Home Bankers and Rampaging Visitors

Price Change Predictions

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Semenyo	BOU	7.5m	101.5%	Very Likely
Tavernier	BOU	5.5m	101.7%	Very Likely
Matheus N.	MCI	5.3m	101.7%	Very Likely
Palmer	CHE	10.3m	101.5%	Very Likely
Wilson	FUL	5.6m	95.1%	Maybe
Bowen	WHU	7.5m	92.0%	Unlikely
Gvardiol	MCI	5.9m	89.6%	Unlikely
Marc Guiu	CHE	4.2m	88.4%	Unlikely
Watkins	AVL	8.5m	84.5%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	80.5%	Unlikely
Ekitiké	LIV	8.6m	74.6%	Unlikely
Keane	EVE	4.6m	74.7%	Unlikely
Foden	MCI	8.8m	72.8%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.4m	70.6%	Unlikely
Andersen	FUL	4.6m	69.8%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	68.3%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	67.5%	Unlikely
Raya	ARS	6.0m	66.2%	Unlikely
Haaland	MCI	15.0m	65.5%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	62.8%	Unlikely
Tete	FUL	4.5m	61.9%	Unlikely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	61.8%	Unlikely
Dalot	MUN	4.4m	61.0%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	58.3%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	56.4%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	5.0m	56.0%	Unlikely
B.Fernandes	MUN	9.3m	50.1%	Unlikely
Guéhi	CRY	5.3m	50.3%	Unlikely
Cash	AVL	4.9m	51.2%	Unlikely
Van den Berg	BRE	4.5m	50.2%	Unlikely
Romero	TOT	5.0m	50.4%	Unlikely
James	CHE	5.6m	48.5%	Unlikely
Igor Jesus	NFO	5.8m	48.0%	Unlikely
Flemming	BUR	5.3m	47.7%	Unlikely
L.Miley	NEW	4.4m	39.9%	Unlikely
Pickford	EVE	5.5m	40.2%	Unlikely
Mount	MUN	5.9m	39.7%	Unlikely
Wilson	WHU	5.8m	39.4%	Unlikely
Leno	FUL	4.9m	38.4%	Unlikely
Cherki	MCI	6.5m	36.6%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Enzo	CHE	6.6m	118.1%	Very Likely
Lammens	MUN	5.1m	103.2%	Very Likely
Nallo	LIV	3.8m	101.7%	Very Likely
Woltemade	NEW	7.4m	99.4%	Likely
João Pedro	CHE	7.3m	100.6%	Very Likely
Elanga	NEW	6.6m	101.0%	Very Likely
Mayenda	SUN	5.3m	100.8%	Very Likely
Rodon	LEE	4.1m	100.7%	Very Likely
Muniz	FUL	5.4m	100.6%	Very Likely
Gudmundsson	LEE	3.9m	100.3%	Very Likely
Jordan	BUR	4.0m	99.5%	Maybe
Neave	NEW	4.4m	98.8%	Maybe
Irving	WHU	4.4m	95.8%	Maybe
McKenna	BOU	4.0m	94.8%	Unlikely
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.2%	Unlikely
Piroe	LEE	5.0m	93.1%	Unlikely
Balcombe	BRE	4.0m	93.4%	Unlikely
Bentley	WOL	4.0m	93.0%	Unlikely
Sels	NFO	4.7m	92.6%	Unlikely
Barnes	BUR	4.3m	93.0%	Unlikely
Broggio	AVL	4.5m	92.4%	Unlikely
Morgan	BRE	4.4m	92.9%	Unlikely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	91.9%	Unlikely
Kulusevski	TOT	6.4m	91.2%	Unlikely
Tasker	BHA	3.9m	89.5%	Unlikely
Barnes	NEW	6.3m	87.5%	Unlikely
Worrall	BUR	3.9m	88.7%	Unlikely
Nørgaard	ARS	5.2m	88.8%	Unlikely
Munetsi	WOL	5.4m	86.1%	Unlikely
Webster	BHA	4.4m	86.3%	Unlikely
Danso	TOT	4.3m	86.3%	Unlikely
Benitez	CRY	4.0m	86.1%	Unlikely
Yarmoliuk	BRE	5.0m	87.1%	Unlikely
Coleman	EVE	4.3m	85.7%	Unlikely
McAtee	NFO	5.1m	86.0%	Unlikely
Gakpo	LIV	7.4m	83.9%	Unlikely
Jair Cunha	NFO	4.3m	84.3%	Unlikely
Aina	NFO	4.7m	83.6%	Unlikely
Fitzgerald	MUN	4.4m	84.0%	Unlikely
Bevan	BOU	3.9m	83.3%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Alisson	LIV	C
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	C, Sus
Up	Kelleher	BRE	C, Vs
Down	Ramsdale	NEW	C
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:16am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	C
No Change	Jurriën Timber	ARS	C, Inj
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	C
Up	Andersen	FUL	C
Up	Marc Guehi	CRY	A
Up	van den Berg	BRE	C, Vs
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	A
No Change	Milenkovic	NFO	C
No Change	van Hecke	BHA	A
No Change	Mukiele	SUN	C, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:28am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	B
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	A
No Change	Foden	MCI	A
No Change	Semenyo	BOU	C
Up	Szoboszlai	LIV	C
No Change	Minteh	BHA	B
No Change	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	A
No Change	Schade	BRE	C, Vs, Sus
No Change	Anderson	NFO	B, £

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:34am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	B
No Change	Thiago	BRE	A, Vs
No Change	Mateta	CRY	C
Up	Ekitiké	LIV	B
Down	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
Down	Woltemade	NEW	B

Last updated: 13 Dec, 2025 10:43am

One of the axioms of the English Premier League is that teams are better at home than away. I wanted to quantify by how much and looked at the goal and clean sheet data from 2011-2015.

Defence

Overall as expected the league is on average better at home than away by 32%. Highlights for me here are:

· Of the traditional top six, Tottenham and Everton really are much better at home and surprisingly they are joined by Manchester City and Chelsea, of whom I expect most would trust their defenders both home and away

· Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Southampton do seem to have defenders you can play much more reliably both home and away

· Of typically cheaper defenders Stoke, Swansea, Sunderland seem good targets for playing at home

Attack

Again the league is on average 32% better at home. Highlights for me:

· Manchester City, Everton and Southampton suggest captaincy is best at home, with Man City being a real surprise for me here.

· Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool are relatively reliable options both home and away

Promoted sides

Excluded are Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich due to much smaller amount of data, although Norwich has a few seasons:

Team	Clean Sheets	Goals
Bournemouth	0.00	-20.00
Norwich	233.33	30.00
Watford	400.00	-45.45

Norwich defenders you really should only play at home. Watford has shown a lot more resilience at home this season but that is also reflected with a lot more goals scored away. Bournemouth has also scored more away, bucking the league average for 15 weeks.

Hopefully the overall the charts are a good reference for people going forward when considering rotation and captaincy.

J0E

10 years, 14 days ago

Cheers for this. Illuminating stuff.

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Will - Fantasy Football Hub

Very useful. Thanks!

Amarea

Very interesting indeed! Makes me rethink who I bench in defence each week, for sure, and probably attack too.

Reedy

It's nice to get a long-term perspective on this. Cheers!

Donkey_Sanctuary

This looks interesting but it seems to be lacking a measure of quantity of clean sheets. For example Clean Sheets Home vs Away shows the percentage difference clean sheets Home vs Away. However, what it doesn't show is whether a team is getting an above average number of clean sheets at home or away or both or neither! e.g. MUN are categorised somewhere in the middle of being 'Resilient Visitors' whilst EVE are categorised as being a fairly strong 'Home Banker'. In reality EVE are probably pretty bad away and quite good at home. Whereas MUN are probably quite good at home but even better away and shouldn't be excluded from the 'Home Banker' category by virtue of the fact they are also 'Resilient Visitors'

Likewise AVL seem to be the anomaly that actually have more away clean sheets than home clean sheets. However, it's hard to tell if they are above average away and average at home (and therefore good overall) or if they are average away and dreadful at home (and therefore bad overall)

rakkhi
10 years, 14 days ago
Yeah I thought about including number or average clean sheets and goals per season but in the end wanted to focus on the home vs away. Easy enough numbers to look up though and the usual suspects get more of both.

AVL are just bad overall it's something like 12 CS away to 11 home across 4 and a bit seasons
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Lazarus Star

Nice article. I usual favour a home side for defenders (and likewise decisions on attackers) it's good to have finer stats that show the variance between the chances of a Liverpool Away clean sheet and a Spurs Away chance of a clean sheet. Cheers.

littlebig

10 years, 9 days ago

Excellent article

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