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13 May 2015 26 comments
Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
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In my previous article I looked at the impact Aaron Ramsey’s return had on Arsenal attacking options. This article aims to focus on Arsenal’s attackers ahead of their double Gameweek 37 and see which ones are worthy of investment.

PLAYER OVERVIEW

Figure1

Alexis Sanchez remains the most highly owned Arsenal player in the Fantasy Premier League game with an ownership of 33.4%, whilst also being the most expensive at 11.5. His rise in popularity has come on the back of his double-figure haul against Hull in Gameweek 35 and many managers are hoping that he continues in this form. Olivier Giroud is the next most popular Arsenal player with 18.6%, a slight decrease from 20.4% ownership a month ago. Santi Cazorla and Aaron Ramsey are pretty much evenly owned at 13% and 12.7% respectively whilst Mesut Ozil continues to be a real differential at just 4.2% and could be a hidden gem for those trying to edge out rivals in their mini-leagues in the final few weeks.

ATTACKING DATA

Fig2

I have focused on this data range as it is the week Aaron Ramsey returned from injury and allows for fairer comparisons to be made.

Looking at the data above we can see that Alexis Sanchez still remains the most attacking Arsenal player, as can be seen from his goal attempts (28), shots inside the box (17) and shots on target (12) which are second to none. Sanchez has also registered the fastest minutes per chance (21.7) and the highest touches in the final third (314) whilst being the second highest for touches in the penalty area (47), falling short of team-mate Olivier Giroud (56). Further down the list, we can see that both Ramsey and Cazorla have excelled in recent weeks and they sit at second highest for chances created (13) and goal attempts (17 and 19 respectively), with Giroud being tied second for goal attempts as well. Notably, Cazorla is joint-top for minutes per touch (0.9) and second for minutes per chance (29.8), a significant improvement from his stats between Gameweeks 29-32 in my last article (1.1 and 47.5 respectively). We can also see that Ramsey has been the most involved in the Gunners’ recent goal-scoring form with 58.3% goal involvement and this could be due to a change in position which has seen the Welshman line up on the right flank of a 4-2-3-1 formation. He remains third for shots inside the box (12) and shots on target (6) whilst also remaining third for touches in the penalty area (30) and in the final third (245 ).

Interestingly, Mesut Ozil’s stats seem to have significantly decreased from last time around and, although he has registered the most chances created (20), he has the fewest goal attempts (8), shots inside the box (5) and shots on target (5), whilst also having the slowest minutes per chance (67) of the Arsenal players compared and he has contributed the least to the goals the Gunners have scored (11.1% involvement). However, his statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt as he has played fewer minutes than his team-mates.

Fig3

The data in the table above supports our initial analysis that Sanchez is the most attacking Arsenal player, boasting the highest rate of goal attempts (0.04605) and minutes per chance (21.7) whilst also being second for number of touches in the penalty area (0.07730) and final third (0.51645) per minute. Giroud’s form has regressed in recent weeks and this can be seen in his reduced rate of goal attempts compared to Gameweeks 29-32 (0.03146 vs 0.34188), with Cazorla ousting him to move into second place (0.03351). Giroud is also third for minutes per chance (31.8 vs 30.4) and last for minutes per touch (1.6 vs 1.5). All is not lost for the Frenchman, though, as he remains top for touches in the penalty area (0.09272), indicating he is seeing plenty of the ball close to the opposition’s goal.

Remarkably, Cazorla has climbed up the rankings and is top for minutes per touch (0.9) whilst also being second for chances created per minute (0.02293), goal attempts per minute (0.02293) and minutes per chance (29.8). Though his touches remain quite low, the Spanish playmaker is still an integral part of the Arsenal strike force and the stats suggest that an ‘explosion’ is imminent.

Conclusion

The burning question on every manager’s mind is ‘which three Arsenal players are worth the investment?’ It is difficult to say which combination of Arsenal players is ‘the best’ for this double but by looking at the statistics above, it is clear that Alexis Sanchez should be in everyone’s team and is arguably the best captaincy pick for the double. The next two picks should be a combination of Ramsey, Cazorla or Giroud. Ramsey’s recent upturn in form coupled with the underlying statistics suggest that he should the next player of choice to be included.

The third slot is down to one of Giroud, Ozil and Cazorla. I would not choose Ozil over the others as he does not possess the goal threat that will relate to the maximum points potential. However, the statistics suggest that he is more likely to assist one of the other players and his differential status could be appealing for managers chasing mini-leagues.

The third and final slot can go both ways but with Cazorla’s recent increase in form stats-wise, coupled with Giroud’s decline and his tendency to get substituted off early, I would be inclined to choose the Spaniard. However, having an Arsenal defender fill the third spot is a perfectly viable strategy and is one that many people are likely to adopt. In my opinion, the combination of players that will yield the greatest potential for points would have to be the trio of attacking players and we know Arsenal have the potential to score many goals, especially if they want to end the season with a bang and silence critics by finishing higher than the dreaded fourth-place position.

26 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    I have Sanchez, Ramsey and Giroud. I now wish I had Sanchez, Ramsey and Cazorla.

    Great article, thanks for submitting.

    1. Jax
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      I got all 3. go me.

    2. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Cheers Jonty for getting this out quickly! 🙂

  2. Exeter Gently
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    interesting stats. not so sure about giroud now but unwilling to lose him. he should be among the points v sunderland unless the black cats perform another great escape

  3. SGTMacaroni
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Great article, full of information!

    For me, I already have Sanchez and Giroud and I've got to make a decision between Ramsey/Ozil/Caz

    The way i see it:

    Ozil - Biggest assist potential/lower goal threat
    Ramsey - Goal/assist threat/risk of rotation
    Caz - On penos+good last game/plays deeper

    Honestly I think all the stats tell you us that its going to be a coin flip in the end!

  4. Hibbopotamus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks for this. It's between Ramsey and Cazorla for me (alongside Alexis and Ospina), and this makes it tough. Ramsey's been more clinical, but as you said, it looks like Caz's underlying stats are right there, plus he has pens should it ever come to that. Tough one for sure.

  5. Kings of Lyon ★
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Good read.

    I have Özil Sanchez and Giroud wish I had Sanchez Ramsey and Cazorla.

  6. tm245
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Nice article. As a chaser I went Giroud Ozil Cazorla but I think your conclusion is pretty spot on.

  7. AIRMILES
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Defoe, Cisse or N'Doye as a bench player for the final two weeks?

  8. Gideons Rolling Another One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    That's making me regret my Ozil move last week! May swop to Ramsey. He saved my bacon at the end of last season. But will he play the full 180? I'm certain Ozil will. He is after all, as Wenger puts it, Arsenals Fabragas!

  9. bibi
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Big fan of your articles...

    I think Giroud's lack of returns have something to do with Rambo's tendency to finish the play and the lad is often more advanced than any player...i'm not sure if wenger will play welbeck and drop rambo to play alongside caz, or simply replace giroud...wilshere seems eager to play, not to mention walcott is fit, so many attacking options. If it was a few weeks back I would pick an Ars defender but now that ManU and Sunderland have huge incentives to win, I agree it maybe wise to focus on the attacking options.I would probably pick giroud, sanchez and caz

  10. Ruth_NZ
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Your article would be spot on if we were looking at which players to have for a 12-game stretch. But we aren't. We are looking at 3 games.

    Over 3 games "luck" will play a big part and there are less games for that effect to even out. None of the players are so far apart in capability or stats that (a) they aren't capable of a haul, and (b) they aren't capable of blanking. Sanchez - who everyone seems to consider a "must" - has blanked in 8 of his last 11 games and 3 of his last 4 (PL).

    I think it's better to look at who you are happiest to remove from your squad and to select the Arsenal player(s) that fit best rather than worrying (even taking unnecessary hits) about the "ideal" three. The only exception I would make is Sanchez for those defending a position - simply because Sanchez already had 75% ownership in the top 10k in GW36 and will be the big captain punt in GW37.

    That apart it's more or less a lottery and there's no point pretending otherwise.

    1. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Whether we are looking at 12 games or 3 games it makes no difference. Statistics are a general indication of a players form and how likely they are to achieve certain events such as scoring or assisting a goal etc. Many people, such as myself, like to look at past data as it helps them formulate a strategy and make a decision. Of course that's not to say that stats alone can help you make the correct choice every time and randomness will always play its part in this game. What you're saying though is that we should completely ignore statistics as 'it's more or less a lottery' who does well. If you go by that reasoning then you might as well pick random players without ever considering any sort of statistical data.

      I enjoy writing articles for the community that gives readers an analytical viewpoint to consider for situations such as this one. From what I have seen/read you are generally a good poster and I enjoy discussing topics on these forums but the way in which you voice your indifference in opinion comes across as very arrogant and somewhat condescending. Believe it or not, you aren't always right!

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 7 months ago

        "...the way in which you voice your indifference in opinion comes across as very arrogant and somewhat condescending..."

        You can read it that way. It isn't meant to be read that way. I can't see how I should express a fundamental doubt about the usefulness of your analysis in any more courteous a way than I did.

        "What you're saying though is that we should completely ignore statistics as 'it's more or less a lottery' who does well. If you go by that reasoning then you might as well pick random players without ever considering any sort of statistical data."

        No, that's not it at all. I'm saying that when you are looking at players of the same team, with the same fixtures and with pretty similar stats and capabilities then predicting which will score best over a very short (3 game) period is haphazard because a lot depends on the detail of those games. Will there be a penalty awarded? On what side of the goal will the attacking freekicks be?

        Adding together "chances created" and "shots in the box" from your tables:

        Sanchez: 26
        Ramsey: 25
        Ozil: 26
        Giroud: 22
        Cazorla: 24

        These numbers are so close that over a 3-game period trying to use such stats to pick between them is a lottery. I think this is a point worth making because many are talking about the "ideal" combination when, in my opinion, that ideal combination cannot possibly be identified until after the event. Not in this case.

        No discourtesy intended.

      2. Captain Peacock
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 6 months ago

        Jaffa, I love the article and I'm glad you've written it, but Ruth is clearly just offering a response as he sees it. Coming in as a neutral I don't think it's arrogant and he makes a valid point.

      3. MRCONTE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 6 months ago

        Great works Jaffalicious!! It helps me much (as it surely helps many other members too).

    2. iCon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 7 months ago

      Struth Ruth!

      With this type of response why would anyone bother to write an article? Personally I've seen so many people on FFS, over the last few days, asking the very questions that this article tries to answer and personally, I think it will be much appreciated by those very people (i.e. members of our community).

      By all means express your opinion but I just don't see the need to make your post so dismissive to the point of being antagonistic...

  11. The Orienteer - find me in …
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Great stuff - much appreciated.

  12. HVT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 7 months ago

    Great article Jaffa, if I were picking right now I'd be :
    Sanchez/Ramsey with
    Caz or Kos
    Thanks for your hard work, top stuff for sure.

    • 12 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    Great article Jaffa, I'm on Sanchez, Ramsey & Giroud myself, but I choosing fresh I'd take Koscielny over Giroud and I do think many people are overlooking Arsenal's defence at their peril.

    Also I'd like to get your take on a returning Welbeck who could eat into Giroud's minutes.

  13. bennyp
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    Hendo -> Gomez worth?

  14. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    Top effort Jaffa - thanks for putting in all the hard work. Great read.

  15. MJ6987
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    Great article as ever Jaffa. Hope to see more of these on key teams / players next season!

  16. Marshall692005
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    Lads need help.

    Currently Top of Mini League need help upfront.

    Options : Giroud , Sanchez, Aguero & Kane.

    Only 3 allowed. If I go with both Arsenal players I need to transfer either Cazorla or Ospina out.

    Help me out guys.

    1. Captain Peacock
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 6 months ago

      Not donkey

  17. Captain Peacock
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 6 months ago

    This article makes me feel fantastic! Had Ramsey and Alexis coming into the week, and I picked up Caz after looking at goal threat and chances created because he's a true dual threat in that regard. These advanced stats seem to vindicate the decisions I've made. Hopefully the football does too.

    Thanks for making the article!