With the penultimate week of the season fast approaching, and indeed the last double Gameweek of the campaign, the question on everyone’s minds is… Which Arsenal players should I get in?
Rotation is a worry, and the minutes of all the Arsenal assets are at risk, with fringe players such as Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck chomping at the bit to make their mark.
What I vote for, however, is a logical way of looking at the players. If all Arsenal assets are at risk, why worry about which ones may/may not play? Let’s try and determine who is the most likely candidate to rack up the points over the double Gameweek. Alexis Sanchez is, without a doubt, the best option due to his Fantasy Premier League FPL) points tally this year and his ability to deliver explosive returns. But who else in the centre of the park should we be considering?
Similar to an article I posted a few months ago, I will break down three of the Arsenal midfield’s ‘likely lads’. Hopefully, this will help anyone that is deliberating which midfielder to go for. The three categories I will be considering are: Goal Threat, Assist Potential and Form. All stats will be relevant for the last six matches.
Goal Threat
As you may have heard from the latest Scoutcast, Jonty has been creating tables and analysing the stats to try and work out who is the most likely player to score goals during the double Gameweek. With Sanchez sitting top of all midfielders for shots inside the box over the last six, it may surprise you to learn that just below him, sits the diminutive figure of Santi Cazorla. In fact, Cazorla has produced only one shot in the box fewer than Sanchez over this period. Aaron Ramsey also fares well on this list, sitting seventh overall for midfielders.
Worryingly for Mesut Ozil owners, the German has produced half as many shots in the box as Ramsey over the last six and only a third as many as Sanchez and Cazorla. Clearly, Ozil is not one for receiving balls in the box and shooting.
Interestingly, when we look at touches in the box (again Sanchez leads the way out of the Arsenal midfield) there is not a lot of difference between Cazorla, Ramsey and Ozil, and all three midfielders have a respectable position on the table. What we can gather from this is that of these players, although all three are getting the ball in the box with some regularity, it is predominantly Ramsey and particularly Cazorla who are going for goal. Ramsey has had more success than Cazorla (with two goals to none), but the stats suggest it is Cazorla who is primed to leave his mark. With penalties in his locker, a goal or two from Cazorla looks very likely.
Winner: Cazorla
Assist Potential
Assist potential should not be ignored in FPL, and noticing players who take corners, free kicks and regularly tee up their team mates can really help boost your rank during the season. With a midfield such as Arsenal’s, where seemingly anyone can score, having a player who is responsible for setting up his team-mates could be a good way to go in this double Gameweek.
Some interesting names head up the ‘chances created’ column in the members section. Leicester’s Marc Albrighton leads the way with 19 chances created, which averages out at over three chances a game. A number of players sit just below him, with one fewer chance created, and importantly for Fantasy managers one of these names is Ozil. Ozil boasts a superior pass completion to the rest of his teammates (good for BPS), the highest creativity score in ICT by a country mile compared to the rest of his team mates and a decent successful corner statistic (just under 50%). However, where it matters, Ozil has not registered a single assist over this period. Clearly, poor finishing has cost Ozil points and, more than likely, a place in a lot of peoples teams.
Cazorla is second of the three, and has created half as many chances as Ozil over the last six. Ramsey is even further down the list, having created two chances fewer than Cazorla. Cazorla does occasionally take corners, boosting his appeal, but with a conversion rate of 33%, Ozil is clearly doing a better job.
Winner: Ozil
Form
Ramsey 2, 9, 11, 2, 12, 2 = 38 (3 goals, 2 assists)
Ozil 3, 10, 3, 3, 2, 2 = 23 (1 goal, 0 assists)
Cazorla 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 2= 21 (0 goals, 1 assist)
As with the other two categories, there is a stand-out winner here. Ramsey may not have the best attacking stats of the three players, but he has been delivering more-than-solid points returns, with three goals in his last six matches showing he is a midfielder who is taking his chances. Despite both Ozil and Cazorla creating more chances for team-mates, it is Ramsey who has benefited from better finishing, although this trend may not continue – especially due to the number of chances Ozil is creating, which will (surely) lead to returns.
However, goals and assists breed confidence, both in the player and the manager. On the back of this current form, can Ramsey really be afforded a rest while third place is still up in the air? He seems to have hit a purple patch at the perfect time.
Winner: Ramsey
Conclusion
Hopefully some of the stats I have presented here will give you a better indication of which of these midfielders are likely to score points. In my opinion, Ramsey has decent stats for both goal threat and assist potential, and while not excelling in either, he has the form to indicate that he (and others) can make the most of what he conjures up. For me he is the stand-out choice to go alongside Sanchez, or even replace him.
In second place, Cazorla’s underlying attacking stats lead me to believe he is a better choice than Ozil. His penalty duties, combined with the fact that he shares corners with the German, indicates that he is likely to be in the points over the coming weeks. In fact, his attacking stats rival those of Sanchez and the Spaniard may prove to be a shrewd transfer for Fantasy managers to go alongside the Chilean, or even instead of him. Ozil looks set for a double Gameweek of mediocrity, unless someone can start putting away his chances. I would rather take a gamble on someone who is in control of their own destiny.
