Can bookies odds be used as tool for Fantasy Football managers? My heavily discussed Gameweek 3 article on how the bookies interpreted that week’s match-ups saw some good comments being brought forward on this issue. As a result of that debate and to avoid any confusion, I will focus on my verdict on how the bookies looked at each game. Please note this replaces the Bookies verdict & FPL verdict sections in previous articles in this series. I hope that now clears things up.

With Gameweek 3 over its time to take a look at the results in the light of the bookies’ decisions going into each match.

Gameweek 3 Matches

Manchester United vs Newcastle United 0-0

The early kick-off saw Manchester United as home favourites with no chance given to Newcastle, however no goals came. Wayne Rooney and Memphis Depay both blanked much to the frustration of their managers although Rooney had a goal wrongly disallowed.

YMA verdict: 2-0 – the disallowed goal proved costly for the result in this one.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa 2-1

Odds-on home favourites Palace took 45 minutes to get going and Pardew’s subs proved the difference. Villa’s Rudy Gestede was a handful and Leandro Bacuna made five tackles and four interceptions, Clark also looked good with three interceptions and eight clearances.

YMA verdict: My interpretation of the bookies’ odds made me put this game down as 2-1. I got this one spot on!

Leicester vs Tottenham 1-1

The bookies’ odds suggested this would be a high-scoring game from both sides as both teams created plenty of chances. Leicester had 13 shots vs Tottenham’s 19 shots. Riyad Mahrez scoring six in his last six Premier League games continued his fine start to the season.

YMA verdict: My bookies-influenced prediction was 2-2. I got the draw right but not quite the score – close.

Norwich vs Stoke 1-1

There were some decent stats from this closely fought game:

• Brady created more goalscoring chances than any other Premier League player today with six.
• Redmond has had a hand in 10 goals in his last eight league games – five goals, five assists.
• Since the start of last season no player has netted more headed goals than Diouf with five

YMA verdict: Prediction of 2-1 Stoke came closest to fruition, with the bookies’ odds suggesting it was wise to keep away from both sets of defences. This proved a shrewd move.

Sunderland vs Swansea 1-1

I predicted an away Swansea victory based on the bookies’ odds. Looking at the stats available I’m not quite sure how they didn’t. The home side managed to draw despite having just two shots on target to Swansea’s nine and the Black Cats are winless in the last 18 Premier League games in which they have conceded the opening goal.

YMA verdict – harsh one to take, Swansea should have won; Costel Pantillimon was huge for Sunderland.

West Ham vs Bournemouth 3-4

Bournemouth earned their first victory this season thanks to Wilson’s hat trick and West Ham’s horrendous defending. Callum Wilson has scored 15 away goals which is more than any other player in the top four tiers since the start of last season. As a counter to this, the Cherries have won 17 penalties since the start of last season; three more than any other club in the top four tiers.

YMA verdict: I did caution investment in defences for this game, but predicted a low-scoring draw. Hands up, I got this horrendously wrong.

West Brom vs Chelsea 2-3

John Terry was sent off in an entertaining affair at the Hawthorns and Pedro marked his debut with a goal and an assist. This was also the first time West Brom’s James Morrison has scored twice in a Premier League game. Both teams had 15 shots, with six on target for West Brom and five on target for Chelsea. Meanwhile, Eden Hazard notched his first assist; with his stats on the upturn, owners may wish to keep him for the time being.

YMA verdict: I had the game as a 2-0 victory. John Terry’s sending off changed the game and Chelsea’s defence still looks leaky.

Everton vs Manchester City 0-2

I should have listened to my own advice ‘Kolarov with 108 passes of which 40 have been in the final third’ but I didn’t. Alexsander Kolarov re-paid his owners with a fine performance whereas Sergio Aguero blanked. City had 16 shots with nine on target, whereas Everton had 10 shots with only one on target.

YMA verdict: I had this down as a 2-1 City victory based on bookies’ odds. It was the right result but wrong scoreline.

Watford vs Southamption 0-0

All the stats seemed to suggest a high-scoring game but the complete opposite happened. Watford failed to have a shot on target in this match, with all 13 of their efforts being blocked or off target. The Saints have won just one of their last nine Premier League games (W1 D3 L5) but this was their first clean sheet in that run.

YMA verdict: My prediction of a 2-2 draw was a poor result here for my bookies-based prediction.

Arsenal vs Liverpool 0-0

Before the game, Arsenal had 42 shots on goal with only two goals to show for it and this trend continued on Monday night where Arsenal had 19 shots with only five on target compared with Liverpool, who had 15 shots with eight on target, with an inspired Cech keeping them at bay. This was the first game since April 2012 where both Arsenal’s first choice centre-backs Per Mertesecker and Laurent Koscielny were absent, read into that what you will. A worrying statistic for me is that Arsenal have now failed to score in five of their last six home games.

YMA verdict: 3-1 was just clearly wrong.

Captaincy success

Gameweek 3 – only five out of the top 14 captaincy options delivered points this week.

Rooney 17.9% X
Aguero 15.0% X
Hazard 12.2% ✓
Kane 6.3% X
Depay 5.4% X
Benteke 5.0% X
Costa 3.4% ✓
Gomis 3.1% ✓
Yaya Touré 2.7% ✓
Silva 2.2% X
Sanchez 1.9% X
Pelle 1.9% X
Kompany 1.8% ✓
Lukaku 1.5% X

Other 19.7%

Conclusion

I think there’s some encouraging results here, if the scoreline was wrong, generally the result was correct in some matches compared with my interpretation of the bookies’ odds. Again the sample size is small but things shall become a lot clearer as the Gameweeks continue. Interestingly, eight out of the 10 teams who were the most likely to not keep a clean sheet did concede so I do believe at this early stage, clean sheet odds could be used as a tool for Fantasy Managers.

Note: Future Pre-Gameweek articles in this What the Bookies Say series will have the weekend’s clean sheet odds such as this and every post-Gameweek results article will have the captaincy success run through which you can see above in this article. All feedback welcome.