We continue our pre-season coverage with the introduction of our “Great Expectations” series.
These articles pick out a list of candidates who we believe have the potential to build on their progress from previous seasons, cementing themselves as key Fantasy assets.
We begin the series by presenting the case for Southampton’s Sadio Mane – a player who delivered 11 goals in his debut season, including the most explosive hat-trick in Premier League history.
The winger arrived at St Mary’s from Red Bull Salzburg last summer during a period of mass restructuring under new boss Ronald Koeman. Mane rolled up on the back of an extraordinary couple of seasons, where he produced 45 goals and 32 assists in 87 appearances across all competitions for the Austrian outfit.
Handed a starting price of 7.0 in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, Mane swiftly established himself as one to watch, bagging two goals and an assist in his first four starts. Beyond this instant flurry of activity, the fleet-footed winger drew blanks in his subsequent seven appearances, before reaffirming his potential with goals in three successive outings.
Mane was then ruled out of the African Cup of Nations after sustaining a calf complaint at the turn of the year. The Saints new boy then netted in his first start upon recovering but struggled to rediscover his form, only mustering a further two goals in the following 12 Gameweeks. His season-defining moment arrived in the Saints’ penultimate match of the season, in which he recorded the fastest-ever Premier League hat-trick – taking his tally to 11 goals for the campaign.
Key Factors
- Mane registered just 24 starts throughout the season, as he took time to settle under Koeman. A couple of displays of ill discipline further served to diminish his Fantasy potential: the first case saw him dropped for Saints’ 2-0 home defeat to Liverpool in Gameweek 26 after turning up late to the stadium, while the second incident saw him reprimanded for attempting to take a spot-kick over designated penalty taker James Ward-Prowse during their 2-0 win over Hull City in Gameweek 32. Nonetheless, having started in 11 of the final 12 Gameweeks – compared to 13 starts in the first 26 matches – he looks to have finally cemented that wide berth for next season. To that end, Koeman recently heaped praise on Mane, talking up his prospects for the campaign ahead:
“I can’t see any players in the league who have the same speed as Sadio. I have always asked him to use that speed and use that movement, and the rest of the players know that is his quality. There is an understanding and that understanding was fantastic. He is a great young player who will be even better next season.”
- Mane ended the season with 137 points to his name over a total of 30 league outings – an average of 4.6 points per appearance. Delving deeper into the data, though, the Senegal international served up an impressive average of 5.3 points per start for the Saints – greater than the likes of other mid-price options such as Gylfi Sigurdsson (4.8) and Jordan Henderson (4.5). Indeed, given that the top three midfielders Eden Hazard (6.1), Alexis Sanchez (6.1) and David Silva (6.0) weren’t too far ahead, Mane could be set to offer excellent value if, as expected, he can cement a regular role next term.
- This brings us neatly onto the discussion of Mane’s likely price tag next season. Having ultimately finished 2014/15 some 97 points behind Hazard at the top of the midfield standings, he looks poised to remain in the mid-price bracket for the campaign ahead. Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen started last term at 8.0 after registering 132 points in his first season under Pochettino and we can expect Mane to be similarly priced in the 8.0 to 8.5 bracket. Given his potential to comfortably return double figure goal returns, that valuation should guarantee that he remains very much “alive” as a key asset in our seasons.
- Mane boasts the sixth-best goal conversion rate (18.3%) among those midfielders who scored at least five times last term, with Silva and Hazard on 18.2% and 17.9% respectively. Encouragingly, this same quality is made manifest by his minutes per goal figure (204.3), which places him second – behind Arsenal’s Sanchez (192.4) – among those midfielders who clocked over 1500 minutes. Providing he earns greater pitch time, then, his points potential looks strong.
- In terms of evaluating the choice route into Southampton’s attack, Mane arguably presents a stronger case than top scorer Graziano Pelle. Despite playing 1149 fewer minutes, the Senegal international netted just one less goal than the Italian and his above-mentioned conversion rate is not far off double Pelle’s 9.8%. Moreover, Mane’s pace has seen Koeman field him centrally and his eye for goal could thrive further if he’s handed a chance to solve his side’s scoring problems through the middle.
