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What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 30

9 March 2016 55 comments
Your Mum's Athletic Your Mum's Athletic
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There may be limited fixtures in Gameweek 30 but there is far from limited interest from bookmakers in this weekend’s Premier League clashes. Here I take a look at what the bookmakers’ odds are suggesting in terms of goalscorers and clean sheet potential. For those wanting to see how my predictions for Gameweek 29 did, click here.

Captaincy Options

Here is the top 10 in the FFSscout Captaincy poll, followed by their fractional odds to score any time, with the decimal odds on the far right

  1. Sergio Aguero      3/4       1.75
  2. Harry Kane        21/20     2.05
  3. Riyad Mahrez      7/4        2.75
  4. Jamie Vardy       EVS        2.00
  5. Josh King            2/1         3.00
  6. Gylfi Sigurdsson   16/5      4.20
  7. Alexis Sanchez N/A
  8. Mesut Ozil N/A
  9. Dele Alli              9/5            2.80
  10. Christian Eriksen       9/5    2.80

Aguero versus Kane

The key captaincy discussion among many of the FFScout community this week is whether to opt for Kane or Aguero. They are clearly the two stand-out choices, with form and fixtures firmly on their side. But for me I think the dynamic of Spurs’ encounter with a lacklustre Aston Villa swings it in Kane’s favour. Villa surely cannot sit deep like an away team at home and try to counter. They don’t have the players to do that and as the home team they will be expected to attack.

The City game is slightly different, Norwich have been relatively tighter at home, especially compared with Villa and although City will likely come out with the win, Kane has a higher ceiling of potential points. Based on this and the bookies’ odds Kane is my choice for the armband this week. For further insight into the Kane versus Aguero debate, courtesy of Don Corleone, click here.

Clean Sheets

Tottenham 19/20 – 1.95

Bournemouth 5/4 – 2.25

Leicester 5/4 – 2.25

Man City 11/8 – 2.37

Stoke 9/5 – 2.80

Southampton 9/5 – 2.80

Swansea 11/4 – 3.75

Aston Villa 9/2 – 5.50

Newcastle 9/2 – 5.50

Norwich 5/1 – 6.00

The Matches

(using fluctuating odds as a guide)

Norwich (9/2) vs Man City (6/10) – Away win & BTTS

Bournemouth (19/20) vs Swansea (16/5) – over 2.5 goals

Stoke (7/4) vs Southampton (7/4) – under 2.5 goals

Aston Villa (6/1) vs Tottenham (½) – away win & over 2.5 goals

Leicester (6/10) vs Newcastle (9/2) – home win & under 2.5 goals

55 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks for this - welcome return to the community article section. Kane looks the frontrunner for me too.

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      cheers Jonty, been a while, bet the editing was horrendous 😉

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Smoother than Austin Powers on the pull at a Carnarby Street nightclub. Hardly any changes to make. 🙂

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        1. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          I also like to live dangerously........ guess the lack of fixtures helped 🙂 cheers again

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  2. drughi
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Kane (C) here, villa has given up. Norwich is still fighting

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  3. RustyBz
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Norwich tighter at home? Haven't they conceded 15 in their last 5 home games?

    1-2 Chelsea

    2-2 West Ham

    0-3 Spurs

    4-5 Liverpool

    0-3 City

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    1. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Ya, feeling this article is very biased towards Kane(c).

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      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        it's not meant to sound biased 🙁

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        1. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Nothing against you YMA.

          Its the first time i have a complaint really. If i wanted my readers to lean towards Kun, i could even say that the bookies are heavily backing Kun.

          We can tilt it as you want it, and in this case it just sounds to me like a non-neutral read.

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          1. Your Mum's Athletic
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 9 months ago

            Put it down to being rusty having not done them for abit 😛 i'm glad your ctrl + c + v buttons can rest easy this week 😆

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            1. Lateriser 12
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 9 months ago

              I hope its until the end of the season. 😉

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              1. Your Mum's Athletic
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 9 months ago

                if i can keep getting my 2-3 hours on a monday or tuesday, i'll keep banging them out 🙂

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        2. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Glad this article is back. Had to copy paste odds every week in your absence 😀

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    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Both have been horrendous of late but it's more of a comparison with Villa, Norwich, in my opinion, have the ability to keep it tighter than Villa will be able to against Tottenham

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      1. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Agreed on this. But i'm also thinking Kane could share more points while City's points will go to Kun.

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      2. RustyBz
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        I think you may be right, plus Norwich will still be fighting with a bit of hope.

        However Norwich's form has been notoriously awful, and will probably be the reason they go down. They tend to attack and get heavily out done at Home whilst away they can set up shop a bit better.

        Plus Kun is a much better player than Kane & most of City's points will go to Kun whilst Alli/Eriksen/Kane will probably share.

        Kun(C) for me!

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        1. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Its a really close call and i think Vardy/Riyad are still in it too.

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          1. RustyBz
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 9 months ago

            I think Leicester will be winning by much tighter margins from now on, they're getting a bit more cautious in their play I feel

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        2. RustyBz
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          Home form***

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        3. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 9 months ago

          both are really good options this week, may as well toss a coin it's that tight. the article hopefully encourages debate so this a good thing 🙂

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          1. RustyBz
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 9 months ago

            They are indeed.

            I think the article is great, thank you for the effort! I just thought I'd point out the Norwich home form thing because they were actually talking about it on the TalkSport the other day

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            1. Your Mum's Athletic
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 9 months ago

              thanks for the feedback, always welcome. i need to listen too talksport abit more, colin murray has a good show i've heard?

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              1. RustyBz
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 9 months ago

                I usually catch Alan Brazil in the breakfast show and Adrian Durham on Drive because of my commute to work!

                Collin Murray's is very good also.

                I enjoy it - don't always agree with what they say but its pretty insightful

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    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      But Man City have only scored 13 in 13 away matches

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      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Their away form is quite poor agreed, another reason to perhaps look elsewhere for the armband, i seem to remember earlier on in the season, Norwich drawing with Arsenal and some of the big teams, they can shut them out, which you can't say for Villa right now

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  4. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Except, Kun is twice the player Kane is.

    Kun has form too. Highest number of goals in 2016.

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    1. Kings of Lyon ★
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Im with you. Just glad I own both

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  5. CAPTAIN BLACKLIST
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great Job YMA, delighted to see this article return - my favourite! Certainly gives food for thought in the Kane v Kun debate, how do you see Magic Mahrez against them?

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      thanks captain, both are fantastic options this week. Mahrez is certainly someone i'd be looking at if he was still on pens but Leicester will now be happy to pick up 1-0 wins and scrape out results, i feel a higher ceiling of points towards the other 2 main guys makes them better candidates

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      1. CAPTAIN BLACKLIST
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Very true, I guess this week it's less about the options themselves and more about the standard of opposition - Norwich still fighting and only conceded 6 in their last four whereas Villa have shipped 15 in the same time and have completely given up which leans me towards Kane but you could also argue that Spurs goals will be much more spread about whereas Kun likely to dominate all the points for City

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  6. Kings of Lyon ★
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great article

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      cheers KOL

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  7. Prøphet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Finally it is back 😛 Shorter than usual, but i will let you slide with that 😀

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      shorter than usual? blame the fixtures 😛 😀

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      1. Prøphet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Want your take on bets 😛 Fixtures it is! 😀

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  8. pax888
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    How does this rate for GW30?

    Schmeichal
    Williams Shawcross Targett
    Eriksen Sigurdsson Mahrez Alli
    Aguero Kane Vardy

    Hennessey Ozil Ivanovic Dawson

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero or Kane captain? 😆

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      1. pax888
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Not a clue!

        Have 3 Spurs so tempted to go Aguero to lessen the risk.

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    2. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Really good team. Any transfer left? I don't know if Targett will play.

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      1. pax888
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        Unfortunately not.

        Only defender I wouldn't mind is Daniels but it would be for 1 week pretty much so not too bothered.

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  9. ☻ Jon Snow ☻
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Just wondering what the Europa match against Dortmund a couple of days before AVL could do to Kane..

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      definitely a wait and see on the lineup but i think Poch will take it very seriously, it's a big game for the club. There was an article saying that Tottenham are now running more miles round the pitch than earlier on in the season, so their work rate isn't an issue. Think they play strong sides in both i reckon

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  10. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Play one:

    A- Schmeicel
    B- Butland

    Play one:

    1- Arnie
    2- Sigurdsson

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      A2

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      1. The Man Pastore
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 9 months ago

        this

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  11. Clump
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great stuff YMA.

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  12. Snibal
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great to see this article back again. But 1,75 for Aguero vs 2.00 for Kane means the bookies rate Aguero's changes of scoring better right if they pay less for Kun?

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    1. RustyBz
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      yes

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    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah, putting £1 on each of them will get you 75p if Aguero scores, and £1.05 if Kane scores.

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  13. Samirich
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Looking at the fixtures Spurs face the easier opponent but then Kane usually looks tired after Europa League games and then Aguero has a crucial champions league game in midweek. I'm currently on Aguero but might change it to Kane if he doesn't play 90 minutes against Dortmund.

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  14. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Pleased this is back as a full article. Good work!

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  15. lahi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great to have this back 😀 Neat stuff as always.

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  16. Bibelnissen
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Really happy to see this article make a return. Great stuff, YMA 🙂

    I do think that Villa will concede more goals than Norwich this week, but I also think that Kane, Eriksen, Alli and maybe even Lamela will share the points, whereas Aguero will be the one to benefit at City. Also I was burnt the last time I went Kane over Aguero based on logical thinking (when Kane had WAT and Aguero had LEI), and those that did when Kane had SUN and Aguero had CRY were also burnt, so this time I'm just gonna back Aguero to do the business like he always does when I doubt him.

    This also made me feel less shaky about my 5-2-3 this week, as four of my back five has under 2.5 for a CS, with the GK just above.

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  17. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Really we thinking more about kane because of villa not because of his own form.spurs never play that well after Thursday night game.aguero might be a safer option.

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  18. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 9 months ago

    Great to see this article back, YMA. Thanks.

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