Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results. As usual I’ll be looking ahead to key captaincy options, match predictions, clean sheets and a look back to see how my previous predictions fared.
Captaincy Options
The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fraction bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds.
- Harry Kane 1. Sergio Aguero (6/10) 1.60
- Riyad Mahrez 2. Harry Kane (5/6) 1.83
- Sergio Aguero 3. Romelu Lukaku (23/20) 2.15
- Kevin De Bruyne 4. Eden Hazard (7/5) 2.40
- Romelu Lukaku 5. Olivier Giroud (29/20) 2.45
- Mesut Ozil 6. Kevin De Bruyne (8/5) 2.60
- Odion Ighalo 7. Riyad Mahrez (2/1) 3.00
- Bojan 8. Bojan (12/5) 3.40
- Eden Hazard 9. Odion Ighalo (11/4) 3.75
- Olivier Giroud 10. Mesut Ozil (3/1) 4.00
Captaincy Analysis:
Harry Kane leaps to the top of the FFScout captaincy poll with a potential resurgence in form and a plum fixture (NOR) added to his appeal this week. Sergio Aguero, despite only returning from injury, and looking lacklustre against Arsenal, jumps up to third in the poll, with (SUN) likely to be the main reason behind this. From a betting angle, they look too short to back in my opinion. Looking elsewhere, the following two did the business for me last week and I’m backing them again at very tempting prices.
- Riyad Mahrez (liv) – Form vs Fixture? Well he certainly has form, that’s not in doubt, his away stats are frightening to say the least. Fixture-wise, Liverpool have been poor defensively in their last three games and conceded three against Watford last time out. Adam Bogdan will likely remain behind the sticks and as his display against Watford showed he looks vulnerable. Couple all this with penalties in his locker and Mahrez could be an outstanding captaincy choice this weekend.
- Odion Ighalo (che) – The second choice this week offers up another classic form vs fixture decision. When Watford score, Ighalo is involved and despite Gus Hiddink being put in charge for the rest of the season, I’m predicting an upset (but more on that later). Ighalo has scored more goals in 2015 than anyone else, in any league in the World, that is incredible and gives FPL managers a differential captaincy choice.
Clean Sheets
(in order, decimals on the right):
Man City (¾) 1.75
Chelsea (EVS) 2.00
Tottenham (11/10) 2.10
Swansea (6/5) 2.20
Man Utd (6/4) 2.50
Arsenal (17/10) 2.70
Aston Villa (9/5) 2.80
Bournemouth (15/8) 2.87
West Ham (15/8) 2.87
Liverpool (2/1) 3.00
Stoke (21/10) 3.10
Everton (7/5) 3.40
Crystal Palace (5/2) 3.50
West Brom (13/5) 3.60
Newcastle (3/1) 4.00
Southampton (3/1) 4.00
Leicester (4/1) 5.00
Watford (5/1) 6.00
Norwich (6/1) 7.00
Sunderland (9/1) 10.00
Gameweek 18 Preview – The Matches
Odds for each team to win in brackets followed by a score prediction and mini-analysis:
Stoke (23/10) vs Man Utd (13/10) – 1-1- The return of Smalling into the United defence is a big boost for the Red Devils, Stoke have faltered slightly after a dramatic win against Man City and I think the spoils will be shared in a low scoring contest.
Swansea (19/20) vs West Brom (16/5) – 2-1 – The last four meetings between these sides have featured three or more goals and the trend looks good to continue with the overs market looking very short in price. Swansea are desperate for a confidence-boosting win and I’ll think they’ll get it here.
Aston Villa (13/8) vs West Ham (9/5) – 1-1 – Aston Villa have a good record against West Ham at home and there were little signs of improvement for me against Newcastle, West Ham are still missing key players and Dimitri Payet cannot come back quick enough. Both teams to cancel each other out, in what could well be a drab affair.
Bournemouth (29/20) vs Crystal Palace (19/10) – 2-3- Thiss could be the game of the day in my opinion, the dynamics will suit Crystal Palace perfectly and their away form will see them grab the three points.
Liverpool (19/20) vs Leicester (13/5) – 1-3 – I’ve backed Riyad Mahrez in the captaincy options and he could be the difference between the two teams here, Liverpool, quite frankly, look toothless all over the pitch, how will Klopp set up his team? Similar to versus Man City, which would then have the potential for an open-high scoring game.
Chelsea (2/5) vs Watford (7/1) – 1-2 – I’m backing Watford to do the business at a fantastic price (7/1), Watford will test Chelsea far more than Sunderland did and Ighalo looks primed for points once again, in my opinion.
Man City (1/5) vs Sunderland (12/1) – 4-1 – No Kompany, no clean sheet? We’ll stick to that mantra this week so keep an ear out on any early team news hints. Man City will be looking to bounce back after tasting defeat to Arsenal and once the first goal goes in, the floodgates could open.
Tottenham (4/9) vs Norwich (6/1) – 3-1 – I really rate Norwich and expected them to get something against Manchester United but Tottenham offer a different challenge altogether. A lack of striking options continues to hurt Norwich and Tottenham have enough quality to see off the Canaries quite comfortably
Newcastle (21/10) vs Everton (13/10) -1-2- Lukaku has the fixture to continue his great scoring record and push ever closer to Jamie Vardy’s consecutive scoring record. I feel Newcastle will really go for this one which could well backfire on them, it will leave the space for Everton’s attacking midfielders to exploit.
Southampton (13/5) vs Arsenal (11/10) – 1-2- Southampton are unbeaten at home against the Gunners in the last three meetings but are in a real slump of form right now. Arsenal looked good against Manchester City in Gameweek 17 and will look to push on. The problem I feel with the Saints, is that teams have worked out how to deal with their striker Graziano Pelle and it’s costing them.
Tip: Mahrez anytime + Ighalo anytime @ 10.25/1
Last Week’s Predictions
Finally, a quick look back to see how last week’s predictions fared.
Gameweek 17
- Six of the top 10 in the FFScout captaincy poll delivered attacking returns this week.
- Four times in a row now where only one of the top five most likely to keep a clean sheet did just that.
- Ighalo and Mahrez delivered for the two captaincy options on offer with just a Wijnaldum goal letting the anytime 26/1 tip down.
- YMA correctly predicted five out of the 10 games including a Watford win against Liverpool.
