We delve into the data over the past four rounds of fixtures this evening and roll out the first in a three-part series looking at the players by position. First up, then, it’s the defenders, with West Ham, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Spurs and Watford’s left-backs all catching the eye, whilst Palace’s goal-getting centre-half and Everton’s lack of resilience are also amongst our Wednesday night analysis.
Chile XI: Bravo; Silva, Medel, Jara; Isla, Fernández, Vidal, Beausejour; Valdivia, Sánchez, Vargas
Medel is shite.
Still a damn sight better than Jara
😯 I thought he was pretty damn good tbh.
What would a non-member know... 😉
How to love.
Like the grav btw, top notch film 😉
Been amazing for inter so far this season
Medel is a beast and does his job.
#Argentina: Romero // Roncaglia, Otamendi, Funes Mori, Rojo // Biglia, Mascherano, Banega // Di María, Higuaín y Lavezzi.
#Argentina: Rulli // Peruzzi, Garay, Demichelis, Zabaleta // Enzo Perez, Pastore, Pereyra // Messi, Aguero, Tevez
Who wins?
Payet -> Ozil tonight before Ozil's rise? Impossible to get Aguero down the line if i miss that 0.1...
Yes
How can 0.1 make it impossible... Just makes it a bit trickier, Shirley
embarrassingly not i'm afraid Limpar. Would leave the exact cash (next week) for:
Kolorov -> Bennett (cheapest in the game)
Pelle -> AgueroI see. An Aguero plan.
Well I'd do it then. Ozil isn't playing the Germany friendliest so you should be fine.Cheers dude. Fingers crossed
Do it
It won't be impossible...
huge numbers as always
On the theme on numbers, this is very very interesting: http://dannypage.github.io/lookup.html
Especially when using the long term xG simulator.
Very interesting thanks, I presume the higher the final number, the higher the chance of said player scoring?
Lukaku next week is interesting 😕
How this sound?
My defence needs some work - Francis, Richards and Cedric 🙁 but thinking of using my 2 FTs for other, hopefully bigger things:
McCarthy > Hennessy and play (as my other goalie is Myhill) and Payet > Özil
GW13 defence = Kolarov (LIV), Toby (WHU) and Cedric (STK) with Richards 1st sub.
This leaves me with enough to do Pelle > Agüero.
Any suggestions most welcome ThanksWhat does everyone's backline look like?
Kolarov/ Cedric/ Souaré/ Nyom/ Simpson
Slightly worried about Cedric but I've had injuries to sort out 😕It will look like.. Bellerin Baines Moreno Rose VDV...as the money builds...
I miss VDV and his paper hamstrings 🙁
Very expensive defence but I suppose this year allows it with players such as Mahrez and VardyAnd if you built enough money to be able to afford an alternative to Rose, Wakey?
Well the other ones are Dann, Otamendi...
Kola, azpi, bertie, Williams, Simpson
Sagna, VvD, Ward, Janmaat and Dawson I think.
Kolarov, Bellerin, Dawson, Moreno. Evans to Simpson transfer on the decks for this GW
Rubbish!
Kos, Azpi 🙁 , Souare, Alder, Francis.
WC after next GW. Probably will ship the lot, except perhaps Kos.Souare might be a very nice pick behind Bolasie...they play well together...
Azpil, Rojo, Monreal, VvD, Ward.
Bellerin/Fonte/Francis/Moreno/Prödl (To be turned into Dann)
Coleman, Dawson, Cedric, Moreno, Rojo
Koscielny - Kolarov - Coleman - VvD - Francis
Thinking of this in 2 weeks:
Koscielny - Bertrand - Rose - Moreno - 4.0
Bellerin VVD Dawson Francis Prodl. 1FT to use.
Loving the big numbers as always....Some good picks there for those of us who refuse to pick boring WBA defenders...
I got back to back treble clean sheets, wasn't boring at all 😉
I just can't be doing with it...I know they're good for FPL pts but i's sooner have attacking full backs and fail than watch that rubbish...
Temporary optimism kicking in as always:
Ireland sneaky 1-0 win tomorrow night 😎In hindsight I'd take a draw then hopefully do them back here!
Once we get through 😕 hope Dzeko and Pjanic are kept under a tight leashYeah, I'm fearful but hopeful at the same time. Glenn Shetland to keep Pjanic in his pocket (I really hope he doesn't start him!)
Shane Long big loss. Do we know the situation re O'Shea yet?
I'd def take a draw.
What do key passes represent?
Chances created by a player
Passes that lead to a chance on goal, I believe
Key Pass
The final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball having an attempt at goal without scoring.So chances created minus assists?
😆
Uruguay missing Suarez. 10 mins left vs Ecuador down 2-1
Uruguay will win
sure...
I love this site! 😀
Go drunk, you're home.
TM - you're the best mod imo.
You're really drunk now.
Honestly!
Yeah, you're definitely drunk.
😉
Looks like the international break is starting to slow things down.
You're my fave
Will enjoy the channel surfing between the Chile/Colombia and Argentina/Brazil games.
I am just going to watch you
This place gets creepy around international time..
The bushes outside your place are sooooo comfortable.
Come over here, I found a better one.. 😈
Aww, that means I have to get out of your shower and climb back outside.
Just don't climb into his hamper as I want to be left alone!
Balls, that's the cosiest spot.
I've found the comfiest of spots... I am at one with nature..
It feels like the inside of a turtle's shell had it's own hammock, and it's constantly Friday...
...Yep this is definitely my favourite bush. You're missing out.*Takes bush and leaves to live a life of contentment*
😆
Is the Argentina vs Brazil game on tv ?
On mine it is. Suspended game now.
Cheers that's disappointing
Popular player options ranked for GW13's specific fixtures:
Kane: 17.40
Ozil: 15.65
Vardy: 14.63
Giroud: 12.31
Lukaku: 11.27
.
.
Mane: 8.37
Sanchez: 7.84
.
.
.
Pelle: 2.679
Based on a statistical model, so its not perfect. 🙂
Thoughts on the ranking?Statistically speaking, spot on tbh
Great. 🙂
What's the model based on?
It only takes into account the last 4 GWs to try and capture players' most recent form.
There are 3 main components. The first tries to account for goal threat in the form of Shots of the player VS the Shots conceded by an opponent. (Measured by ShotsInBox of player & ShotsInBoxConceded of opponent). This is then appropriated by the player's ShotOnTarget% to make it a better reflection of goal potential (You ain't scoring if you don't hit the target!). Which is the reason why Pelle does so badly under this.
2nd also accounts for goal threat but more in the way of quality chances received in Big Chances, and the 3rd accounts for assist potential with Key passes/Chances created.
Each component is weighted, the first 55%, the 2nd 30%, and the 3rd 15%. So I was actually quite surprised to see Ozil up so high considering he relies mainly on assist potential.Sounds very good!
Cheers. There's a little more depth to it regarding the 2nd component, but I'll leave that explanation for another time. 😉
Only came up with it last weekend, so hopefully I can fine-tune it over the next couple of weeks and start releasing scores provided I have some success with the model.
When I have more time I'm hoping to create a fixture ticker of sorts for each player(just the popular ones), for their next 8 or 10 fixtures using these scores. Will have its own set of limitations but thought it'd be pretty interesting.
you do that. interested in this model
The on,y thing maybe missing (or might not be) is whether a team is home or away which over the course of a season makes quite a difference I think. Compare bookie odds home versus away for example.
*only
Yes, I agree, that's something I was strongly considering. Thought it would make it a better reflection of a player's single GW's prospects.
However, the problem I thought with that was that I would have to stretch the sample size past the most recent 4GWs to about 8 GWs, and considering its only been 12GWs so far, that's quite a while ago.
Might give it a whirl anyway and see how it goes. 🙂
Thank youOr you could keep it to 4 GWs (better indication of recent form) but apply a home fixture multiplier. Ideally you would have to work out this by looking at average scores for top scoring FPL players home vs away for, say, last season
Nice. Do you have any numbers for midfielders?
For example Deulofeu, Lanzini, Wijnaldum, BolasieNo, sorry. Just evaluated the week's top options. 🙂 I could calculate them, but it takes time which I don't have much of right now. 😉
Right. Now as you explained everything I may count it by myself 🙂
Surprised lukaku is so far behind kane
Kane's superior Shot accuracy coupled with with West Ham's high Big Chance Goal Conceding % has really helped his score this week.
Villa's defence really isn't as bad as it seemsVilla looked a lot better than I thought against City. Maybe the new manager effect as well.
How does mahrez score?
RMT anyone? 🙂
De Gea (Hennessey)
Bellerin Moreno Otamendi (Simpson Bennett)
Mane Ozil Silva Mahrez (Lingard)
Giroud Kane Lukaku
0.6 itbShould I be worried that it looks unlikely I'll be able to afford Aguero (not as fussed about Sanchez)
7/10
There are few doubts: Bellerin, Silva or Mane. Without them you're doomed.Thanks. I think they'll be alright. Dont think Silva will start though :/
Predictions for Argentina - Brazil?
I predict 3-2 Brazil win.6-6
6-9
Arg 3-1 Bra
1-1
6 multiplied by 3.
0-0
Anyone think Costa is going to do much in the next game vs Norwich ?
I'm tempted. Will see how he plays against England
True yea
They've sunk so low I didn't even realise they had such a good fixture...well good if it was last year...
Dark Red in the ticker this year.
Nor Bou Sun and Wat at home in the next four and nobody gives a monkey's...may well be a big diff or two there...
I've actually considered selling Costa regardless of the fixtures.
He's playing kak....Surely they'll get a goal or three in those games though...
Agreed, he's woeful. You'd think that, but it has started to become one giant farce. The question now is not about when, but will they turn it around? Little to suggest it so far!
It's shocking really...World class players reduced to a mess..I'd love to know what's going on
As would I, Wakey. I think there have been falling outs left, right and centre, but possibly from before the season started.
I've gone Azpi and Pedro.
Go big or go home.
Consideinf Chelsea's current situation, I think it will take a game or two for him to get going properly. Fixtures are juicy, though.
Where can you see current net transfers for players?
FPL site.
.Is that Transfers Out (Round)?
Transfers In (Round) - Transfers Out (Round)
Thanks 🙂
Re post:
2FTs and 2.8itb
Hennessy/gomes
Bellerin*/simpson/Rojo/van dijk/moreno
Mane*/payet*/sanchez/Kdb/Mahrez
Vardy*/pelle/ighalo
...should I do payet to Ozil now before Ozil goes up in price or wait? What would you do?Have your exact front 8 and I'm holding for now. What's your Aguero plan?
I did Payet to Lingard (punt or bench) and will do Pelle to Aguero
I'm 0.1 off deulofeu and kun for pelle and payet, so I'll probably do pelle and mane to kun and a mid around 5mill (useful for the Christmas period)
do it...you might as well cash in on the price rise.
I wonder what Aguero's price/goal ratio is compared to the likes of Kane? You'd think that would be an easy way of deciding who to prioritise. How many goals they've scored in the last two seasons vs. their current price. Or is it not that simple?
Together with fixtures and price, not a bad way
If on a very strict budget, then yes. But when you have great cheap mid options, it really becomes about the combined price of both Kun and that mid vs Kane and a more expensive mid.
You'd have to know in advance how many goals both are going to score for the current season, so only when the season is finished will we truly know who was more valuable
But if you consider the ownership Aguero will have and the reliability as (C) that is also a big factor
With the likes of Vardy and Mahrez as such cheap options this year, I personally don't think there's any excuse not to have the best striker in the PL for the most attacking side. I won't have him for the Liverpool game, but perhaps after that depending on how well he comes back fitness-wise
http://fantasy.premierleague.com/stats/elements/?element_filter=0&stat_filter=value_season
(Best value points/price)
Kane 5.8
Aguero 3.4
Bear in mind
Ighalo (1st) 12.5
Vardy (2nd) 11.8
Argentina vs Brazil postponed: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTpXM7BUAAEbhX8.jpg:large
In Ireland we call that a light shower 🙄
Bunch of softies 🙂
barely spitting compared to Lancashire..
Because its too sunny or what?
Good night lads. Hoping this international break will get over soon! 🙂
I give it about 9 days or so
This break is the worst part of FPL
Ah it isn't so bad 🙂
I think you're drunk.
I wish.
So how's your season going so far?
Rubbish 🙂 But that happens, have had a bad few weeks which dragged me down a good deal.
I see yours is going pretty well, definitely a good place to be in this early!I guess. But I just can't seem to find the right balance between the players I want and the FFscout template. Red arrows for 3 consecutive weeks. Just did Payet to lanzini and now regretting it.
I wouldn't regret it, I possibly will get him as well (not fully decided yet).
You'll get there, bit of a weird season with a lot of the really big players failing to make a mark.Very true. Very weird season.
What's your move on aguero? Shipping him in this week or waiting?
I'm definitely waiting.I'm possibly taking a few hits this week to sort out my entire team. I'm tempted by him, as Lovren + Skrtel is not a great pairing for Liverpool. But it would require selling Costa, who has been terrible but has a much nicer fixture. I'll probably give it until after the break to see how things are shaping up.
Personally waiting 1 week, have exact cash for Pelle > Sergio but I'm in no rush!
(Srry to barge in on convo)Good decision. Kun will take a game or 2 to get back to his old self. But then again, it's Kun!
Always welcome! Same mindset as mine. Not enough cash and really wanna wait and see kun for one gw.
No worries at all HVT, happy to have opinions on it!
🙂
Full time
Ecuador 2 - Uruguay 1
Which one do I keep: Kolarov or Williams?
The very fact you have to ask this means you are not worthy of having King Aleksandar in your team.
King Kola has been returning many low scores of late, and the devious frenchman gives him rotation worries
Tasty CS at the weekend, no?
I do understand though, I lost Williams a while back because Swansea were so poor. I'd be surprised if Kola loses his place to Clichy any time soon. At least in the league anyway.
Kola of kourse!
Kola,
Swansea can't keep CSKolarov. Swansea are shite at the moment.
Neither...dump them both...
Will do eventually probably
Kolarov if you have to
Kolarov. 1,000,000%.
Myhill, McCarthy
Kola, VVD, Darmian, Richards, Simpson
KDB, Mahrez, Sanchez, Yaya, Payet ❗
Ighalo, Pelle, Vardy ❗
1 FT, 3.0 ITB
Best move,
A. Payet ➡ Özil (before tonite price changes, or Friday 20)
B. Pelle ➡ Lukaku
C. Darmian ➡ Bellerin/Rojo/Moreno
D. other?
A
now or wait?
How do you do the exclamation marks and arrows?
Btw nice plan, get Ozil now and Bellerin if he's all fit and ableCheers!
“:“ + “arrow“ + “:“
for further detail:
codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies➡
wait til Friday 20 for Özil, or now?
Why would you sell Darmian after Valencia has been ruled out long term he might nail down the spot ? . I might do A eventually but I am not doing anything until after the internationals I have plenty of flags already
he is n borrowed time,
last game with Valencia out, subbed before 60', and was benched in last UCL game
Think I can hold cuz Payet, but too pricey and too uncertain
A
Moreno likely to rise in price tonight?
http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php
Is this site realiable as well?That site is terrible this season.
So many over 100 and they haven't risen.
Only FPLS and FFF are worthwhile.Thanks as always
No according to ff fix. Ozil the only riser
should i do mane to ozil tonight -4 ?
If you want to avoid another Ozil rise yes.
Why tonight ?
price rise, and mane is injured
Long time until GW13.
Does 0.1 make a big difference to you ?...What will you spend it on ?
need for aguero move next gw
Ozil may rise.
98.5 now
Just to get a taste of how everyone is doing on here. What are your points total just now?
I am at 638.-20
Circa this
Too bad
561
I am also at 638...
And was also born in 92...
...Are you me?I think i could be.
You're pretty awesome.
Naw, thanks dude.
You're welcome Irish MadriScottcam92.
623...and with 44 pts worth of hits...
653.
The leader so far!
Not anymore.
638 here as well. Weird.
O.o
679
OR 10,856Just throw in the nice OR there why don't ya 😉
Not bad at all...
a clean 600
Or is it a dirty 600..? Do you really know for sure?
It's clean...I've smelled it
Nice 😎
656
Can anyone tell me what thrill seekers mean? I need it for school.
Kolarov (c)ers.
Adrenaline junkies. Foolhardy adventurers. Tomb Raiders and the like.
Thanks, guys.
