Explain Fantasy Football to an alien, or indeed one of those football-hating folk you’re sometimes forced to sit next to at weddings, and you’ll doubtless make it sound simple.
You pick players who you think will score the most goals and assists in real life – hence you look for those who will earn you the most points.
In reality, it’s never quite that simple. Or rather, by accident or design, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is far more subtle than that.
Last weekend was one of those defining moments. It presented me with one of those hideous situations that can return to haunt you if you don’t make an effort to shut it out.
This time last week, I spent these words describing how, while I realised Christian Benteke’s potential to score points over his double Gameweek 31, I never really had the conviction to bring him in.
If things were as straightforward as selecting the players who scored the most points, I’d have been likely to trade Sergio Aguero for Benteke. As it is, blank Gameweeks and points hits become factors, along with creeping doubts that struggling big hitters can, in a heartbeat, turn their fortunes around.
It’s a similar situation seven days later.
I firmly believe that Daniel Sturridge will profit from Monday night’s meeting with a Newcastle – a side riddled with debilitating injuries and with one eye on the fairway.
Sturridge will likely break out as a sure-fire Fantasy asset, just in time to make it into our line-ups for Gameweek 34’s double. Swooping now comes with a rather large caveat, however.
Liverpool and Sturridge blank in Gameweek 33, while Sergio Aguero welcomes West Ham to the Etihad – another team who appear to be browsing the “Rough Guide to Dubai” and willing their remaining fixtures away.
The alien and the wedding guest would frown and rightly question why, when I acknowledge that Sturridge is likely to score more points, I’m even considering other options.
I could explain that I’m thinking of covering the Liverpool clean sheet with Simon Mignolet – a decent move given that I currently own the keeper at the other end of the anticipated Anfield assault, plus another who is due to face Harry Kane at the Lane.
I could go over how that allows me to “hold” Aguero for the West Ham clash, just in case he recovers in the crucial Manchester derby – giving me a viable captain option in Gameweek 33.
I could explain that having Sturridge, priced at 11.1, sitting on bench in Gameweek 33 would likely expose my squad and that having Mignolet banks me a double Gameweek 34 asset, without scuppering hopes of fielding eleven next week.
These are all the factors that swim around in our heads when assessing tweaks and transfers. They conspire to make things far more complex than simply selecting those who will score the most points in a given week.
We don’t expect folk from another planet, or indeed someone who resents Wayne Rooney’s pay packet to understand.
Sometimes we all struggle.
