break and a rest. Or the World Cup, whichever comes first.
