Teams playing in familiar surroundings, roared on by their own fans, are likelier to perform better. This home advantage not only makes logical sense but also has strong statistical evidence.
But more specifically for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, to what extent does home advantage count? How much are goals and clean sheets biased towards home sides? And, more intriguingly, are defensive contributions (DefCon) more probable on the road?
We take a look in this article.
MATCH RESULTS
| SEASON | HOME WINS | AWAY WINS |
|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 47.6% | 33.7% |
| 2019/20 | 45.3% | 30.5% |
| 2020/21 | 37.9% | 40.3% |
| 2021/22 | 42.9% | 34.0% |
| 2022/23 | 48.4% | 28.7% |
| 2023/24 | 46.1% | 32.4% |
| 2024/25 | 40.8% | 34.7% |
| 2025/26 | 42.6% | 30.0% |
From 2018/19 onwards, home teams have an average winning rate of 44.8%, compared to 32.0% for away sides.
That doesn’t include 2020/21’s unprecedented pandemic season, where usually empty stadiums almost completely negated home advantage. In fact, visitors won more often!
Fans returning to grounds quickly restored such superiority, but the latest couple of campaigns saw it weaken again.
That being said, a vast number of 2025/26 draws (like the seven in Gameweek 19) kept away wins low, too.
GOALS + CLEAN SHEETS
| SEASON | HOME GOALS | AWAY GOALS | HOME CLEAN SHEETS | AWAY CLEAN SHEETS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 55.6% | 44.4% | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 2019/20 | 55.7% | 44.3% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 2020/21 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| 2021/22 | 53.7% | 46.3% | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 2022/23 | 57.3% | 42.7% | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 2023/24 | 54.9% | 45.1% | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 2024/25 | 51.6% | 48.4% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 2025/26 | 55.5% | 44.5% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
Our Chief Scout area helps identify some trends. For example, when removing the evened-out Covid year, hosts averaged 54.9% and 56.4% of goals and clean sheets, respectively.
But 2024/25 strangely saw visitors secure a bigger proportion of shut-outs (51.1%). Was it related to a specific tactic’s popularity?
Data before and after stays close to the average, so it’s a mere anomaly for now.
DEFENSIVE CONTRIBUTIONS
