634x258 Dugout Discussion
5 December 2015 2127 comments
James Barnes James Barnes
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Saturday’s curtain-closer finds Chelsea playing host to Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge. The Blues are growing in confidence following a dreadful start to the campaign, with two clean sheets under their belt in as many fixtures. The Cherries, meanwhile, have finally discovered their scoring touch, netting five goals in their previous two match-ups.

Chelsea occupy the middle of the pack with regards to attempts (53), shots inside the box (30), big chances (four) and shots on target (14) over the last four Gameweeks. No team racked up fewer goals (two) during that time frame, though, engendering the worst shot-conversion rate (3.8%). On a more positive note, the Blues rank bottom for big chances conceded (one) and third-bottom for shots inside the box conceded (21) since Gameweek 11.

Bournemouth lead the field in terms of attempts (71) over the last four Gameweeks, having mustered nine more efforts at goal than Liverpool and Spurs. Additionally, the south-coast outfit have crafted the second-most shots inside the box (41) and the most key passes (55) across that stretch. There’s still vast room for improvement at the other end of the pitch: Villa (10) were the only team to concede more goals than the Cherries (eight) in their previous quartet of fixtures.

  1. Nicks93
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 21 days ago

    Please (C)osta

      1. Nicks93
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Yup, that sums it up

  2. Effective Ownership update - GW15
    Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 21 days ago

    RP, bottomed 🙄

    Last week I touched on the topic of 'effective ownership'. The original post can be found here:

    http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/11965699

    I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the EO of players week on week, as ownership and captaincy % changes.

    In my initial post, I detailed EO as being the following:

    Ownership % + Captaincy %

    Whilst this is true, there is a more accurate way of working out EO. This factors in the number of times a player is triple captained, but more importantly, whether they are being played or not. Of course, if a player is stuck on the bench, their points do not count. The new equation looks like this:

    Ownership % + Captaincy % + Triple Captaincy % - Benched %

    So, with this in mind, here is how the EO of players looks for this week:

    Overall:

    ‣ Vardy = 68.2%
    ‣ Mahrez = 59.7%
    ‣ Lukaku = 59.3%
    ‣ Ozil = 54.3%
    ‣ Barkley = 38.5%
    ‣ Kane = 35.9%
    ‣ Kolarov = 33.1%
    ‣ De Bruyne = 31.2%
    ‣ Cech = 30.2%
    ‣ Smalling = 29.7%

    Top 10k:

    ‣ Lukaku = 109.2%
    ‣ Ozil = 105.8%
    ‣ Vardy = 100.5%
    ‣ Mahrez = 79.5%
    ‣ Barkley = 67.5%
    ‣ De Bruyne = 61.2%
    ‣ Kolarov = 49.3%
    ‣ Ighalo = 48.5%
    ‣ Kane = 41.0%
    ‣ Cech/Smalling = 40.6%

    As one would expect, no players in the overall game have an EO of more than 100%. This is due to the number of dead teams, and dare I say 'casuals'.

    The top 10k is a different story. This week, Ozil, Lukaku and Vardy all have an EO of more than 100%. This means that for every point they score this week, you lose out, unless you captained them. Of course, if your captain outscores them you are better off, but it is interesting to note that you can still lose ground for every point a player scores, even if you own them.

    This is currently only the case for those lucky enough to occupy a place within the top 10k, somewhere we all aim to be come the end of the season.

    What I found interesting was the fact that 3 players have an EO of over 100% this week. If they were to all score hauls (Ozil and Vardy both got an assist, but not a haul), and you were to captain someone who blanked, you could well see a significant drop in rank, despite owning them.

    What I also found interesting is an obvious template emerging. There are 4 players in each position (defenders, midfielders and forwards) with significant EOs, with the rest reasonably lower.

    These players are:

    GK: Cech
    Defenders: Kolarov, Smalling, Alderweireld, Bellerin
    Midfielders: Ozil, Mahrez, Barkley, De Bruyne
    Forwards: Vardy, Lukaku, Ighalo, Kane

    Whilst it is tempting to stray from the crowd, picking punts with low ownerships, it could be costly.

    Whilst some of the players have EOs of greater than 100 (from that list), others do not. This means you still gain a significant advantage for every point they score. Many are against the 'template' team, or highly owned players, but they offer the security of rarely (or never) having a detrimental week, with lots of steady rises.

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      RP: The most 8 owned players in my team 😀

      • 12 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      RP: Jesus, Ozil's EO is crazy high!

      Thanks Roda.

    2. Zasa
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Great take on the ownership debate, RB. Thanks for this!

      1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Thanks. I'm thinking that holding highly owned players is a good tactic for those who are outside of the top 10k. As you edge closer, I think it then becomes wise to invest in more players with a lower EO in order to help rise further up the rankings.

        It's a risk you have to take, because otherwise you will just become stagnant and yoyo back and forth.

        1. Zasa
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Good points, think I'm done going too maverick with the armband & just letting the low EO players do the groundwork themselves.

    3. Pochecinno
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Great post.

    4. Pochecinno
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      RB - you should turn this into a weekly article. This information is vital to all players imo. A sticky will be missed by most

      1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        This is something I was considering, as well as compiling the EO of players across all gameweeks this season and representing the data on some graphs.

        1. Pochecinno
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Fantastic mate. I guess these stats aren't be members so us plebs will be able to read it

    5. Az
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 20 days ago

      Love these, thanks!!

    6. A-VB
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 20 days ago

      This post is an eye-opener for me after Hazard (C) this week despite having Ozil and Lukaku.

    7. AK ⭐
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 20 days ago

      Thanks again Roda.

      I was on Kane (c) all week until Saturday when I decided to read your previous Hot Topic again. Real eye opener and a new strategy this term for me from now onwards. Switched to Lukaku and looks like a success already.

      Can you please convert this into a Community Article if you're doing this ever week?

  3. Jay_
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Just had me Indian takeaway, bloated, tired and on a captain Hazard anti climax downer 🙁

      1. Davido989
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        🙁

      2. Pochecinno
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Tomorrow morning is going to be ugly

    • antwuan
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Costa should be sent off.

      1. how now brown cow
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Just generally?

      2. King Kav. QC at law
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Of course. He's playing in a match, that's a given.

    • Lizard Lips
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Whose on penalties? Costa or Hazard?

      1. Davido989
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        mourinho

      2. andy85wsm
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Have to assume it's Hazard until they get another one.

        1. Ayew Serious
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Hulk Roda

          1. Ayew Serious
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 21 days ago

            Cheers

      3. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Hazard

    • Costa in Wengerland
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Omg that was a hand ball

    • Boydinho
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      suuuuuuuper pen

    • Davido989
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      costa yellow

      1. antwuan
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        At least.

      2. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        So on 0. His goose is cooked. 🙂

        1. Davido989
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          😆

    • Costa in Wengerland
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      Costa Yc

    • Tomlette Greggs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 21 days ago

      That should've been a penalty.

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Have no idea how the ref thought it wasn't, awful

      2. Bøwstring The Carp
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Costa is an enigma

        1. Jimmers
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          He's and idiot

      3. Mull
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        😆

      4. Royal5
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Costa to lose his head now..

      5. internal error
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Has Costa ever got a red card for chelsea?

        1. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Not during the game.

        2. Malcolm Tucker for England …
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          don't think so. all retrospective

        3. King Kav. QC at law
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          No. He's brilliant at cheating and getting away with it (until the FA look at it after)

          • 12 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          No on the field red card since 2011

      6. BenDavies
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        THAT HAS TO BE A PENALTY REFEREE ABSOLUTELY INCOMPETENT WEAK

        1. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          NEW POST?

        2. Ayew Serious
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Stfu

          1. Rupert The Horse
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 21 days ago

            Ok! I don't expect that from you.

            1. Ayew Serious
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Why?, he just yelled at us

            2. King Kav. QC at law
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Deserved.

        3. Mull
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Found the Hazard owner.

        4. Royal5
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Nah, not intentional.

          1. BabyB
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 21 days ago

            doesnt have to be.

        5. King Kav. QC at law
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Pipe down boy.

        6. Pochecinno
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 21 days ago

          Caps Lock

      7. Duke Silver ☑
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Costa the schizo.

      8. Raddy
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 21 days ago

        Hazard looking scorey? He could take down Mexico in one goal.

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
            10 years, 21 days ago

            Chelsea just denied a certain pen, poor refereeing

            1. Raddy
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Luck of the Mexicans

            2. King Kav. QC at law
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Good news. We all hate Chelsea.

              1. @persecuted_by_mods
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  That we do

            3. Jay_
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Not one bit, needs a lucky penalty

                1. Jose's Magic Omelette
                  • 12 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  Judging by his recent penalty record a penalty will reduce his score.

            4. Rupert The Horse
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Please, tell me what just happened with Costa.

              1. internal error
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Just fouling and yelling at the ref. On a yellow

              2. Piggs Boson
                • 14 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Pulled a player to the ground by his neck and shouted at the referee for giving a foul.

              3. Rupert The Horse
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Thank you

            5. Jose's Magic Omelette
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Chelsea never get penalties anymore!

              1. Rupert The Horse
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Ok Jose.

              2. Mull
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Makes a nice change imo

              3. SweeSwee
                • 11 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                There's a conspiracy

            6. SweeSwee
              • 11 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              I think I will just admit the error and sell Hazard immediately

              1. twoplustwo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Not sure what the fuss was 😐

              2. ralfb
                • 11 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                There are some good fixtures ahead

                1. SweeSwee
                  • 11 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  None better than this one

            7. Malcolm Tucker for England …
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              how is he still on??

            8. Piggs Boson
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Leicester will do well to keep the Tinkerman next season.

              1. King Kav. QC at law
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Can see Chelsea eyeing him up.

                • 12 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                You can still get him for LMA Manager of the year at 5/1!

                I'm all over that.

                1. Ayew Serious
                  • 10 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  Well... Klopp

                    • 12 Years
                    10 years, 21 days ago

                    Gotta end up as title contenders for him to get that IMO. Also I think being parachuted in mid-season works a little bit against him.

                    1. Somalion
                      • 15 Years
                      10 years, 21 days ago

                      Might actually need to win the title. If Ranieri gets Leicester to finish anywhere in the top 4 he'd be on for it given Leicester's situation last season.

                        • 12 Years
                        10 years, 21 days ago

                        This is very true, even Leicester top 6 will make it very hard for Klopp to take the prize.

                        1. Somalion
                          • 15 Years
                          10 years, 21 days ago

                          Yes indeedy.

                    2. Ayew Serious
                      • 10 Years
                      10 years, 21 days ago

                      Who would you consider title favourites? City?

                      We are 3 points behind them we beat Newcastle and beat them 4-1 away
                      The worst of our fixtures are behind us

                      I'm pretty sure we are already contenders

                        • 12 Years
                        10 years, 21 days ago

                        I'm talking 5 games from the end of season still being up there. I don't doubt you look as good as any team at the moment but IMO you're still a step off Arsenal and City in terms of quality when each team is in full flight.

                      1. Somalion
                        • 15 Years
                        10 years, 21 days ago

                        Anyone in the top 6/7 are contenders at the moment tbh.

                2. Somalion
                  • 15 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  Wow, might have to look into this.

              2. LeicesterA
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                I don't think that's too likely. Ranieri has openly stated on several occasions that he'd like to see his career out at Leicester and that he and the owners have shared ambitions of steadily moving towards top 8, top 6 and top 4 in coming seasons.

                The real challenge I suspect will be keeping Mahrez. I do think Vardy will stay though.

            9. Özilla Firefox
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Costa red incoming

              1. King Kav. QC at law
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Says everyone every time he plays. It never happens.

            10. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
              • 15 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              This is worse than watching united

              1. Davido989
                • 15 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                wouldnt go that far

                1. George Sillett
                  • 10 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  Agree to that is like watching paint dry.

              1. Royal5
                • 14 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Lol

              2. RÏɠBY
                • 14 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                hehe

            11. Bøwstring The Carp
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Leicester were in a relegation battle last year and Chelsea were top of the table

              How thing's can change so quickly

              1. The 12th Man
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Ranieri effect + Pizzas

            12. Sweetpea
              • 13 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Hands up Hazard owners.

              1. Daniel Exeter
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                Too early

                1. Sweetpea
                  • 13 Years
                  10 years, 21 days ago

                  Never too early to put your hands up.

                  1. Daniel Exeter
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    10 years, 21 days ago

                    Don't wanna jinx it 😉

            13. Daniel Exeter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Please Azpi, don't come on.

              Nyom first bench

            14. Lizard Lips
              • 13 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              My initial plan was Alexis to Ramsey and then Vardy to Kane but for some reason I bought in KDB instead. Another poor decision, one of many 🙁

            15. Dukes of Hazard
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 21 days ago

              Please sub Costa off Jose, just for the reaction, please.

              1. Malcolm Tucker for England …
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                10 years, 21 days ago

                red waiting to happen