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18 March 2016 105 comments
Ryan Ryan
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With the announcement of rescheduled games and when the double Gameweeks will fall a range of strategies have been put forward to getting the most out of this busy end to the season. A popular strategy is to Wildcard in Gameweek 33 to take advantage of a bench boost chip in Gameweek 34. But I believe this strategy could be tweaked to bring in even bigger returns by bringing forward that Wildcard to Gameweek 32. Here I weigh up two key arguments for getting a strong Gameweek 34 team in place even earlier. 

Fixtures

To me the biggest attraction is that many of the double Gameweek 34 teams have very strong Gameweek 32 fixtures.

Good fixtures 

Arsenal (WAT)
West Ham (CPL)
Man City (bou)
Newcastle (nor)
West Brom (sun)

Poor fixtures

Liverpool (TOT)
Man Utd (EVE)

Now exploring the poor fixtures requires a little more thought. Before I talk about Liverpool players I want us to consider the situation with Man Utd, Everton, Watford and West Ham. These four teams are packed with fantastic double Gameweek options but unfortunately they also suffer from blanks in Gameweek 35. As a result we are limited to only four players from these teams where one must be a goalkeeper, so they can be benched in Gameweek 35.

I imagine many will have their eye on Dimitri Payet and Romelu Lukaku. Payet has a great fixture, while Lukaku not so much. Taking into account one spot being a goalkeeper, that may leave one other player who might even be another West Ham player with an easy fixture. It could even be a Manchester United defender who you’d probably want to start due to their strong home defensive record (nine clean sheets in 14). Lukaku might be the only player you have from these teams that has a bad fixture in Gameweek 32. The fact that people are considering selling Vardy for Lukaku ahead of Gameweek 31 with a free transfer confirms many consider him fixture proof anyway.

So what about our three Liverpool players? Again we need to consider what sort of players we will have from Liverpool. Will we even have three Liverpool players? Will some of them be bench-able?

Statistically Liverpool’s defence is very good. They have conceded just 16 shots inside the box in the last  four Gameweeks, second only to Man City. This doesn’t bode particularly well for our Tottenham assets. I imagine most of us have Dele Alli and Harry Kane, whom we will likely drop when we Wildcard. But if we wait until Gameweek 33 then we’d have to play them against Liverpool: not an easy fixture.

To me this cancels out getting in two Liverpool players in Gameweek 32 as you are swapping two players with a tough fixture and no double Gameweek for two with the same tricky fixture but crucially key players for double Gameweek 34.

To me the biggest attraction of a Gameweek 32 Wildcard is the strong fixtures for Arsenal (WAT) and West Ham(CPL). Of these two teams I only have Mesut Ozil so the chance to have say five players from these two teams is worth exploring. The players we will be looking at will likely include Alexis Sanchez and Dimitri Payet: potential captaincy options. Gameweek 32 might also include some easy clean sheet opportunities for a West Brom (sun) or Newcastle (nor) defender, not to mention Man City (bou) as well.

Price Changes

Secondly, there is the issue of price changes. By jumping the gun early you’ll be ahead of all the price rises for Double Gameweek players giving you time to think carefully about your players without having to be rushed into rash moves.

How this works with transfers is that it leaves you with two free transfers until the double Gameweek. One of these you will need to save for the Gameweek 35 blanks, leaving you with a ‘floating transfer’. This can be used in either Gameweek 33 or 34, perhaps either to swap out an injured player or to use it strategically perhaps to hold onto Riyad Mahrez (sun) for one more Gameweek.

Ryan Keeping it simple is underrated Follow them on Twitter

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  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Certainly got me thinking. Liverpool's on paper poor game is tricky, but if Arsenal can turn it around this could really pay dividends.

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Its a tricky fixture for both Tottenham assets and Liverpool assets really. So if we WC in GW33 we will have Kane and Alli for their trip to Anfield which imo is by no means easy.

  2. Hakchak
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Good article... certainly an option

  3. oghash
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    If you plan to wc for 34, makes perfect sense to do it in 32

  4. GRIMANDI [formerly boring M…
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    I'm looking at this for shizzle

  5. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Thanks Ryan

  6. BuK II
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Really interesting.

    The key for me is the form of Aresenal, Liverpool and Man City. They will provide the bulk of the early WC teams so the question is will they keep pace with Tottenham and Leicester assets in the SGWs to justify the switch?

  7. I think GW32 will be a popular option as many like to get in early, though I can see if the team flops in GW32 and GW33 there will panic transfers ahoy for GW34.

  8. Sjaugen
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Awesome work Ryan. Brain food for the brain 😛

  9. _Freddo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Well done for thinking for people and dumbing down the game for the stupid, this site really is the pits.

    1. Ziro Becomes One
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      you need some pills of your own.

    2. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      +1... most of the ML now have FFsers which means a lot more competition... now almost coming down to luck of the draw more then anything...

      1. Fitzy.
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, I'm sure it was a lot more fun for you when you were the only one using the site and your rivals had to think for themselves. Seems a tad unfair that you don't have as much of an advantage these days...

  10. Ziro Becomes One
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    On the price rises, I think due to the international break, price rises will be slower as always.

    Also, what about injuries in the internationals? Very often a player will not be completely ruled out but there will be a doubt hanging on his injury, a later WC after the player has played will be helpful in assessing his fitness ahead of the DGWs. One of the counters to this I often hear is that there will be an additional FT. But why would you want to waste an FT which you could have avoided by WCing a week later?

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Price rises will be slower, but thats a good thing as they'll be crazy fast in GW33 and you'll be rushed into making decisions really early in the GW. If you buy them in a GW32 WC they will certainly be cheaper than if you buy them in the GW33 WC.

      You'll have the whole international break to deal with injuries with your WC. The pressers leading into GW32 should give enough information regarding injuries. 1FT will simply cover that one week after GW32 when others are using their WC. It could even be saved into the leadup for the DGW whereas those who WC in GW33 won't be able to make an emergency transfer in the leadup to the DGW as they have to save their FT for the blank GW.

  11. Prøphet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Great stuff, was thinking something along those lines as well. Might actually decide to use the WC in gw 32, also the international break injuries can be handled way easier because you are on the WC.

  12. McQueen
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    If I WC in GW33 some of my ML rivals won't have time to react (some of them don't know you can use only one chip in one GW., don't want them to copy my team if I WC in GW32) 😉 😉

    Otherwise great option!

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah I suppose 'showing your hand early' could be an issue if they are ahead of you and you know they would simply copy your side. I suspect this is a rare and unlikely scenario though.

      1. McQueen
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Of course Ryan, very unlikely scenario. I really like your points you're making, might as well do it GW32 and don't bother with my rivals. 🙂 At least we have one more option to choose from. 😉

  13. Unsuccessful
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Very interesting thanks.

    I'm trying to find a differential strategy to avoid the spectre of playing an identical game as many switched-on managers in the last few weeks.

    I'm trying to figure out if WC32/33, TC34, BB37 leads to any workable scenarios.

    However I'm also becoming insanely paranoid about giving the game away to my ML rivals and letting then in on BBDGW34.

    1. MaxiRobriguez
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Depends on your current team, if you've been planning for a few weeks already then it's very possible to get a team of 8-9 DGWers and 2-3 SGWers in 34 which will match anyone who wildcards, whilst still holding key Spurs and Leicester assets who will prove their worth in 35. You then have all the flexibility in the world after to use the wildcard how you need. If you're 20pts away from your ML, then you might want to play less risky and hope the BB chip which others have used is enough. If you're 40-50pts behind, then you can play fast and loose and take bigger gambles. Keeping the WC to later affords that possibility.

      But, ultimately, I think whether to WC early or later depends on three things:
      1) Can you get in at least 8x DGW without hits for 34.
      2) Are you chasing in your ML
      3) Can you afford to watch key assets price fluctuate? (aka, do you have big enough TV/SV to absorb changes)

      3x yes answers = WC 36, BB 37.
      3x no answers = WC 32/33, BB 34

      And if you're somewhere in the middle then find out what works best for you.

  14. scarlet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    This does appear like a good option other than these two issues:

    GW32 WC will expose your strategy to any rival prior allowing them to cover in GW33.

    We may not hear about the rearranged date for the CPL v EVE fixture which would certainly affect how many of their assets i bring in with my WC.

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      I think that last point is most significant. However assuming Everton and Palace have the blank in GW35 people are still prepared to WC in GW33. It would only help those doing the GW32/33 WC if that last fixture were to fall back into GW35 giving us more options.

      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        You'd also assume the fixture announcement will happen before the end of the international break.

    2. Jonny JAB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      With the double EVE and CPL game in GW33 I think the case for a GW32 WC has gotten much stronger! Allows me to bring Lukaku/Lennon/possibly EVE defender too in now for the rest of the season.

      Think I'm gonna stay away from CPL, maybe will bring Hennessey back in to help with TV. Dann to consider due to ownage but CPL have been shocking in recent weeks so won't get lulled in to buying Bolasie/Cabaye/Wickham.

  15. Weeb Kakashi
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    This Ryan guy is Very smart!

    Be like Ryan

    Great stuff!

  16. Samurai Blue
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Nice article. Well done.

  17. Woeisme
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Very good article Ryan. i'm not 100% convinced that its the way to go, but the argument is very well made.
    I'd +1 it if I Could 🙂

  18. Donhush
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Great stuff.. I already have Ozil/Bellerin/Ollson/Aguero/Silva and would be looking to bring in Payet after the break so GW33 still works better for me but if I didn't have those players I might consider wildcarding in 32.

  19. GS456
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    I like the idea of it. Would allow me triple cap in 34 as well then. (I have no bench boost) Could keep Vardy/Kane and use the 2FTs to bring in Lukaku as well then.

  20. Ayew Serious
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Very good article, interesting idea. I think I'll be sticking with 33 but very little splits the two. Would never have thought of this.

  21. VS10_
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Good idea. Really need to think about this today and tomorrow because if I decide to WC, then I would like to do it as early as possible and catch those Saturday night price rises.

    One of the concerns for me is South American players who will arrive late back from their qualifying matches and we might not get very clear news of their fitness before the weekend.

  22. MaxiRobriguez
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Going to drop this post in here as I think it'll get missed elsewhere and I'd like some feedback on it. Sorry for not having an avatar but hopefully the content of the post means it's worth reading and responding to!:

    I've been open to either WC on 33 or 36 for a while now and have been planning transfers to enable me to do either. I'll roll the transfer this week and hope for news of Everton Palace, but as it currently stands I think for people like me who have planned in advance to get a decent (if not perfect) DGW team for 34 should hold their nerve and do TC->WC->BB in 34, 36 and 37.

    Team for 34 is looking like:
    Hart*
    Rojo*, Bellerin*, Toby
    Sanchez*, Firminho*, Antonio*, Mahrez
    Aguero*, Lukaku*, Kane

    With the TC on Sanchez as a bit of a punt. That's 8 DGW players who I'm pretty sure are going to feature in everyone elses teams so I'm not getting left behind. I might use a hit to bring Barkley or Coleman in if Everton have a DGW in 35, but if not, I'm quite happy to go without their defensive assets, likewise Liverpool assets, who will probably score a similar amount to Toby.

    This strategy gives a full complement of players in 35, rolling out a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3, using the 1FT to move out Antonio or Lukaku, probably Antonio. Doesn't matter as wildcard the week after.

    It's then very possible to get a good 15 DGW players in 37, who yes, might be subject to more rotation, but crucially the BB chip needs to be used around perceived defensive returns, and there's more scope for CS' in 37 than there is in 34 as long as you cover 34 with at least 1x Arsenal def and 1x Man Utd def.

    This then leaves two FTs in the final game to bring back Sanchez and probably Kane.

    Whilst I can see the appeal of an earlier wildcard, I think the second option is just as favourable and may be season defining for those who are willing to go against the consensus on here. Certainly if you're chasing your ML and the leader has their chips in place and they read these forums then you should assume to protect their lead they'll follow the crowd, so your best bet is doing something different.

    Thoughts? Anyone else coming to later WC/BB conclusions?

  23. FPL Daniel
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Sooner the better IMO

  24. Walsh
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Nice read Ryan and it has been something I'd been thinking over. Thanks for taking the time to pen it. One thing I think that is worthwhile in pointing out is I don't think Watford is an easy fixture by any stretch for Arsenal. They are a tight unit and difficult to breakdown. Ozil and Bellerin a good shout but I don't get the feels that there is a battering in that one.

    That said, I think you make a solid argument for the merits of a GW32 WC certainly. Your kicker of that extra floating transfer ahead of 34 is crucial as well. Gives you an extra chance to be able to attend to a need on the team while still having 2 FT for GW35. That added flexibility may well prove to be critical.

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah I think its a point I should have touched on more in the article. Those who WC in GW33 MUST save a transfer prior to the DGW so it restricts them if someone gets injured.

  25. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Great article Ryan

  26. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    From what I can see, and forgive me cause I just read it quickly, is getting arsenal players v a Watford team they just lost to. I am not sure that is strong enough reason to go week early and risk two games that your picks may get injured / carded before the double

    1. John t penguin
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      *the only advantage is

    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      On an ordinary day Arsenal would beat Watford. Its a home tie and Arsenal can't afford to drop points in the league. Its a different kettle of fish compared to a cup tie.

      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        You could make similar arguments for United beating Everton and Liverpool beating Spurs. They are at home of course.

  27. Holy See
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Cheers Ryan. Excellent food for thought.

  28. Fergietime
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Not for me, A week can be a long time in the FPL. Wildcard has to be brand new before KO for me.

  29. A.T
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Interesting stuff Ryan, certainly something worth considering. Thanks.

  30. FPLzebub
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    I suggested a GW32 wildcard over on Triggerlips blog. Player price rises and falls are the main reason (although the fixtures and extra FT are nice bonuses). To make the BB chip worthwhile you are going to need a strong 15 man squad. I've got a current TV of 109.3M and money is tight so i'm going with the GW32 wildcard. If I had an extra 1.0M in TV I probably would wait till GW33.

    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Yep good point. For those of us with a low TV its a good opportunity to get ahead of the game in terms of price.