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22 December 2015 16 comments
Kavali Kavali
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Gameweek 17 is now over, and after Part One of this article, where we were focused on Gameweek transfers and captancy options, now it’s time to see the results of how Fantasy Premier League’s veterans fared.

Just to remind you, I took a sample of 34 teams, consisting of those who are leading or have been leading Fantasy Football Scout’s Hall of Fame as well as the Moderators & Contributors League.

The main idea is to see how these teams progress in what is emerging as one of the strangest and most unpredictable Fantasy seasons. The early evidence is that this season is already taking its toll on this bunch of veterans, many of whom have multiple top 10,000 finishes under their belts but are struggling this season.

Latest analysis of the current Top 10,000 shows that almost all (96,72%) have not finished within the Top 10,000 before.  This article aims to track what is happening to those veterans and why this season has been so tough for them.

Overall Rankings

After Gameweek 16, average overall position of all 34 veteran teams was 185,697 but by the end of  Gameweek 17 their average overall position had plummeted to 244,833. Just two teams managed a green arrow, with the rest seeing red.

The main reason for this huge drop maybe lays in  old habits. Veterans are more likely to distrust new players to Fantasy Premier League. This was clearly showed in their captain choices, as outlined in Part One of this article. Almost all of them captained the reliable Romelu Lukaku, who has proven himself over a number of seasons. Just one manager “risked” going with Riyad Mahrez, a relative newcomer to the Premier League.

Watford’s Odion Ighalo is another to be ignored by many of the veterans. While he sits happily in 60% of current top 10,000 ranks managers teams, just 11.76% of our veterans have him.

Christmas may be chance for our 34 veterans to gain ground. Just under a third of them saved a transfer in Gameweek 17, which means they go into the busy festive fixtures with a chance to freshen up their squads.

But how good are these veterans’ transfer decisions? When we looked at most recent transfers among the veterans (also in Part One), none of their Gameweek 17 purchases  scored more than three points.

Most Populars Players

Goalkeepers

Jack Butland (67.65%)
Alex McCarthy (41.18%)

Defenders

Alberto Moreno (79.41%)
Aleksandar Kolarov (52.94%)
Hector Bellerin (52.94%)
Craig Dawson (32.35%)
Toby Alderweireld (32.35%)

Midfielders

Kevin De Bruyne (94.12%)
Riyad Mahrez (91.18%)
Mesut Ozil (85.29%)
Ross Barkley (38.23%)
Andre Ayew, Aaron Ramsey, Sadio Mane (20.59%)

Forwards

Romelu Lukaku (97.06%)
Harry Kane (91.18%)
Jamie Vardy (85.29%)

Conclusions

Harry Kane is a man that is heavily backed by our veterans. His strong fixture in Gameweek 18 (NOR) could be the fillip they need, as just 21.9% of managers in the current top 10,000 have him.

Ighalo remains a millstone around their neck though, as a whopping 60.5% in the top 10,000 have the Watford man. It is most likely that, after Ighalo’s strong form and constant price rises, plenty of managers in the top 10,000 will decide to keep him. This means a key Christmas battle in the war between veterans and the current top 10,000 managers is likely to centre on Watford and Spurs’ key strikers.

Kavali `In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.`

16 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    To see why my season is so bad in black and white is both depressing and liberating. Here's to Kane teaching Ighalo a lesson or two in festive goal scoring. 🙂

    1. Spectrum-FFS Doubles Champ
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Well said sir

      1. Colonel Wasabi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        You take that right back, young man !

        Call me a casual but pretty smug about picking Ighalo when I did and had some rewarding armbands.

        The acid test will be knowing when to move him on though......

        1. Colonel Wasabi
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          *admits to being outside the top 10,000 so not really "one of them" either 😉

    2. bibi
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Kinda like the patience we had for Aguero before his 5 goals wonder. Kane and Spurs certainly have the potential for that.

      I think it's down to if the "new" Chelsea can teach the red hot Watford a lesson Vs. if the in form but not quite consistent Spurs can teach Norwich a lesson

      I am prepared to double down on the left hand side and invest in a Chelsea defender as opposed to buying Igalo.

      I am around 200k, I feel that this move could either save my season or sink it

  2. Doolittle
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    While my season hasn't been bad (until the last 2 weeks), not having Ighalo has been brutal. Can't really justify not having him when looking at the stats, I guess we're stuck in our ways!

  3. Ziegler1988
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    No one in the top 10k will dump Ighalo and none of us chasing will get him with those fixtures, should be interesting

    1. Gideons Rolling Another One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      The gap will either increase or decrease!

      1. Ziro Becomes One
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        This!

        Us vs Them!

        Kane vs Ighalo. The weeks which will define our seasons!

  4. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    I have had Ighalo since GW7, which has been wonderful. I am however considering benching him this GW, partly because I feel Chelsea are resurgent and partly because NOT playing him if he blanks could be a bit of a differential. Is this crazy talk?

    1. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      on my bench too. worked against arsenal, backfired against man utd. not sure about a chelsea resurgence yet but they were solid enough at home even in mourinho's last games

      1. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I benched him against WHam GW11, and obviously regretted it, but that was back when missing an Iggy haul wasn't gonna ruin your GW.

  5. Stephen - Robot Daniels
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Reliance on the old guard. This player or team has done well in the past so will come good, weeks go on and they never do.

    "XXXX is killing me" but they still don't own him even with the lack of form players, it's not as if we are spoilt for choice.

    Easily observed by people defaulting back to their comfort blanket players at every small opportunity like Aguero and Hazard.

    Now it's dawned on people, they are too late to the bandwagons, everyone owns them so it's hard to catch up.

  6. KickIt
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    This veteran profile fits my team and performance like a glove, in fact I am also at the overall average position too (248,707), which is way down on my usual performance.

    The problem I see is that the usual tactics have not yet worked, cheap bandwagons continue to produce and the traditional big hitters continue to fail. Experience tells us that while there will always be the 'hidden gem' such as Mahrez in a season but for the rest a regression to norm can be expected........but that is not yet happening.

    Ighalo is a great example, we see how involved he is in all Watford's goals and expect him to be 'found out' at some point and go on a run of '1s' and '2s'. You would expect some double marking and drop in production but it hasn't happened yet.

    Add others like Vardy to the mix and basically everyone can afford the same template team devoid of any real big hitters and it is a team that regularly produces. Suddenly with a score of 60-70 in a GW I am still dropping rank while before I would be getting green arrows each week!!

    For me I have decided that experience is there for a reason and perhaps January transfer market will come to the rescue. If some of these gems get snatched by bigger teams for a life on the bench or even upset by transfer rumors then perhaps this expected drop in performance will occur. Also factor in some potential for big money ($$$) signings coming to shake up the template and even more likely a return of the expensive big hitters (Aguero, Sanchez).

    If some of these factors occur I have accumulated some serious funds to build a team containing multiple big hitters. I also have the important special chips left for the expected DGW, so can wildcard, triple captain and bench boost my way back up the rankings!!

    The battle may be lost at the moment, but the war isn't. This is always a marathon and not a race!

    1. Captain Blanks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Excellent comment! The point about scoring 60-70 and still getting red arrows highlights that it is owning pretty much all of a very narrow band of highly owned players consistently performing that has been the key to having a good rank/green arrows. None of the less owned, more expensive differentials have delivered often enough to break the mould.

      I picked out this team from the FFS members league http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/30336/event-history/17/ who scored 77 this week and still ended up with a red arrow, despite owning MOST of these type of player AND getting the captaincy decision correct with mahrez.

      It would seem that all of his/her highly owned players (within top 10k) scored well and that it was the more expensive, less owned KDB and Eriksen (2, 3) that proved the differentiator compared to teams with the highly owned likes of Barkley and Alderweireld (9, 6)

  7. SPFC
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    This topic made me a big doubt. To what extent it is worth buying Ozil for my team considering I already have seven of the most popular in my team + Ighalo?