Scout Notes

Scout Notes – Gameweek 14 – Saturday

Jamie Vardy topples Ruud’s record in a Gameweek that also saw Kevin De Bruyne punish the impatient and Yannick Bolas reward a faithful few. Here’s the notes from Saturday’s encounters…

Unstoppable Vardy Earns Foxes Point

Jamie Vardy carved his name into the annals of Premier League history by extending his scoring streak to 11 matches in a 1-1 draw against Manchester United, surpassing Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s previous record set in 2003.

Thanks to a sublime pass from Christian Fuchs, the former Fleetwood Town hitman now sits four clear of the rest of the field in the race for the Golden Boot on 14 goals.

Much rhetoric has centred around whether the Foxes’ challenging run through to the New Year (swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI) will stymie the rhythm of both Vardy and Riyad Mahrez; Saturday’s display went some way to suggest that those fears will be unfounded. Vardy again delivered an end product, while Mahrez was a consistent threat with his pace and trickery.

Elsewhere, there are signs that Claudio Ranieri’s side are providing greater defensive stability in recent weeks. Since Gameweek 9, the Foxes have conceded five goals in five matches, earning two shut-outs. Moreover, they’ve allowed just three “big chances” – gilt edged opportunities – to opponents in this window: only Arsenal and Stoke conceded fewer.

De Bruyne Comes Good for City

Manchester City recovered from last weekend’s demolition at the hands of Liverpool with a 3-1 win at home to Southampton. Kevin De Bruyne came back to bite the 80,000 managers that shipped him off in the lead up to this Gameweek, tallying a goal and two assists.

Tracking back to the start of last season, the Belgian orchestrator has now amassed more assists (26) than any other player across Europe’s top five leagues, demonstrating the consistency of his attacking returns. De Bruyne has also either scored or assisted 55.6% of City’s goals whilst he’s been on the pitch.

Alarm bells rung when Sergio Aguero limped off shortly beyond the hour-mark. However, Manuel Pellegrini insisted after the match that the Argentine’s withdrawal was a “precaution”, given that he suffered a kick to his heel. Regardless, his 17% ownership will be nervously awaiting further updates.

Shifting the focus back to the Sky Blues’ midfield troupe, Fabian Delph scored his first City goal, while Raheem Sterling kept his tally, ticking over with an assist. David Silva made a 16-minute cameo in the dying embers of the tie, setting him up for a return to the starting line-up next time out at Stoke.

With Willy Caballero between the sticks, Man City’s rearguard failed to record a clean sheet for their sixth successive home outing. Aleksandar Kolarov – who came close from a free-kick in the early exchanges – was the sole benefactor amongst their back line, drilling a pinpoint strike into the bottom corner for his second goal of the campaign. Kolarov’s attacking prowess would seem likely to see him continue to hold off the challenge of Gael Clichy for league starts, promoting his worth, despite City’s defensive struggles.

Mane The Provider As Saints Slip

Spearheading Southampton’s attack in the absence of the suspended Graziano Pelle, Shane Long bagged his third goal in five starts. Sadio Mane supplied the ammunition via an accurate flighted cross, boosting his assist tally to six for the season. The Senegalese winger shed 60,000 owners prior to the Eithad showdown but looks well placed to exert his influence over three home matches in the next four (AVL, cry TOT ARS).

Southampton’s endeavours to stifle the home team were not aided by Jose Fonte’s early substitution. Although the Portugal international was unable to play on because of a knee laceration, manager Ronald Koeman assured reporters that Fonte will be available for their midweek League Cup clash against Liverpool.

Ighalo and Deeney Deliver Again

Watford survived Aston Villa’s late rally to record a 3-2 win at Villa Park. Yet again, Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney were factors as they bagged a goal and an assist apiece, cementing the duo as the prime budget forwards.

Ighalo has now been directly involved (seven goal and four assists) in 11 of the Hornets’ last 13 goals, while Deeney boasts four goals in five outings. Both men will fancy their chances of delivering further attacking returns as the Hornets embark on an enticing pair of match-ups (NOR, sun). Inhale was attracting yet more owners overnight, ranking third for FPL transfers in.

Elsewhere in the Watford camp, Ben Watson turned provider for his maiden assist of the campaign, while Heurelho Gomes had to be substituted at the 67-minute mark following a head injury. The Brazilian shot-stopper has since been given the all-clear but remains a doubt for the Norwich meeting having suffered concussion.

Richards Rewards In Another Villa Setback

Aston Villa extended their winless streak to 13 matches, carding their 11th defeat over that stretch. Micah Richard equalised for the hosts in the 41st minute with his first goal of the season, rewarding the subset of his 6% ownership that elected to field him in the starting XI.

Although the Villains’ next two fixtures (sou, ARS) harbour minimal clean-sheet potential, it should be noted that their schedule from Gameweek 17 (new, WHU, nor, sun, CRY, LEI, wba) looks more promising. This spell will undoubtedly be cited as a critical period in Villa’s season by Remi Garde.

Jordan Ayew (5.5) is a name who could yet come into consideration during that window of fixtures. He set up a frenetic finish with his quality strike in the 89th minute. The Ghanaian attacker has now notched three goals in five starts and is emerging as the only real potential source of attacking promise within Garde’s ranks.

Stanilas Leads Cherries Fight Back

Eddie Howe’s men displayed incredible resolve to secure a 3-3 draw at home to Everton, courtesy of a 97th-minute equaliser from Junior Stanislas.

Making just his fifth appearance of the season, the winger grabbed a brace at the Vitality Stadium, illustrating the latent value of Bournemouth’s rejuvenated midfield contingent. On that same note, Joshua King – much to the delight of his 1600 new owners – earned the assist for Stanislas’ first effort.

King and Stanislas, along with Dan Gosling, continue to make convincing auditions for the fifth midfield slot in our squads. Valued at just 4.2, Stanislas has started the last three league outings but his role on the left flank will come under threat from Marc Pugh on his return from injury.

Of the three names mentioned, Gosling (4.4) is the most secure option and has recently benefited from a more attack-minded role in recent weeks. However, a hamstring injury to Harry Arter (4.7) in yesterday’s encounter may well force Howe to tweak his midfield setup for the trip to Chelsea in Gameweek 14.

At the other end of the pitch, Adam Smith opened his account with a howitzer of a strike, while Charlie Daniels posted his first assist of the term. Elsewhere, Adam Federici is set to be ruled out for the “foreseeable future” with an ankle injury. Given that the Cherries first-choice keeper Artur Boruc is currently nursing a groin complaint, Ryan Allsop (4.4) will face a baptism of fire when they travel to Stamford Bridge next weekend.

Toffees Goal Power Not Enough

Everton’s vulnerable back line was exposed as they surrendered a two-goal lead on the south coast. Nonetheless, Romelu Lukaku underlined his status as one of the league’s form forwards, netting his fifth goal in four outings. The 8.9-priced marksman has already matched his tally (10 goals) from the previous campaign and will be chomping at the bit to face off against the likes of Crystal Palace, Norwich, Leicester City and Newcastle in the coming Gameweeks.

Ross Barkley (7.1) proved to be the Toffees’ star man for the second week running, chalking up a goal and an assist. Barkley now comes in at 0.8 more expensive than the 6.3-priced Gerard Deulofeu (who picked up an assist) but is justifying that additional outlay with four goals in five starts. Barkley enjoyed more new FPL owners than any other player overnight, as his price increased again by 0.1.

Although Everton’s back line was unable to snuff out Bournemouth’s late assault, Ramiro Funes Mori (goal) and Seamus Coleman (assist) came up trumps in the final third. Roberto Martinez’s charges lay claim to just one clean sheet in eight match-ups, yet their above-mentioned favourable run could yield better results in that respect.

Coleman has now returned back-to-back assists as he contributes to Everton’s strong attacking form. The Toffees have scored 14 goals in their last four matches, with the fixtures suggesting that they could maintain such form right up until the turn of the year.

Bolasie Brace Fires Eagles

Crystal Palace ran out resounding 5-1 victors against Newcastle, marking the first time they’ve racked up five goals in a Premier League encounter.

Yannick Bolasie was the standout performer as he punished the visitors with a goal in either half: Bolasie has now matched his goal tally from last season. The 6.1-priced wing wizard has long been maligned for a lack of end product, but Saturday’s showing and recent output suggests that he can begin to emerge as a consistent attacking prospect.

Having said that, Bolasie has been involved (scored or assisted) in 26.7% of Palace’s goals this season, an almost identical level of involvement compared to last season (26.3). This would indicate that, for now, we should show caution and perhaps base interest in the DR Congo attacker based on Palace’s likely goal output over forthcoming fixtures.

Whilst Palace have three away trips in the next four (eve SOT stk bou), Alan Pardew’s men have been effective on their travels – a factor which perhaps promotes further interest in Bolasie as a midfield option. However, goals at Everton and Stoke won’t come easy, whilst Southampton’s defence was ranked amongst the best away from home up until yesterday’s defeat at the Etihad.

Elsewhere, Wilfried Zaha graced the scoresheet for the second time this campaign, alerting us to his budget potential ahead of decent batch of fixtures (eve, SOU, sto, bou, SWA). Unfortunately, the former Manchester United recruit received his fifth domestic booking so will sit out the Eagles’ trip to Goodison Park.

In his second start since returning from injury, Connor Wickham notched a brace of assists – likely ensuring that Marouane Chamakh remains rooted to the bench. To the jubilation of almost no one, the 0.2%-owned James McArthur scored an unlikely double, while Damien Delaney figured from another effective Palace set-play to register his first assist in nine appearances.

Black Cats Keep It Clean

Buoyed by Ryan Shawcross’ red card at the start of the second half, Patrick van Aanholt and Duncan Watmore both netted in the space of three minutes to grant Sunderland a vital 2-0 win over Stoke City.

The Black Cats have now accrued three wins in six outings under Sam Allardyce, matching their victory count during Dick Advoaat’s 17-game reign. Moreover, a haul of 18 attempts against the Potters was Sunderland’s biggest this term, which – irrespective of their one-man advantage – bodes well on the attacking front.

As for the Wearsiders’ facilitators, DeAndre Yedlin and Adam Johnson carded the assists. Considering that Sunderland have recorded three clean sheets in their previous five matches, the likes of Van Aanholt and Yedlin now begin to factor into our thinking.

Costel Pantilimon is also coming to the fore as an option in goal – he’s recorded 31 points in his last five outings, including five bonus points and seven points from saves. Given Sunderland’s brutal schedule across the next five Gameweeks (ars, WAT, che, mci, LIV), the giant Romanian stopper may well be the only viable option in their back line for now.

755 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Cocky Spaniel Alves
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Should I be happy with 55 with Myhill, Moreno, Koscielny and Sanchez BUT having captained Agüero?

    1. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No

    2. Odikostar
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Si

    3. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I would

  2. Effective Ownership
    Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Effective ownership is something which is rarely discussed on here, yet many will be quick to assume that because a certain player is owned/captained by so many, they will not benefit from their points.

    The reality is, this often isn't the case. If a player you owns scores well, you will benefit, 99% of the time.

    However, in some cases, if you own a player (but didn't captain them) each point they score will put you at a disadvantage. Their points will contribute to the average more than your points from them will contribute towards your score.

    This occurs when their effective ownership is more than 100%.

    For those who don't know, effective ownership is a players total ownership % + their captaincy % for that GW. For this reason, the figure varies week to week.

    Because of this, there is rarely any player who has an effective ownership of more than 100% in the overall game. For this reason, I will turn to the top 10k. This is where we all want to be, the end of season target for most.

    Below are the ownerships, captaincy % and effective ownerships of some of the most popular players in the game. The figures are all for the top 10k:

    Lukaku:

    • Ownership - 80.6%
    • Captaincy - 47.7%

    Effective ownership = 128.3%

    Vardy:

    • Ownership - 84.8%
    • Captaincy - 9.2%

    Effective ownership = 94.0%

    Mahrez:

    • Ownership - 88.9%
    • Captaincy - 2.4%

    Effective ownership = 91.3%

    Ozil:

    • Ownership - 58.6%
    • Captaincy - 9.4%

    Effective ownership = 68.0%

    Kane:

    • Ownership - 42.7%
    • Captaincy - 5.8%

    Effective ownership = 48.5%

    Aguero:

    • Ownership - 13.2%
    • Captaincy - 6.9%

    Effective ownership = 20.1%

    So what does this mean?

    Simply put, owning Lukaku but not captaining him (in the top 10k) means you lose out for every point he scores. 128.3% of his points are added to the top 10k average, with only 100% being added to your points. Roughly 7.698 points were added on to the top 10k average because of his points, with owners only getting 6 points, assuming they didn't captain him.

    Contrary to popular belief, ownership of the remainder of players still means you gain an advantage, albeit a small one in some cases. You benefit by a tiny amount for every goal which Vardy scores, for example.

    So how is this useful?

    Well, you can use it to determine whether or not you wish to continue owning such high players, or risk picking differentials in order to gain more of a boost.

    It can also be used to help pick a captain. If you are highly ranked in a mini league or in OR, it may be wise to pick a player with EO of more than 100% to defend your lead. Likewise, it may be worth captaining someone else if you are chasing, if you deem the risk worth it.

    The problem is, when picking your captain you will not know the captaincy % for each player and thus cannot accurately work out their effective ownership.

    You can however, make a prediction. The captain poll is a good place to start. You could use that % as the captaincy percentage. You could also manually predict it, using the player's form and fixture. In some cases it will be obvious. A player like Lukaku with such a high ownership anyway will likely have an effective ownership of more than 100% in a week where he has a great fixture. You could also use their average captaincy % as a base score and increase/decrease it depending on the fixture etc.

    Whilst generally you want all your players to do well, if one of them has an effective ownership of more than 100%, and you didn't captain them, you will actually be disadvantaged by them scoring. FACT. This means you will be willing for your player to not score well. That's not a nice position to be in.

    If you get to this point, it might be wise to consider dropping the player for someone with a lower EO. However, if they continue to score well, you will be at an even bigger disadvantage.

    It's a tough situation to be in, and something we all need to consider when owning the likes of Vardy, Lukaku, Kane and Mahrez. If we want to make ground, especially in the higher ranks, we might have to flirt with saying farewell to our beloveds.

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Agreed

      1. Eden Hazardous
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Lol

    2. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Well as a Kane owner but non (c)er I can hope for a hatty 🙂

    3. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      My eyes

    4. The Chosen One...
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      u wot m8

      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Nice primer Roda 🙂

    5. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Great post . Thanks

    6. Ziro Becomes One
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Lovely idea.

      In effect though, it's the same way a high ownership player hurts us. Like Mahrez and Vardy if you don't have them.

      Having a player and not capping just stretches the percentages a bit more. Also, since we cannot captain more than one player from our team, difficult to make use of this.

      However, this is very useful to explain the rank movements when we have a good week but slide down rankings.

      1. Eden Hazardous
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Its not an idea.....its a FACT

        1. Ziro Becomes One
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Using a FACT for an idea of strategy... Have to read the sentence sometimes, 😉

          1. Eden Hazardous
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Its not like high ownership players , its a fact that more than 100% ownership players are a pain in the arse

            1. Ziro Becomes One
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              Not all the time. Could use it to go ahead of them all. 😀

      2. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        The principal though is that you can actually be disadvantaged when a player scores, even if you own them.

        Of course, we can only captain one player, but rarely will there be more than 1 player (each week) with an EO of more than 100%.

        In a DGW where triple captain chips will be used, I will certainly be using this to aid my decision. We could see the EO % shoot up closer to 200% for certain players.

        1. Bolivian Seaman
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Its good for differentials, just means larger sofas

          1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Indeed.

            If I was leading an important ML or ranked very high up, i.e top 1k etc. I'd certainly be using this as a defensive strategy.

        2. Ziro Becomes One
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          That is a more useful stat then.

          Then, further analysis of the players who have been 100% eff. owned the last 14 weeks would give us an idea to use it along with their scores. That might convince me more.

          Great idea regardless. Thanks.

          1. Ziro Becomes One
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            I am guessing you already have the figures for previous weeks, care to share here as a comment?

            1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              I don't have them to hand, but I will post them later.

          2. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            This is something I am going to look into more. Now that I've decided to discontinue my bandwagon series, I will have more time for other projects.

            I'll post the EO of the top players each week, so that we know who we need to build our sofa forts for.

            Seems Aguero isn't the one we need to worry about right now...

        3. Manamongst
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          THIS.

        4. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Like Lukaku yesterday. His goal hurt my rankings

    7. Az
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      this is amazing. Had never thought about this.
      Hulk.

      1. Optimus.
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Give us a sec and I'll get that sorted

        1. Optimus.
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          It seems my Hulk button is stuck

          1. Somalion
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Just updating the site so that function will be back up soon.

            1. Somalion
              • 14 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              There ya go

              1. Optimus.
                • 13 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                Cheers 😉

          2. Optimus.
            • 13 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Sorted 😎

            1. Ziro Becomes One
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              I am confused. Were Jafooli and Optimus mods in previous years?

              1. Optimus.
                • 13 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                Were?

                *Are

              2. Gnu
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                They mod the site in a parallel universe and occasionally in different timezones. i.e the future.

              3. John t penguin
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                They are blazing mods
                Don't need no stinking badges

                1. Evs
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 6 months ago

                  No badge, no hulking, no.... POWER 😉 !!!!

                  1. John t penguin
                    • 9 Years
                    8 years, 6 months ago

                    Are you Andy in disguise

                  2. Optimus.
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 6 months ago

                    If you like your badge Evs then you should know better to keep quiet

                    1. Evs
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 14 Years
                      8 years, 6 months ago

                      Haha .

                      Only deal with the 'Top Gun' 😆

                      1. Optimus.
                        • 13 Years
                        8 years, 6 months ago

                        😉

              4. Evs
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 14 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                Nah, they are just a couple of minions 😆 !

                No powers 😛

                1. John t penguin
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 6 months ago

                  Yeah right
                  So why do I send my £10 monthly subs to jafooli to get the private mod articles?

                  1. Optimus.
                    • 13 Years
                    8 years, 6 months ago

                    😆

                  2. Evs
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 14 Years
                    8 years, 6 months ago

                    He's my biatch. He just forwards on the funds to me . 😉

    8. Zizoulicious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Captaincy strategy

    9. ralfb
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks, really good post. Where can you see top 10k ownerships?

        1. ralfb
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Super, thanks

    10. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      So is this the 2nd course at FFS Uni after the "will the next price drop affect me?" one?

    11. twoplustwo
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Good post. Kind of in this position in my leagues today with high Kane captaincies (not me).

    12. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Good effort mate

    13. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thank you man. Bookmarked and upvoted. I was trying to spin this debate and people were rude even. They said just stop it, pts are pts.

      Well now ha!! In your face :P.

      Cheers dude

    14. John t penguin
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Great post RB
      My main focus is on ML wins, so this is actually easier to calculate for those, with a much smaller field to work with then it is easier to predict the impact of your decisions

    15. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Great post!

    16. Manaf
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Brilliant

    17. John t penguin
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I am going to vote for this for article of the month even though it isn't an article

    18. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I really like this post, thanks. There's something I don't entirely understand though. If I choose a different captain, with a less than 100% EO, who scores better than the one with 100%+ EO, that is good for me, right? It means I got points most people didn't. So, if I (c) Sanchez, and he scores more than 6 today, then even though all 6 of Lukaku's points hurt me, all of Sanchez's points benefited me even more. If that's right, then does all of this really change the way we think? Do we not always know that by picking a minority (c) we risk getting hammered if he scores less than the front-runner, but we get a high upside if he scores more? I find your observations really interesting but I'm trying to understand what they add to our practical decision-making.

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Hey Jelly, forgive me for laughing but I noticed that in the LaWR league you have the highest score...... yet sit 2nd bottom of league - pretty bizarre, huh!

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          It amazes me too. I have had just rotten luck with match-ups. It looks like I might beat Siva this week though!

      2. Ziro Becomes One
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        This!

        But RodallegaBomb' made further comments down there highlighting even better uses. To chose when to be defensive if leading.

        We all know the high owned players. Using the captaincy poll we might estimate the damage more accurately. It's not a ground-shaking tool but it refines our calculations just a tad bit more accurately.

        1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          As I mentioned below, it can help to decide between the highly owned players and quantify the risk of not captaining them.

          Despite Vardy having 10% more ownership than Lukaku, the latter had 34% more EO this week, making not captaining him more of a risk.

      3. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        You raise a fair point. Of course, if Sanchez were to outscore Lukaku today then you would be better off.

        What EO can show you is a clearer picture of the risk involved with captaincy. For example, the risk of not captaining Lukaku could be greater than the possible benefits of captaining Sanchez.

        However you slice it, if Sanchez does better, you benefit. But this benefit could be somewhat dampened depending on Lukaku's EO.

        It is better, really, for the long term, rather than one week. If you were to play defensively, and captain the player with the highest EO each week, you would reduce the amount of risk involved and could see a reward as a result. If you were to go against it, the benefit which you may see one week could be completely wiped out the next week.

        Say Sanchez scores more than Lukaku this week, great! But what if next week Sanchez blanks and Lukaku scores a hat trick? Those 17 points, from Lukaku would more than wipe out the gain you made. Even if he were to score just 1, if Sanchez were to blank, it would be a big set back.

        The main point I am making is that the risk and reward can be quantifiable. We do not need to assume that we are losing out, we can use data to show to risk.

        This is very much an argument of dullard v maverick.

        (Regarding your point about changing the way we think about picking highly owned players for captaincy) If you didn't captain Vardy this week, you still benefit from his points. If you didn't captain Lukaku, you lose out. This is despite Vardy's higher ownership. You can use this to influence your decisions. The face value is that not captaining Vardy is more of a risk, when the reality is that not captaining Lukaku is. Its still a case of do you play safe or take a punt, but it is more calculated.

        1. Ziro Becomes One
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Great explanation.

        2. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Thanks, that was exactly the kind of thing I wanted to hear. 🙂

    19. Van Klinkert Delarosa
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      "Effective ownership is something which is rarely discussed on here ..."

      The thing is I never knew this term even existed before this.

      Excellent read.

      One thing I from this post is following the herd is not a bad move at all, especially if you are backing a sure thing or easy points.

      1. Van Klinkert Delarosa
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        * I gathered from this post

    20. the axolotl
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      The guy over at the excellent athttps://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com lists effective ownerships for all players in his speadsheet. Broken down for overall and top 10k

        1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Indeed he does. The figures I used are for effective ownership: ownership % + captaincy %.

          He uses starting % + captain % + triple captain %. This is more accurate but varies more week to week. For the purpose of this introduction to EO, I just used the 2 variables.

          1. the axolotl
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah it's quite a lot to get your head around i must admit. Hadn't ever considered that I should want my player not to do well. Like I was reasonably happy non c lukaku got 6 yesterday as in he did ok. I was just hoping he wouldn't go on a goal frenzy.

    21. The Fantastic Mr Fox
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      But since you've considered the top 10k for your numbers, Lukaku doing well would affect my rank as a non-captainer only if I am with the top 10k right? Or am I wrong in making that assumption.

      So unless effective ownership of player is >100% for a rank range which includes my current position, say top 100k, I as a non-captainer of Lukaku, will not drop in rank no matter how well he does.

      1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        If you are outside of the top 10k then you should benefit if he scores. Depends how close though; if you're on the cusp of the top 10k then you'll probably lose out too.

        1. The Fantastic Mr Fox
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Cusp yea. So it really depends on the EO upto your rank.

          But more than overall rank, I think this will be key within Minileagues. Many here just want to win minileagues, irrespective of OR. So those pple should consider EO if they wanna move up or stay up

    22. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      It is still best to choose the players who are expected to score the most points, and to captain the player who is expected to score the most points.

      If your players score more than the alternatives and your captain scores more than the alternatives then you will score more points than others irrespective of effective ownership.

      It is true that if player A has an effective ownership greater than 100% then taken in isolation every point that player A scores will be detrimental to your ranking if you owned him but did not captain him.
      However, if you captained player B instead and he outscores player A, then B(c) + A will outscore A(c) + B, so it is always best to have captained the higher scoring player.

      Exceptions might be towards the end of the season when you might want to either copy or differentiate from players in your rivals' teams - or in a head-to-head or cup situation when you might want to copy or differentiate from players in your opponent's team.

      The problem of course is that if a player has an effective ownership greater than 100% then how confident can you be that your choice is better than that of the majority? There might be a big downside to being different - but there might also be a big upside if you get it right.

      1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        These are all points which have been raised and discussed above. Of course, you are better off if player B out scores Player A as (c).

        It can be useful for determining risk. For example, the benefit of Player B (c) + Player A might not outweigh the risks of not going for Player A (c) + Player B, e.g. just owning player B is beneficial.

        It's all hypothetical at this point in the season, yes. But no doubt as we begin to defend any leads we have towards the end of the season, tactics can be formed from this information.

        Furthermore, if you are going for a ML win or a final surge up the ranks, then you could also use this to risk getting rid of the players with an EO of greater than 100%.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          As I said, there is a big risk, but there is also a big upside if it comes off as well as a big downside f it doesn't.

          Today the risk paid off when I captained Ozil rather than Lukaku.

    23. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A very informative, functional and well written piece. This is an article to end all those debates on ownership issues. This lad needs to be a Scout.

  3. ralfb
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Who is on pens for everton?

    1. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      The guy upfront

    2. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Lukaku

    3. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Lukookoo.

    4. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Miralles

    5. ralfb
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks, was just thinking of getting kane for lukaku after i got barkley

  4. Who Ate All Depays?
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Who would you replace in this defence and with whom?

    Bellerin, Kolarov, Moreno, Rojo & Targett

    1. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Targett to someone who plays.

    2. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Targett > Simpson

    3. Robben Mee Blind
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Reply fail below

  5. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Kun to Kane is my move this week if kane scores today

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      He will.

    2. Prøphet
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Might do the same 😀

    3. Ziro Becomes One
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Let me guess, the knee is dodgy a bit?

    4. DannyBoy....
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Kun will be fine, you know.

  6. Az
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    pretty bloody happy with Costa --> Lukaku this week!

  7. Sailboats
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hazard playing OOP. Essential.

    1. Pasqualinho
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Is he up front or is he just the bus driver?

      1. Zizoulicious
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Haha 🙂

    2. Zizoulicious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      If the front 4 play well, wonder if Costa will be back in next week

  8. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Defaileu (CRY) - Coutinho (new) - Alexis (SUN) - Ozil (SUN) - Mahrez (swa)
    Lukaku (CRY) - Vardy (swa) - Kane (wba)

    Who to bench?

    1. Emp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      delafpou

  9. tm370
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hey guys - where is the talk about Firmino being out coming from? Is it true?

  10. Robben Mee Blind
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Targett for a Watford def or Simpson depending on budget needs

    1. Robben Mee Blind
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Reply fail to GGMU

    2. Who Ate All Depays?
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      thanks mate

  11. Somalion
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Think I need to get that horrible ginger in my team.

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Watmore?

    2. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Let Scholes retire in peace...

    3. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I think Paul Scholes is retired mate

    4. Hypnos
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Duncan Watmore?

    5. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Taking about Bogdan you fools.

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        😆

      2. Somalion
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        *Talking

  12. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Which one is more likyl to cs. Liverpool or Arsenal?

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      likely to keep***

    2. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Toughie. I'd say Pool just.

    3. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      probably arsenal

    4. OLEgend
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Arsenal

    5. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Arse. Doubt any of them will though.

    6. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I will buy you virtual beer if I get this right

    7. TeamSteam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Pool, i think. Swansea arent really dangerous. Neither are Norwich, but theyre hurting in the middle of the park.

    8. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Arsenal but I'd be hopeful of both keeping a CS

  13. Zizoulicious
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    How do we assess KdB yesterday? Wrong decision to get rid?

    1. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      He plays better with better players round him. I thought delph played well, brought energy to the team. So I think as long as man city keep scoring big kbd will be in the points

      1. Zizoulicious
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah sounds about right. Seems he's quite reliant on city dominating the game rather than just making things happen. Looks like his biggest weapon is his crossing of the ball, doesn't get in the box much or shoot that often. So can he keep the assists coming from crosses?

    2. SANTACLAUS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    3. TeamSteam
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I dont think he played particularly well. His goal was a tap in, his first assist was completely random, and apart from that i dont think he looked very dangerous. The thing is, whenever Silva and Aguero returns to full throttle, its probably going to keep dripping over to KDB as well. Theres so many performing well, you cant own them all basically.

      1. Taffer
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Didn't look dangerous? He set up both goals very well and could've easily got a third assist if Bony had shown ANY composure.

        First assist wasn't lucky - completely intentional.

        1. TeamSteam
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          The assist for Delph was intentional, sure. But in the end it was a highly mediocre shot that got deflected - hence the luck. The second assist was fine, although if you consider the defending (5 people rushing towards him and nobody watching Kolarov).. As far as i can remember, he didnt have any shots on goal, and creating two chances at home in a 3-1 win isnt really exactly mindblowing in my book.

          1. Taffer
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            He didn't have any shots at goal but scored?

            right

            1. TeamSteam
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 6 months ago

              Are you beeing intentionally daft or is this just natural for you? Are you THAT big of a fanboy that you have no capability of understanding or do you enjoy arguing that much? Other than the tap in from 3 yards, he had no additional shots. Satisfied? Fkn stupid trolls.

              1. Wilshere Knowledge
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                It's kicking off!!!! 😀 😆

                1. Somalion
                  • 14 Years
                  8 years, 6 months ago

                  Popcorn time.

        2. Billy Gilmore
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Bony was offside anyway.

          Delph's goal was clearly lucky, meaning so was the assist regardless of the fact he meant the pass to go there.

      2. boc610
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        you couldnt have watched the game! best player on the pitch, beautiful pass at end wasted by bony. silva will end up assisting the assister which will be KDB the majority of the time now

        1. TeamSteam
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Yes i could have watched the game! But i guess since you have spoken that makes me the idiot!

      3. Zizoulicious
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        I guess at least he got into the box for the goal although think it was his only shot of the game. And he doesn't get into the box much. Exactly they will score enough goals for all the big hitters to share some points. He does put lots of crosses in to the box which seems like his main advantage for fpl. Just wonder if that's enough to bring home the bacon

        1. TeamSteam
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Hes been good FPL-wise and hes produced quite the numbers since joining City, but i still dont think hes been mindblowing in actual football terms. I actually feel like hes pretty wasted playing wide compared to playing in the middle of the park, the problem is if he were to play centrally, theyd have to shift Yaya deep, and hes a lazy sod, so that doesnt work.

    4. boc610
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      yep, there was a petition on here all week to get rid of him and i never understood why. he has been citys best player this season,hes involved in everything. i think he'l shine even more with silva back

    5. twoplustwo
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      A guy on here went to the game - I don't have a link but said he was "very, very good" in FPL terms.

      1. Emp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        to me the problem is his price. Paying close to 11mil fr a player with minimal goal threat, he needs to be assisting pretty much once a game to be worth it long term which is obviously imprbable

  14. Robben Mee Blind
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Hazard, Benteke or Ramsey for the armband today?

    1. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard.

      1. Robben Mee Blind
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers WK

    2. Vardy Gras PBFC
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I'd be going with Benteke if I was switching.

      1. Robben Mee Blind
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks Vardy. That's my inkling but just worried he may not start

        1. Vardy Gras PBFC
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Does have a habit of getting points off the bench, but I know what you mean. Good luck whoever you go for.

          1. Robben Mee Blind
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Cheers pal. Went for Tekkers. Being a Liverpool fan swung it

  15. Murph1
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Eriksen or Sanchez for Sky captain?

    1. Robben Mee Blind
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Think I'd go for Eriksen just because we know he's starting

  16. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Spurs Chelsea predictions?

    1. Ayew Serious
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      3-0

    2. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      1-1

    3. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      2-0

    4. Eden Hazardous
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      2-3

    5. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      1-1

    6. J1F
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      3 - 1

    7. Trae44
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      2-1

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        0:1

  17. Arvin-ation
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Lukaku or Giroud for any time goalscorer?

    1. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      As Lukaku has already scored, Lukaku

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Sanchez or Giroud*

        1. Wilshere Knowledge
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          😀

          Giroud.

  18. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    West Ham last scored in 11 successive top-flight games five months before Jamie Vardy was born.

  19. Gaffa914
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    I have a question
    If an outfield player goes in goal does he get penalty save points and save points?

    1. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I've seen outfield players credited with saves when they never even played in goal 🙂

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Yes. That happened in the past

    3. Tommy J
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I'm pretty sure he doesn't

      1. Tommy J
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        The rules say "for every 3 shots saved by a 'goalkeeper' "-by definition an outfield player is not a goalkeeper.

        I am not certain though.

        1. TeamSteam
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Saving a penalty as an outfield player awards you penalty save points.

  20. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    James B wonderful article as always. You raised the bar for other scouts.

    And now game talk:
    Hazard striker??

    1. FortunesAlwaysHiding
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Oscar up top I thought?

    2. Eden Hazardous
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Pedro IMO

  21. FortunesAlwaysHiding
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Costa dropped for being a thuggish sh**house?

    1. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No, just for being sh!t

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      We will play counter attacks I think, that's why Jose has done it imo.

    3. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Nay. Toby and Vert would have dealt with him. Hazard is a bit more nippy and having floaters like Pedro and Oscar could cause Spurs problems. A bit like Firmino Coutinho Lallana vs Man City.

    4. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      In essence, yes.

  22. Hypnos
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    remember Hazard as a false 9 last year? So much hype little end product

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      In the RDM days he was good in that role

    2. Eden Hazardous
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Oscar was false 9 last season
      Schurrle be4 that

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Roberto Di Mateo days!!! In the crucial CL league when we were chasing too

  23. Taffer
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Prediction - Hazard to still be awful

    1. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Wrong

      Put that in your pipe and smoke it

  24. Grounderz
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    What's the news on Firmino, folks?

    1. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      He dead

      1. Grounderz
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Dayum.

      2. Grounderz
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Did you kill him, Vader?

  25. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Feel I need ighalo

    Worth downgrading one of the below?

    A vardy
    B lukakku
    C Kane

    1. Jazz!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No way brain

    2. Hypnos
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      you need the other three just as much

    3. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Sell all three of them

      Bring in Odion and two 4.5s and just play him as your sole striker. You will be rewarded for your faith.

    4. ralfb
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      If you want to take risks, lukaku, due to high eo

    5. Trae44
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      No way

    6. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks all

      He is feckin menace not to have and them next two games..then there is kun..could be most interesting season for a while attacking wise eh

  26. Fishy
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    ot sure what my next move should be?.
    Any ideas?
    My team
    Hennesey ddg
    Belerin toby ake moreno wollscheid
    Sanchez ozil mahrez barkley firmino
    Vardy lukaku kane

  27. Shrimp On The Barb
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Haz up front.

    1. Shrimp On The Barb
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Bit late it seems, lol

    2. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Up front about what?

    3. Sailboats
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Oop essential. Absolute bargain at 10.9m

      /s

  28. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Wakey or WRover around?

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      *waves* at work though so may have to vanish anytime

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Working on a Sunday hateful stuff

      2. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Too late, subs done.
        6 points off top of Monthly grand in UFPL. 🙂

        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          nice. gl 🙂

          1. Gnu
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            8 pts covering the top 16 - going to be a real toss of the coin.

  29. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Any news on whether Benteke is likely to start?

    1. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Leaked line up has him starting

      1. Evs
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        What's this week leak looking like ?

        Normal BS is it ?!

        1. Optimus.
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          No Coutinho/Firmino, in comes Ibe/Benteke

        2. Saniul
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          In three years, he has got it wrong only about twice, so I guess he has his sources...

    2. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I don't think he fits into Klopps style of play

    3. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      yes if you believe the leaked team

  30. Eden Hazardous
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Berbinho makes a good point above that Pedro , Hazard and Willian might be like Firmino , Coutinho and Lallana against City